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South Carolina vs Texas A&M Odds & Prediction: The Team Total to Bet

South Carolina Gamecocks vs Texas A&M Aggies Odds

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It’s been a tough year for the South Carolina Gamecocks, as injuries, portal exoduses and a tough schedule have conspired to bring down Shane Beamer’s promising program.

The team has a 2-5 record and must now travel to College Station, where they’re two-touchdown underdogs against a Texas A&M team that fields one of the best defenses in the country.

Back-to-back losses for Jimbo Fisher’s Aggies have the team on the outside of the SEC title race, but a return to bowl eligibility looks likely for a program that missed the postseason last year.

Plus, this is a revenge spot after Texas A&M was punched in the mouth in Columbia last year.

On paper, it seems the Gamecocks don’t have what it takes to hang with the Aggies. But can the home favorites cover the spread, or are there other ways to approach this game? Let’s make a prediction and pick in this college football betting preview for South Carolina vs. Texas A&M on Saturday, Oct. 28.

Check out our NCAAF Betting Hub for more college football previews, predictions, news and analysis.

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While 2022 was a memorable year for the Gamecocks with two upsets over top-10 rivals and 2024 will welcome in a highly-ranked recruiting class, the 2023 season is forgettably sandwiched in the middle.

South Carolina has struggled in the trenches on both sides of the ball, and things are looking dire on the field right now.

Quarterback Spencer Rattler has been tough despite being under siege most of this season behind a leaky offensive line.

His raw stats are the highlight of the SC offense. He’s recorded 1,941 yards and 11 touchdowns to five interceptions on the season, and he owns a 72.5 QBR while posting a few games with impressive yardage totals.

But the passing offense is just middle of the pack for FBS, ranking 47th in explosive pass rate and 64th in Passing Success Rate. The explosiveness drops to 97th in the country on passing downs, as poor protection breaks down when pass-rushers are able to tee off in clear throwing situations.

Wide receiver Xavier Legette has been a star in the injury absence of Antwane “Juice” Wells.

The big-bodied game-breaker ranks third in the SEC in receiving yards. However, he did enter concussion protocol last week against Missouri and did not finish the game.

Carolina ranks last in FBS, averaging 5.0 sacks allowed per game. The Aggies rank fourth in the nation in sacks, putting opposing passers on the ground 4.2 times per game.

The rushing offense has been the worst in Power 5, ranking outside the top 100 in FBS in explosives, Success Rate and EPA. Division II transfer Mario Anderson has been a bright spot at running back with 396 yards on the ground, including a 75-yarder against Tennessee.

The defense has been poor, too, sitting 89th in SP+. While the Gamecocks are middle of the pack (63rd in FBS) in preventing explosives, teams can matriculate the ball down the field with ease, as they rank 123rd nationally in Success Rate. They create little Havoc, coming in at 105th in the nation in the metric. They offered very little resistance against Missouri and Florida in the past two weeks.

Defensive coordinator Clayton White is finding his seat rather toasty in Columbia, and its not just the city’s famously scorching climate.

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The Aggies have established some competency on offense this year while still fielding an excellent defense — a nice turnaround from last season’s Iowa-lite effort. Texas A&M’s offense ranks 36th in SP+ as the defense remains top-10 in that metric.

The offense has slipped a bit recently with Max Johnson at the sticks replacing injured blue-chip quarterback Conner Weigman.

Johnson has completed only 56.8% of his attempts, and his yardage total trails Weigman significantly despite only one fewer attempt. Johnson is also too sack-prone, with 10 already on the season compared to only three taken by Weigman.

Like the Gamecocks, the passing game is ahead of the ground game for the Aggies. They rank 120th in the nation in explosive rushes and spread the ball around to a trio of backs.

The stars for the Aggies are out wide, where Evan Stewart and Ainias Smith both sport exactly 451 receiving yards on the season. Stewart has found the end zone four times through the air, and Smith has been a game-breaker on special teams as well.

The defense is excellent. It ranks third in the nation in Havoc creation and is ferocious rushing the passer — two things that are particular weaknesses for the Gamecocks.

The A&M defense has one weakness: passing down explosives, where it ranks 131st. However, the South Carolina offense is not equipped to attack that split as we previously noted.

Parker Fleming’s ECKEL stat paints a particularly dire picture for the Gamecock offense against this Aggie stop unit. South Carolina is only 97th in the country in ECKEL rate (scoring chances) but at least overperforms in Points Per ECKEL at 46th.

But A&M thrives in that measure, too, ranking 28th in ECKEL rate allowed and fifth in the nation in points per ECKEL.

South Carolina will struggle to find scoring chances, and when it does, it will meet an A&M defense that excels in rising to the moment.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how South Carolina and Texas A&M match up statistically:

South Carolina Offense vs. Texas A&M Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 109 4
Line Yards 99 4
Pass Success 64 58
Havoc 118 2
Finishing Drives 76 3
Quality Drives 74 26
Texas A&M Offense vs. South Carolina Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 49 105
Line Yards 65 76
Pass Success 56 127
Havoc 52 121
Finishing Drives 64 65
Quality Drives 30 121
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 43 105
PFF Coverage 119 66
Special Teams SP+ 28 99
Middle 8 77 35
Seconds per Play 26.0 (52) 27.4 (76)
Rush Rate 47.5% (120) 48.6% (105)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

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This will be another long road trip for the Gamecocks.

A&M will be out for revenge after last year’s game in Columbia. Its defense will feast against an offense that’s poor — particularly when matching up against A&M’s strengths.

With such a large number, I’ll avoid any chance of a backdoor or trusting A&M’s inconsistent pass offense to do its part. Instead, I will play the under on South Carolina’s team total.

The Gamecocks will struggle to move the ball, and the Aggies’ pass rush will have its way putting Rattler to the ground. I like this bet even more if Legette doesn’t go, but even with him, this offense has struggled to put points on the board against every quality defense.

Give me the under on South Carolina’s total points — currently 19.5 at FanDuel — and I’ll play it down to 17.5.

Pick: South Carolina Team Total 19.5 (Play to 17.5)

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Dan Keegan

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