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Wyoming vs Boise State Odds & Picks: Betting Value on Over/Under

Wyoming vs Boise State Odds

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Let’s head west to Boise, Idaho, where the Boise State Broncos will host the Wyoming Cowboys.

We have quite a few mismatches on paper, so let’s break down both of these teams and make a Wyoming vs. Boise State prediction.

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The Cowboys have been a completely different team on the road this season. Normally, I’d be a little hesitant about their chances in this game, but I like a lot of the advantages the Cowboys have on the offensive side of the ball.

Wyoming isn’t an offensive powerhouse, but it will be going against a Broncos defense that has been shredded this season. With a top-70 ranking in Rushing and Passing Success Rate, I expect the Cowboys to consistently move the ball down the field.

For some insight, Wyoming was able to move the ball methodically down the field in its most recent matchup against Air Force. In this matchup, the Cowboys will be going against a Boise defense that’s in the bottom 25 in Rushing and Passing Success Rate.

Quarterback Andrew Peasley continues to improve, so I expect him to hang a big number against the Broncos’ defense. The Broncos are 125th in Defensive Finishing Drives, so the Cowboys should be able to score an ample amount of touchdowns as opposed to settling for field goals.

Defensively, I have some questions about this matchup. The Cowboys are one of the worst defensive units against the run, ranking 125th in Rushing Success Rate.

This defensive front constantly gets bullied and ranks 119th in Line Yards. They’ll be in big trouble against an explosive Broncos rushing attack, which is seventh in the nation in Rushing Success Rate.

The secondary hasn’t been as bad as the run defense, but the numbers still aren’t pretty. If the Broncos dominate on the ground, I have doubts about Wyoming’s secondary holding up against heavy play-action passes.

I have more than enough confidence in the offense, but the defensive questions scare me enough to stay away from backing Wyoming in this spot.

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I’m stunned head coach Andy Avalos was not fired during the bye week. Many fans have been calling for his job ever since he benched quarterback Taylen Green in favor of Maddux Madsen.

Additionally, the Broncos’ collapse against Colorado State was one of the worst losses I’ve seen in a long time.

I’m assuming we’ll see Green back under center this week because this offense is way more explosive when he plays. I wrote about the Broncos’ rushing attack earlier, but Green is a key component of that equation as his rushing ability is extremely lethal.

Of course, it’d be disrespectful to bypass the incredible rushing ability of halfback Ashton Jeanty, who carried the ball 31 times for 212 yards and three touchdowns against Colorado State. He’s one of the most electric players in college football that nobody talks about.

The Broncos will need to score at will if they’re going to win this game because their defense can’t stop a nosebleed. I’m also concerned about a couple of injuries on the defensive line that could impact the pass rush.

This unit is 125th in PFF tackling and continues to get embarrassed each week.

With home-field advantage, I definitely lean toward backing the Broncos. However, their terrible defense terrifies me, so I think I’ll stay away from backing a side.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Wyoming and Boise State match up statistically:

Wyoming Offense vs. Boise State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 66 115
Line Yards 58 99
Pass Success 60 119
Havoc 49 108
Finishing Drives 61 125
Quality Drives 47 110
Boise State Offense vs. Wyoming Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 7 95
Line Yards 19 116
Pass Success 75 83
Havoc 55 50
Finishing Drives 58 66
Quality Drives 60 117
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 93 125
PFF Coverage 38 109
Special Teams SP+ 59 55
Middle 8 70 37
Seconds per Play 30.2 (118) 27.0 (69)
Rush Rate 59.3% (24) 54.7% (47)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

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I absolutely love the over in this game. I’m worried that Wyoming’s offense is a complete snail, but I also envision a ton of explosive plays against these awful defenses.

Both of these teams run the ball often, but I think Peasley will get more passing attempts against Boise State’s awful secondary. Even if Green doesn’t start for the Broncos, I still trust Jeanty to break a few big runs and put up a few touchdowns.

Additionally, both of these teams do a good job at Finishing Drives. Instead of stalling and settling for field goals, I expect a lot of touchdowns to be scored.

This number has steamed down all week, but I’m now starting to see some sharp money come across on the over. I’m riding with the wise guys and fading the public, so let’s score a lot of points on the blue turf.

[quickslip picktext=”Pick: Over 48.5 (Play to 50)” linktext=”Bet the Over Instantly at FanDuel With QuickSlip!” link=”https://switchboard.actionnetwork.com/v1/deeplink?marketId=42.401442694&selectionId=7017916&context=qs-articles” linkfollow=”false” bookthumbnaillogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/392973_FanDuel.png”][/quickslip]

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John Feltman

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