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georgia state panthers vs georgia southern eagles-odds-prediction-college football-picks-thursday oct 26

Georgia State vs Georgia Southern Picks, Prediction & Odds | Our Top Sun Belt Bet

Georgia State Panthers vs Georgia Southern Eagles Odds

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Thursday Night Football with the Fun Belt? And both teams have great offenses? Yes, please.

Let’s head out to Statesboro, Georgia, where we have a terrific in-state Sun Belt Conference matchup. The Georgia Southern Eagles will look to build off of their win last week when they host the Georgia State Panthers.

These schools are a three-hour drive down I-75 away from each other, so these rivals will be extra juiced for this one. Plus, the winner of this game will be in the driver’s seat for a seat in the Sun Belt Championship game.

These offenses sure know how to put some points on the board, but what’s even more intriguing is the contrasting styles these teams possess.

Let’s break down both of these teams and uncover the right betting angle with a prediction for Georgia State vs. Georgia Southern.

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[subheader sizedown=”false” center=”false” text=”Georgia State Panthers” subtext=”” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/gst.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/odds/georgia-state-panthers” link1follow=”false”][/subheader]

I was really impressed with Georgia State’s defense last week, as it dominated the Louisiana trench from the opening kickoff.

The Panthers won the game, 20-17, and they seemed to have bounced back since their lone loss of the season against Troy on Sept. 30.

Louisiana managed to rack up only 289 total yards, and 124 of those were notably gained through the air — the majority of which came when the game was already out of reach.

This is something to keep in mind for this particular matchup since the Eagles are 132nd in rush rate. You can pretty much eliminate any run game from the equation, which should set up these Panthers pass-rushers nicely.

If you have yet to watch Georgia State this season, this Thursday evening is a great opportunity to do so. The rushing duo of quarterback Darren Grainger and tailback Marcus Carroll is as electric of a tandem as it gets.

Grainger wasn’t too effective last week on the ground, managing only 18 yards rushing. However, he remained efficient through the air, completing 18-of-22 passes for 211 yards and two touchdowns.

It’ll be interesting to see how the Panthers’ rushing attack does against a stout Eagles front. Georgia Southern ranks 46th in Defensive Rushing Success Rate and 61st in Line Yards.

If the Panthers can establish the run game early, that’ll set their passing offense up for even more success against a weak Eagles secondary. I like their chances of capitalizing past the 40-yard line, as the Eagles sit 105th in Defensive Finishing Drives.

Although I have concerns about the Panthers’ secondary against this pass-heavy Eagles offense, I still believe they should cause some drives to stall. Despite ranking 99th in Defensive Havoc, Georgia State comes in at 50th in Defensive Finishing Drives.

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[subheader sizedown=”false” center=”false” text=”Georgia Southern Eagles” subtext=”” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/gso.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/odds/georgia-southern-eagles” link1follow=”false”][/subheader]

I thought Georgia Southern would bounce back big last week against Louisiana-Monroe, and that was certainly the case in the early going. The Eagles got off to a hot start offensively, and they led 28-7 early on.

However, Clay Helton’s team went to sleep in the second half, and at one point, their large lead was clipped to three with under 10 minutes to go in the fourth quarter. The Eagles ultimately held on to win, 38-28, but this second-half effort is something to monitor heading into this matchup.

This is a terrific matchup for quarterback Davis Brin to expose this awful Georgia State secondary. He has been a bit turnover-happy of late, which isn’t too surprising given his history. However, I expect Brin to have plenty of time to throw and the Eagles to sustain long, successful drives against a Panthers defensive unit that struggles to keep teams out of the end zone.

Georgia Southern’s lack of running plays should not change its offensive upside in this matchup, considering the Panthers’ defensive strength lies in the trench.

Defensively, the Eagles could cause a few turnovers this evening. They rank 16th in Havoc, so getting into the backfield should set this Georgia State offense up for some long down and distances.

I was happy to see that Georgia Southern sits 26th in PFF tackling, which is massive against a Georgia State offense that relies on explosive run plays. If the Eagles are going to win this game, they will have to shut down the Panthers’ rushing attack, which is the bread and butter of their offense.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Georgia State and Georgia Southern match up statistically:

Georgia State Offense vs. Georgia Southern Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 106 46
Line Yards 94 61
Pass Success 30 70
Havoc 60 16
Finishing Drives 57 105
Quality Drives 45 48
Georgia Southern Offense vs. Georgia State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 13 31
Line Yards 18 37
Pass Success 21 99
Havoc 24 93
Finishing Drives 86 50
Quality Drives 14 54
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 92 26
PFF Coverage 110 67
Special Teams SP+ 35 79
Middle 8 127 19
Seconds per Play 25.6 (47) 24.5 (23)
Rush Rate 59.4% (18) 37.8% (132)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Georgia State vs Georgia Southern” subtext=”Betting Pick & Prediction” center=”false” logo1url=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/252389_action-logo-check.png”][/subheader]

This is such a tough game to pick a side, so in a coin-flip type of matchup, I definitely lean with the home team. As much as I love Shawn Elliott’s Panthers, I think the Eagles will get the job done at home.

I hate backing Brin to begin with, but I think he’ll be able to take advantage of this weak Georgia State secondary. I’m also a fan of the Eagles’ Havoc advantage on the defensive side of the ball, which should give the Panthers’ rush-heavy offense fits all night long.

There’s always the worry that the Eagles will take their foot off the gas once again, but I think Brin should finally clean up the turnovers this week. Georgia Southern will have to reach the end zone more often instead of settling for field goals, which is something that’s been a struggle all season.

Ultimately, I think it’s safe to back Helton’s team at home here unless Carroll and Grainger go bananas on the ground. However, I have faith in this Eagles offense to carry the team even if that’s the case.

[quickslip picktext=”Pick: Georgia Southern ML -125 or Better” linktext=”Bet the Eagles Instantly at FanDuel With QuickSlip!” link=”https://switchboard.actionnetwork.com/v1/deeplink?marketId=42.401318014&selectionId=3296868&context=qs-articles” linkfollow=”false” bookthumbnaillogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/392973_FanDuel.png”][/quickslip]

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