Action Network

new mexico state aggies vs louisiana tech bulldogs-prediction-picks-college football-betting-odds-tuesday october 24

New Mexico State vs Louisiana Tech Prediction | Our Top Tuesday Pick

New Mexico State vs Louisiana Tech Odds

[gamematchup league=”ncaaf” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/nms.png” awayname=”New Mexico State” awayslug=”new-mexico-state-aggies” homelogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/11/2021-Louisiana-Tech-Logo-100.png” homename=”Louisiana Tech” homeslug=”louisiana-tech-bulldogs” date=”Tuesday, Oct. 24″ time=”7 p.m. ET” network=”CBS Sports Network” col1text=”Spread” col2text=”Total” col3text=”Moneyline” col1awaytext=”+3″ col1awayline=”-110″ col1hometext=”-3″ col1homeline=”-110″ col2awaytext=”55.5″ col2hometext=”55.5″ col2awayline=”-105o / -115u” col2homeline=”-105o / -115u” col3awaytext=”+125″ col3hometext=”-150″ col3awayline=”” col3homeLine=”” bookname=”BetMGM” bookthumbnaillogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/902516_MGM2.png” bookreviewslug=”betmgm”][/gamematchup]

New Mexico State visits Louisiana Tech on Tuesday night for a Conference USA matchup.

The Aggies have racked up three consecutive league wins and enter this game at 5-3 overall and 3-1 in CUSA. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs have lost four of their past five and are 3-5 in their second season under head coach Sonny Cumbie.

This line jumped out to me right away, and I feel it’s a great spot to back the visiting underdog in this Tuesday night college football matchup.

_InlineAdBlock

Check out our NCAAF Betting Hub for more college football previews, predictions, news and analysis.

[subheader sizedown=”false” center=”false” text=”New Mexico State Aggies” subtext=”” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/nms.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/odds/new-mexico-state-aggies” link1follow=”false”][/subheader]

After a season-opening loss to UMass, expectations lowered for head coach Jerry Kill’s team. However, NMSU is making another late-season surge, just as it did a season ago.

The Aggies have won and covered the spread in their past three CUSA games against FIU, Sam Houston and UTEP. In fact, Kill’s squad is riding a five-game streak of covering against the spread and sits at 6-2 ATS on the year.

The school now has a great opportunity to push for a place in the Conference USA Championship in its first year in the league.

One of the key reasons for this solid run has been quarterback Diego Pavia, who’s tied for the most passing touchdowns in CUSA with 16.

With the defense also starting to play like the 2022 unit, Kill has built a solid program in his short time with the school.

[subheader sizedown=”false” center=”false” text=”Louisiana Tech Bulldogs” subtext=”” logo1url=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/11/2021-Louisiana-Tech-Logo-100.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/odds/louisiana-tech-bulldogs” link1follow=”false”][/subheader]

Conversely, Cumbie is still trying to figure out his best quarterback option, as he’s rotated between Jack Turner and Hank Bachmeier.

Bachmeier, a Boise State transfer, was impressive in relief in the loss to Middle Tennessee, completing 16-of-24 passes for 178 yards and a touchdown.

Regardless of who starts under center, there’s no question who their top target will be. Receiver Smoke Harris is having another outstanding season and leads CUSA in receptions per game (7.4) to go along with 614 receiving yards and three scores.

Harris is the only FBS player with 2,000 receiving yards, 800 kickoff return yards and 600 punt return yards in his career. He’ll need to have another huge game here to give the Bulldogs a chance.

[appcard imageurl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/509930_NCAAFArticleCard.png” cta=”The must-have app for college football bettors” firstupsell=”The best NCAAF betting scoreboard” secondupsell=”Free picks from proven pros” thirdupsell=”Live win probabilities for your bets” buttontext=”DOWNLOAD NOW” buttonurl=”https://action.onelink.me/qhpb/4fb1273b”][/appcard]

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”New Mexico State vs Louisiana Tech” subtext=”Matchup Analysis” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/nms.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/odds/new-mexico-state-aggies” link1follow=”false” logo2url=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/11/2021-Louisiana-Tech-Logo-100.png” link2=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/odds/louisiana-tech-bulldogs” link2follow=”false”][/subheader]

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how New Mexico State and Louisiana Tech match up statistically:

New Mexico State Offense vs. Louisiana Tech Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 5 81
Line Yards 2 75
Pass Success 52 20
Havoc 47 48
Finishing Drives 49 109
Quality Drives 41 75
Louisiana Tech Offense vs. New Mexico State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 100 79
Line Yards 116 51
Pass Success 88 77
Havoc 109 42
Finishing Drives 73 77
Quality Drives 76 60
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 118 27
PFF Coverage 98 14
Special Teams SP+ 72 81
Middle 8 43 62
Seconds per Play 30.6 (128) 27.1 (70)
Rush Rate 57.4% (32) 48.4% (100)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”New Mexico State vs Louisiana Tech” subtext=”Betting Pick & Prediction” center=”false” logo1url=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/252389_action-logo-check.png”][/subheader]

I feel oddsmakers have the wrong team favored, so I’ll take the Aggies on the moneyline at +120 at BetMGM and would play that to -120.

Bet New Mexico State vs. Louisiana Tech with the latest BetMGM bonus code.

It’s clear that the weakest unit on the field is going to be Louisiana Tech’s defense, especially against the run. Only WKU allows more rushing yards per game than the Bulldogs in CUSA.

The LA Tech defense also ranks in the bottom 20 among non-Power 5 programs in both Rush PPA and rush explosiveness.

The Aggies are going to be able to expose the Bulldogs with a solid rushing attack that leads the conference with an average of 6.1 yards per carry.

Meanwhile, NMSU is also first among all non-Power 5 teams in multiple categories on the ground, including Rush Success, Rushing PPA and Line Yards.

Along with his passing ability, Pavia has been a great runner this year and leads the team with 527 rushing yards.

I was high on the Aggies coming into the year, and after the opening blunder, I like how they’ve come together in conference play. I don’t think we’ll get them as an underdog too many more times this season.

[quickslip picktext=”Pick: New Mexico State ML +120 (Play to -120)” linktext=”Bet NMSU Instantly at FanDuel With QuickSlip!” link=”https://switchboard.actionnetwork.com/v1/deeplink?marketId=42.401092336&selectionId=602741&context=qs-articles” linkfollow=”false” bookthumbnaillogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/392973_FanDuel.png”][/quickslip]

What is QuickSlip?

QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Posted

in

by

Brett Pund

Tags:

, , , ,