Lions vs Raiders Odds: Monday Night Football Pick, Prediction

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Lions vs. Raiders odds have Detroit as a seven-point favorite at most sportsbooks, as of 5:15 p.m. ET on Monday afternoon, with the over/under sitting between 45.5 and 46.5.

Both teams were embarrassed in Week 7, but at least Detroit was blown out by a quality Ravens team. Las Vegas spent last week getting beaten by the Bears, who were led by a backup quarterback.

Let’s break down the game and get to my Lions vs. Raiders prediction, which is on the spread.

[quickslip picktext=”Pick: Lions -7 (-112)” linktext=”Tail Raybon at FanDuel With QuickSlip” link=”https://switchboard.actionnetwork.com/v1/deeplink?marketId=42.400612091&selectionId=50193&context=qs-articles” linkfollow=”false” bookthumbnaillogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/392973_FanDuel.png”][/quickslip]

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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Lions vs. Raiders Preview” subtext=”Matchup Analysis” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/det.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/odds/detroit-lions” link1follow=”false” logo2url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/oak.png” link2=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/odds/las-vegas-raiders” link2follow=”false”][/subheader]

A week after scoring a season-low six points in a 38-6 loss to the Ravens, the Lions offense is in a bounce-back spot against a Raiders defense that ranks 25th in DVOA.

Jared Goff took a season-high five sacks last week but should have time against a Raider pass rush that ranks 30th in pressure rate (16.3%) despite the presence of Maxx Crosby. Goff is averaging just 5.8 yards per attempt with two touchdowns and three interceptions under pressure this season, but from a clean pocket, he has posted 8.1 yards per attempt with nine touchdowns and one interception.

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Jimmy Garoppolo will make his sixth start for the Raiders against a Lions defense that ranks No. 9 in DVOA against the pass.

Detroit generated pressure at an above-average rate (23.9%, 14th) despite blitzing at the third-lowest rate (19.8%), and the ability to get pressure with a four-man rush will be key in this matchup. Garoppolo’s passer rating is 109.1 from a clean pocket but 11.0 under pressure this season.

Despite having familiarity with Josh McDaniels’ system and enjoying the services of Davante Adams, Garoppolo has experienced a drop-off in performance relative to his time with the 49ers: His yards per attempt has dropped from 8.3 to 7.3 while his interception rate has gone from 2.6% to 5.4%.

One thing Garoppolo does not have in Las Vegas that he had with San Francisco is the benefit of a run game. The Raiders rank dead last in yards per carry (3.0), rushing yards per game (68.6) and rushing DVOA (-30.5%). That doesn’t figure to change against a Lions run defense that ranks 10th in yards per carry allowed (3.7), second in yards per game allowed (76.3), and eighth in DVOA (-19.0%).

All DVOA data via FTN. All defensive pressure data via Pro Football Reference. All other data via PFF unless otherwise noted.

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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Lions vs. Raiders Prediction” subtext=”My Betting Pick” center=”false” logo1url=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/252389_action-logo-check.png”][/subheader]

The Lions have been fairly predictable this year, beating up on bad teams but struggling against top-end competition. Detroit has faced three top-10 teams in DVOA, which resulted in a close win (21-20 vs. third-ranked Kansas City), a close loss (37-31 vs. ninth-ranked Seattle), and a blowout loss (38-6 vs. first-ranked Baltimore). Against teams more similar to the 30th-ranked Raiders, they’ve won by 14 or more each time.

• Week 3 vs. ATL (24th): Won 20-6
• Week 4 at GB (25th): Won 34-20
• Week 5 vs. CAR (32nd): Won 42-24
• Week 6 at TB (20th): Won 20-6

History suggests this will indeed be a bounce-back spot for the Lions. According to our Action labs data, teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better coming off a loss by 20 or more points are 80-39-1 (67%) ATS since 2003, covering by 5.4 points per game.

Favorites by more than 5.5 points in this spot are 29-9 (76%) ATS, also covering by 5.5 points per game.

[quickslip picktext=”Pick: Lions -7 (-112)” linktext=”Tail Raybon at FanDuel With QuickSlip” link=”https://switchboard.actionnetwork.com/v1/deeplink?marketId=42.400612091&selectionId=50193&context=qs-articles” linkfollow=”false” bookthumbnaillogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/392973_FanDuel.png”][/quickslip]

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