Tim Elliott vs. Muhammad Mokaev Odds
Saturday’s featured UFC 294 preliminary-card bout is also its lone flyweight matchup as Tim Elliott takes on Muhammad Mokaev.
Elliott, who’s the No. 10-ranked contender in the UFC flyweight rankings, is a former title challenger who’s tangled with a who’s who of the division during a UFC career that’s stretched the better of a decade.
However, he’s is a big underdog to undefeated Mokaev, who’s ranked No. 11 but quickly moving up the ranks with four submissions in his past five wins.
Here’s my look at Elliott vs Mokaev at UFC 294.
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Tale of the Tape
| Elliott | Mokaev | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 20-12-1 | 10-0 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 12:40 | 11:14 |
| Height | 5’7″ | 5’7″ |
| Weight | 126 pounds | 126 pounds |
| Reach | 66 inches | 70 inches |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 12/24/1986 | 7/30/2000 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.47 | 1.14 |
| SS Accuracy | 44% | 54% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.76 | 0.87 |
| SS Defense | 56% | 61% |
| Take Down Avg | 3.88 | 7.34 |
| TD Acc | 47% | 53% |
| TD Def | 60% | 0% |
| Submission Avg | 0.9 | 1.3 |
Another fight on this card with a significant age discrepancy; Mokaev is 14 years younger than Elliot.
As I mentioned earlier in the Dudakova-Frey fight, when there is at least a decade between UFC opponents, the younger fighter has won 72.2% of the time, at average odds of -143 (58.8% implied).
I’m not as high on Mokaev’s potential as other analysts, and I have concerns about his physical condition after seemingly having his knee shredded in his last fight against Jafel Filho in March.
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However, Elliott looks extremely sucked out cutting to flyweight and is much older (36) than the divisional average (32).
Mokaev should be the much quicker athlete; he owns a four-inch reach advantage and should win most of the grappling exchanges, and that’s where I expect this bout to take place.
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Elliott vs. Mokaev Pick
Elliott generally wins fights by out-wrestling opponents after attacking them from strange angles on the feet.
If he doesn’t win the grappling exchanges against Mokaev, his upside in this matchup is a close decision where he outlands Mokaev on volume. Conversely, Mokaev seemingly has all of the finishing upside.
For all of Elliott’s offensive grappling success, he has lost via submission four times in the UFC, and he consistently leaves openings for opponents when he’s getting the worst of the exchanges.
I also question his durability as he continues to cut to flyweight in his late 30s after more than 30 professional bouts.
I projected Mokaev’s submission prop closer to +180 and would play that winning method down to +195.
The Pick: Muhammad Mokaev Wins by Submission (+205, 0.25u) at BetRivers
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