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North Texas vs Tulane Pick & Prediction: Can Mean Green Hang Around?

North Texas vs Tulane Odds

[gamematchup league=”NCAAF” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/ntx.png” awayname=”North Texas” awayslug=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/odds/north-texas-mean-green” homelogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/07/Tulane-Green-Wave-Logo-Updated-2023.png” homename=”Tulane” homeslug=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/odds/tulane-green-wave” date=”Saturday, Oct. 21″ time=”3:30 p.m. ET” network=”ESPN2″ col1text=”Spread” col2text=”Total” col3text=”Moneyline” col1awayText=”+20.5″ col1awayLine=”-115″ col1homeText=”-20.5″ col1homeLine=”-105″ col2awayText=”63.5″ col2homeText=”63.5″ col2awayLine=”-110o / -110u” col2homeLine=”-110o / -110u” col3awayText=”+775″ col3homeText=”-1400″ col3awayLine=”” col3homeLine=”” bookname=”BetMGM” bookthumbnaillogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/902516_MGM2.png” bookreviewslug=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/online-sports-betting/reviews/betmgm”][/gamematchup]

In their first matchup as conference rivals and meeting second all-time, the North Texas Mean Green head to New Orleans to face the Tulane Green Wave.

North Texas is coming off a dominant win over Temple last week in front of its home fans. It’s been an up-and-down season for the Mean Green, starting 0-2, but they’ve won three of their last four.

It’s homecoming at Yulman Stadium, and the Green Wave faithful are ready to rock.

Tulane is having itself a really solid season, winning four in a row to add to its 5-1 record. Most recently, it took down Memphis this past Friday and is standing atop the American Conference.

Where does the betting value lie in this AAC showdown? Let’s dive into our North Texas vs Tulane Pick & Prediction.

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[subheader sizedown=”false” center=”false” text=”North Texas Mean Green” subtext=”” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/ntx.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/odds/north-texas-mean-green” link1follow=”false”][/subheader]

North Texas has one of the more explosive offenses in the country. In all facets of that side of the ball, the Mean Green have some high-end weapons that make this team scary for opposing defenses.

For the most part, Chandler Rogers has been a pretty efficient quarterback for UNT. He completes his passes at a 63% rate, and while he could be more accurate, he hardly turns the ball over.

What he does have is Ja’Mori Maclin, who’s a hidden gem in college football. Maclin has made up for a large amount of the receiving game, averaging an astounding 23.5 yards per catch while finding the end zone eight times.

The rushing attack has also been pretty effective this season, ranking 20th in explosiveness. UNT rolls out a solid committee led by Ayo Adeyi, who averages 7.5 yards per carry. Behind him, Oscar Adaway and Isaiah Johnson have both contributed as well.

It’s definitely a strong unit, ranking 46th in Rushing Success Rate and 24th in PPA.

Conversely, it’s truly appalling how bad this defense has been all season. That Mean Green unit hasn’t been so mean, allowing 36.4 points per game.

In standard downs, North Texas sits 129th in Success Rate and 131st in PPA. If you’re doing the math, that is… not good.

The biggest hit defending is against the run. It’s literally the worst in the country, allowing 274 rushing yards per game. Luckily for North Texas, Tulane hasn’t been incredibly efficient on the ground without Tyjae Spears.

Through the air, defending has been a lot easier. When the Mean Green need a stop against the pass, they get it, ranking 23rd in Passing Down Success Rate and 36th in PPA. Having a few decent defensive backs in Logan Wilson, Phil Hill and Jaylen Smith doesn’t hurt.

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[subheader sizedown=”false” center=”false” text=”Tulane Green Wave” subtext=”” logo1url=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/07/Tulane-Green-Wave-Logo-Updated-2023.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/odds/tulane-green-wave” link1follow=”false”][/subheader]

For Tulane, Michael Pratt has been such an integral part of this program. He missed a few weeks due to injury, but he never lost a step when he returned.

Pratt has been one of the more dominant quarterbacks in the nation, completing 70% of his passes with nine touchdowns and only one turnover.

Even with Pratt out for two weeks, the passing game still thrived. Tulane ranks 28th in explosiveness, 33rd in Success Rate and 26th in PPA.

Having the weapons in the air doesn’t hurt, of course. The three-headed monster of Lawrence Keys III, Jha’Quan Jackson, and Chris Brazzell have been integral parts to this attack. All three average over 17 yards per catch, amounting to 11 touchdowns altogether.

With Spears in the NFL, the Green Wave are still trying to find their identity on the ground.

Makhi Hughes has been more than serviceable for Tulane, averaging 5.1 yards per carry and finding the end zone four times. The problem is, no one else has stepped up to form a committee. The second leading rusher is Pratt, which is concerning should Hughes ever miss time.

Because of the lack of a committee, this rushing attack has been ineffective. The Green Wave rank 118th in rush Success Rate and 102nd in explosiveness.

This defense is also hit-or-miss. It ranks 55th in Success Rate on standard downs, but the Green Wave have some big playmakers.

There are some dogs on the defensive line. The trio of Patrick Jenkins, Darius Hodges and Devean Deal are all problems for opposing teams, accounting for 12 sacks and 19.5 tackles for loss.

However, Tulane has a very hard time defending the pass, ranking 105th in Passing Success Rate and 87th in PPA.

Stopping the run hasn’t been a problem, though, as the Wave sit 28th in PPA.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how North Texas and Tulane match up statistically:

North Texas Offense vs. Tulane Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 59 27
Line Yards 47 32
Pass Success 57 86
Havoc 71 12
Finishing Drives 31 37
Quality Drives 48 32
Tulane Offense vs. North Texas Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 119 129
Line Yards 50 123
Pass Success 27 75
Havoc 67 128
Finishing Drives 76 118
Quality Drives 30 117
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 80 80
PFF Coverage 80 75
Special Teams SP+ 26 35
Middle 8 94 83
Seconds per Play 23.6 (12) 29.5 (113)
Rush Rate 52.7% (89) 59.5% (22)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”North Texas vs Tulane” subtext=”Betting Pick & Prediction” center=”false” logo1url=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/252389_action-logo-check.png”][/subheader]

I really want to like North Texas, but that defense is alarmingly bad. Besides that, it’s hard not to like the Mean Green because they’re always due to create some fireworks when they take the gridiron.

The connection between Rogers and Maclin is special, as they connected for 163 yards and two scores in their win over Temple last week. That duo can really cause some problems for Tulane’s secondary.

To go with Maclin, UNT also has Roderic Burns, Trey Cleveland and Damon Ward, who receive a solid amount of volume as well.

Similarly, Tulane shouldn’t have a problem generating plays through the air. I expect a massive game from one of Keys, Jackson or Brazzell.

I like Hughes as a back, but the lack of depth makes me believe that the run won’t serve a prominent role in this game.

Vegas seems to think this game has blowout potential by putting the spread at 20.5. I’d caution against riding with the Green Wave at that number, though.

I fully believe Tulane will come out on top, but the defense is suspect. With how explosive North Texas’ passing game is, the Mean Green may put up a lot more points than many think.

They average almost 30 points per game for a reason, and what’s going to prevent them from doing so in this game? I’m fading the favorite here.

[quickslip picktext=”Pick: North Texas +20.5 (-110)” linktext=”Bet the UNT Instantly at FanDuel With QuickSlip!” link=”https://switchboard.actionnetwork.com/v1/deeplink?marketId=42.400458542&selectionId=617088&context=qs-articles” linkfollow=”false” bookthumbnaillogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/392973_FanDuel.png”][/quickslip]

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Greg Liodice

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