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UTSA vs Florida Atlantic Odds & Prediction: Value on Roadrunners?

UTSA vs Florida Atlantic Odds

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Week 8 brings the UTSA Roadrunners to beautiful Boca Raton, Florida to face the Owls of Florida Atlantic.

Both teams currently sit at 2-0 in the AAC and have dreams of reaching a conference championship.

UTSA has recently existed as the powerhouse in the conference, but the Owls have a different idea this season.

The Owls will look to dethrone the traditional powerhouse at home this week. Do they have the team and the coaching staff to do it?

Let’s dive into the advantages for each side in UTSA vs. Florida Atlantic.

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Following a rout in Knoxville a few weeks ago, the Roadrunners have hit their stride with double-digit wins at Temple and at home against the Blazers of UAB.

They’re poised to defend their throne atop the conference, and they’re off to a good start at 2-0 in conference play.

FAU should be their toughest test to date, especially on the road.

Frank Harris is back and fully healthy. It’s shown in the recent games, as the Roadrunners posted two big wins the last two weeks.

Harris was phenomenal for UTSA last year and looks to return to form after throwing for 509 yards and five touchdowns — while rushing for an additional touchdown — in the last two weeks.

The passing game for the Roadrunners ranks 46th in the country and should continue to climb — so long as Harris stays healthy.

The running game does prove to be a major weakness of this offense (108th in Success Rate). Due to the heavy involvement of Harris, the running game is also pretty explosive at 21st overall, or at least explosive enough to keep opposing defenses honest.

Look for Harris to be effective, but the key in this one will be if UTSA can break off a few runs to ease the pressure off of its quarterback

The UTSA defense has been slightly better than its offense, but that will continue to even out the more Harris plays. The key factor for this defense is its ability to shut down the run. The unit ranks 36th against the run, which is extremely impressive for a non-Power Five team.

The Roadrunners struggle against the short passing game (101st in Success Rate), but they limit the big plays well, which will be important in what should be a close one against FAU.

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The Owls also sit at 2-0 in the conference with wins over Tulsa and South Florida. This will be their toughest conference game, but they’ve been battle tested this season.

They currently have losses at Clemson and at Illinois, but this one will be different against a familiar foe.

FAU has had UTSA’s number in the past though, as it’s 2-0 in its last two matchups.

The Owls’ offense looked awesome last week against USF. Daniel Richardson threw for nearly 400 yards to go along with three touchdowns and one interception.

I’m not sure if we can trust the Owls’ offense for another 56-point outburst against a much more stout UTSA defense this week, though.

The Owls’ offense ranks 99th in Success Rate and averages nearly two turnovers per game.

The way Richardson and this team have had success is through big plays (51st in Explosiveness), as well as winning the field position battle thanks to special teams and defense. They rank 13th in average starting field position.

Defensively, this FAU team hasn’t been particularly great, but defense is the strength of this team. The Owls have forced nearly two turnovers per game to keep pace with their own offensive turnovers. That has helped them keep games close and give their offense better field position.

They allow 23 points per game, so UTSA should have some success, especially in the passing game. FAU ranks 90th in Passing Success Rate.

Similar to the offense, this defense has been very good at slowing drives due to its starting field position ranking of 26th.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how UTSA and Florida Atlantic match up statistically:

UTSA Offense vs. Florida Atlantic Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 109 84
Line Yards 99 95
Pass Success 46 66
Havoc 63 118
Finishing Drives 62 55
Quality Drives 71 30
Florida Atlantic Offense vs. UTSA Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 107 35
Line Yards 56 21
Pass Success 75 69
Havoc 110 87
Finishing Drives 100 94
Quality Drives 90 106
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 118 16
PFF Coverage 132 66
Special Teams SP+ 88 95
Middle 8 56 126
Seconds per Play 23.9 (17) 24.8 (28)
Rush Rate 52.0% (76) 45.1% (116)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

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I think this matchup favors the Roadrunners on the road, as their defense should be able to slow the FAU offense and force some turnovers against a somewhat turnover-happy Owls team.

Harris and the Roadrunners’ offense holds the advantage in the passing game, and I expect them to exploit it.

Give me UTSA -2.5.

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Eric Caselton

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