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Army vs LSU Prediction & Picks: Bet Another Tigers Over

Army vs LSU Odds

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Let’s head down to Baton Rouge, Louisiana, where the LSU Tigers will host the Army Black Knights.

LSU is coming off back-to-back wins, while Army was blanked at home last week against Troy.

There’s a clear side to take in this matchup, so let’s make an Army vs. LSU betting pick and prediction.

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Check out our NCAAF Betting Hub for more college football previews, predictions, news and analysis.

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It’s been a tough season for the Black Knights, as head coach Jeff Monken’s team continues to transition out of the triple option.

This offense has been tough to watch at times, as Army is still trying to establish an offensive identity.

The Black Knights are still running the ball at a 75% clip, but eventually, the plan is for the triple-option to become extinct in this program.

I don’t really see too many bright spots on this offense, except for the ability to prevent Havoc and get a push on the offensive line. This should help against an atrocious LSU defense, and many explosive runs could be in the forecast.

Monken could be extra aggressive, considering his team enters as 32.5-point underdogs. A lot of fourth and shorts could determine whether Army allows the Tigers to start with the ball in prime field position.

Defensively, Army’s strength remains in the secondary. Normally, I’d be encouraged against an elite passing attack, but LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels has proven capable of shredding any opponent he faces.

Army creates almost no Havoc and its defensive front has been getting pushed around all season (108th in Line Yards).

I could see this defense becoming fatigued early, as I don’t see any way it can slow down LSU’s offense.

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Daniels has arguably been the best player in college football this season, aside from Michael Penix Jr.

LSU’s offense is nothing without him, and he’s the main reason it’s had so much success.

I’m sure head coach Brian Kelly will continue to lose sleep over the tough losses against Ole Miss and Florida State, as the Tigers are presumably out of the College Football Playoff picture.

LSU is inside the top 10 in the majority of offensive metrics and is notably second in the nation in Passing Success Rate. There aren’t many flaws on the offensive side of the ball, and despite Army having a stringy secondary, I have no doubts that the Tigers will put up a ton of points.

Defensively, LSU is full of problems.

Week after week, the Tigers continue to get manhandled, which could set up some explosive plays for Army’s offense.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Army and LSU match up statistically:

Army Offense vs LSU Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 89 106
Line Yards 41 85
Pass Success 67 107
Havoc 53 70
Finishing Drives 79 126
Quality Drives 67 122
LSU Offense vs Army Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 2 85
Line Yards 5 108
Pass Success 8 27
Havoc 4 120
Finishing Drives 7 12
Quality Drives 2 62
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 69 46
PFF Coverage 45 94
Special Teams SP+ 94 90
Middle 8 47 18
Seconds per Play 30.4 (125) 26.8 (66)
Rush Rate 74.8% (3) 53.8% (58)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

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There’s no way I can back Army in this spot, given the fact that LSU is a complete juggernaut on offense.

If I had more faith in Army’s offense to sustain long drives, I would think differently. However, this is an over play all the way.

LSU could score 50 by itself, and I don’t have any reason to believe the Tigers will be contained in this matchup. LSU’s defense could also easily give up multiple explosive runs, so I think Army could put up some points as well.

I really wish I could back the Black Knights here, but I trust the over way more.

Let’s hope the Tigers don’t come out flat and put on an offensive show for their home fans.

[quickslip picktext=”Pick: Over 58.5 (Play to 61)” linktext=”Bet the Over Instantly at FanDuel With QuickSlip!” link=”https://switchboard.actionnetwork.com/v1/deeplink?marketId=42.400448511&selectionId=7017916&context=qs-articles” linkfollow=”false” bookthumbnaillogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/392973_FanDuel.png”][/quickslip]

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John Feltman

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