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Georgia State vs. Louisiana Odds, Picks | NCAAF Betting Preview

Georgia State vs. Louisiana Odds

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We head down to Lafayette, Louisiana, where the Georgia State Panthers will face the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns in what should be a fun Sun Belt matchup.

Georgia State cruised to a nice home victory last week against Marshall, while the Ragin’ Cajuns are coming off a bye. This is a pretty fascinating game to handicap because we can take a few different betting approaches.

The market has already taken shape on a couple of sides in this game, so let’s waste no further time and break down this matchup.

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The Panthers’ offense was able to utilize its explosive rushing attack against Marshall last week. The Panthers are now 5-1 on the year and have another tasty matchup on the offensive side of the ball.

The Panthers should be able to exploit ULL’s rush defense, which ranks 124th in Rushing Success Rate. If the run game isn’t clicking, the Panthers are 45th in Passing Success Rate and ULL’s secondary isn’t much better.

Quarterback Darren Grainger should have plenty of opportunities to use his legs, and I also expect running back Marcus Carroll to continue to dominate. There’s a lot to like for the Panthers on the offensive side of the ball.

As for the defense, I’m a bit concerned about the secondary.

ULL’s offense has solid underlying metrics and Georgia State’s secondary could easily get exploited. As a result, it’ll be crucial for this defensive front to step up and cause some Havoc.

I’m a tad worried about the Panthers’ ability to contain ULL’s passing attack, so this may be a game they may need to win in a shootout.

This has the makings of a nice game to live bet.

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The Ragin Cajuns’ overall body of work isn’t impressive, but we do need to give some flowers to the offense. Head coach Michael Desormeaux has established the identity of this football team, and it’s obvious the offense leads the way.

Quarterback Zeon Chriss has utilized his dual-threat skills effectively and has racked up over 1,100 total yards rushing and passing. He’s a huge reason why ULL’s offense is top 30 in both Rushing and Passing Success Rates.

This offense isn’t the best at preventing Havoc, but against a Panthers defense that struggles to create any, I don’t have any concerns. ULL should be able to take advantage of the Panthers’ bottom-30 ranking in both PFF tackling and coverage.

Defensively, this is one of the worst teams in the nation in Rushing Success Rate (124th). This is looking like a disastrous matchup due to the Panthers’ explosive rushing attack.

I don’t have much faith in the Ragin’ Cajuns to stop the run, so they will need to hope they force the Panthers into non-standard down situations.

I would suggest ULL could contain the Panthers by creating turnovers, but ULL is 101st in Havoc, so that seems like it might be asking too much from this defense.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Georgia State and Louisiana match up statistically:

Georgia State Offense vs. Louisiana Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 108 124
Line Yards 88 117
Pass Success 45 43
Havoc 60 101
Finishing Drives 50 117
Quality Drives 36 97
Louisiana Offense vs. Georgia State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 14 22
Line Yards 17 19
Pass Success 30 101
Havoc 85 93
Finishing Drives 54 53
Quality Drives 64 57
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 109 19
PFF Coverage 112 28
Special Teams SP+ 44 15
Middle 8 123 13
Seconds per Play 25.5 (39) 26.8 (65)
Rush Rate 58.9% (21) 57.4% (31)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Georgia State vs. Louisiana” subtext=”Betting Pick & Prediction” center=”false” logo1url=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/252389_action-logo-check.png”][/subheader]

ULL opening as a short favorite screams to me that it’ll somehow win this game.

However, I’m terrified of backing the Ragin’ Cajuns due to their inability to contain the run against the rush-heavy Panthers.

Instead, I feel much more comfortable taking the over.

I realize the Panthers’ defense can be stout at times, but I love what the Cajuns can do on the offensive side of the ball.

This is a great spot for both offenses to have some success, and even if the Panthers are a bit sleepy, I think they’ll awaken by the 2nd quarter. Let’s cash this over in what should be an action-packed Sun Belt matchup.

[quickslip picktext=”Pick: Over 62.5 (Play to 64.5)” linktext=”Bet the Over Instantly at FanDuel With QuickSlip!” link=”https://switchboard.actionnetwork.com/v1/deeplink?marketId=42.400459569&selectionId=7017916&context=qs-articles” linkfollow=”false” bookthumbnaillogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/392973_FanDuel.png”][/quickslip]

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