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Nevada vs San Diego State Prediction & Picks: Don’t Expect Much Offense

Nevada vs San Diego State Odds

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The Mountain West Conference has not exactly been the class of the country, and Nevada is a big reason why, as it’s 0-6 entering this matchup.

However, this is a matchup that exemplifies the beauty of betting, because even the worst teams in the country can help you profit.

While the Wolf Pack have not given us much to talk about, the Aztecs are a team that needs to keep the ball rolling in a big way. They finally got off the schneid last week as they defeated Hawaii, which ended a four-game losing streak.

So, what’s the best way to bet this Mountain West matchup? Let’s dive in to find out.

Check out our NCAAF Betting Hub for more college football previews, predictions, news, and analysis.

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[subheader sizedown=”false” center=”false” text=”Nevada Wolf Pack” subtext=”” logo1url=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/258546_NevadaWP.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/odds/nevada-wolf-pack” link1follow=”false”][/subheader]

This Nevada offense is impressively bad; it’s 111th in Rushing Success Rate and 120th in Passing Success Rate. In turn, the Wolf Pack are averaging just 19.6 points per game.

They may have a path to offensive success in this matchup, though. The Wolf Pack run a very balanced offense, but it may benefit them if they keep the ball on the ground against the Aztecs.

San Diego State is 133rd in Rushing Success Rate Allowed, which stems from poor work up front, as it’s 132nd in Defensive Line Yards. It will be interesting to see how the Wolf Pack approach the run game, as quarterback Brendon Lewis is their leading rusher and their lead back has not been all that efficient.

Regardless, the more run-heavy scheme will benefit the Wolf Pack, as they’ll be able to move the chains and keep the Aztecs off the field.

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Speaking of the Aztecs, they are built to embrace the grind this game will be, as they’ve run the ball at the 39th-highest rate in the country. San Diego State’s rushing attack will be effective, and it will also drain the clock.

The Aztecs have a massive edge in trenches and should get a consistent push, despite not being all that efficient on the ground this season.

Quarterback Jalen Mayden will be a dynamic weapon in this offense, as he can not only shred the Wolf Pack with his legs but should find plenty of openings through the air.

Nevada is 132nd in Passing Success Rate Allowed and 129th in PFF’s coverage grading.

To cap things off, the Wolf Pack are 128th in tackling, which will make all aspects of the San Diego State offense better.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Nevada and San Diego State match up statistically:

Nevada Offense vs. San Diego State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 111 133
Line Yards 119 132
Pass Success 120 109
Havoc 133 90
Finishing Drives 130 78
Quality Drives 117 117
San Diego State Offense vs. Nevada Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 40 108
Line Yards 65 105
Pass Success 61 132
Havoc 92 124
Finishing Drives 99 84
Quality Drives 83 132
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 128 123
PFF Coverage 129 114
Special Teams SP+ 85 67
Middle 8 83 108
Seconds per Play 27.0 (69) 30.3 (124)
Rush Rate 51.5% (65) 57.6% (34)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus, and SportSource Analytics.

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Nevada vs San Diego State” subtext=”Betting Pick & Prediction” center=”false” logo1url=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/252389_action-logo-check.png”][/subheader]

This is not the game that you are going to want to sweat, as watching these two offenses could be borderline painful.

However, we can capitalize on that by taking the under in this matchup.

The total is currently hovering around the key number of 48, which is a tremendous number given what these two offenses have shown us.

Combined, these two teams average just 39 points per game.

Given the schemes, the tempo and the inefficiency of the ground game, this game should stay under the total.

[quickslip picktext=”Pick: Under 48″ linktext=”Bet the Under Instantly at FanDuel With QuickSlip!” link=”https://switchboard.actionnetwork.com/v1/deeplink?marketId=42.400447593&selectionId=7017917&context=qs-articles” linkfollow=”false” bookthumbnaillogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/392973_FanDuel.png”][/quickslip]

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Doug Ziefel

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