Action Network

college football-odds-predictions-picks-baylor bears vs cincinnati bearcats-saturday oct 21

Baylor vs Cincinnati Odds, Picks: Target This Big 12 Total

Baylor vs Cincinnati Odds

[gamematchup league=”ncaaf” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/bay.png” awayname=”Baylor” awayslug=”baylor-bears” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/cind.png” homename=”Cincinnati” homeslug=”cincinnati-bearcats” date=”Saturday, Oct. 21″ time=”12 p.m. ET” network=”ESPN+” col1text=”Spread” col2text=”Total” col3text=”Moneyline” col1awaytext=”+3″ col1awayline=”-110″ col1hometext=”-3″ col1homeline=”-110″ col2awaytext=”49.5″ col2hometext=”49.5″ col2awayline=”-115o / -105u” col2homeline=”-115o / -105u” col3awaytext=”+130″ col3hometext=”-155″ col3awayline=”” col3homeLine=”” bookname=”BetMGM” bookthumbnaillogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/902516_MGM2.png” bookreviewslug=”betmgm”][/gamematchup]

The Cincinnati Bearcats have had a rough go of it thus far in their inaugural season in the Big 12. We successfully faded them last week against Iowa State, which marked their fourth consecutive loss.

Surprisingly, they are favorites yet again this week as they play host to the Baylor Bears.

However, the Bears have not shown us much to be inspired about, as they enter this matchup 2-4 on the season.

Baylor enters this matchup off a bye, and that might have been exactly what they needed to revitalize their season.

So, which side should you be on for this Big 12 showdown? Let’s dive in to find out.

Check out our NCAAF Betting Hub for more college football previews, predictions, news, and analysis.

_InlineAdBlock

[subheader sizedown=”false” center=”false” text=”Baylor Bears” subtext=”” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/bay.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/odds/baylor-bears” link1follow=”false”][/subheader]

When you look at the Bears’ offensive production this season, it’s almost hard to believe this Baylor program is just a few years removed from a Big 12 Championship game appearance.

The Bears come in averaging just 20 points per game and rank 77th in yards per game.

However, they may have an opportunity to break out against the Bearcats here. Last week, I broke down how the passing game would be effective for the Iowa State Cyclones, and that proved to be the case, as Rocco Becht threw for 241 yards and two touchdowns.

Baylor has the more talented quarterback in Blake Shapen. Shapen missed some time with an early-season injury but has looked solid since returning at the end of September.

The key to Baylor’s success will be its offensive line. The Bears’ line has struggled mightily, but if it can give Shapen some time, he should have success against a Cincy secondary that ranks 112th in Passing Success Rate Allowed.

[subheader sizedown=”false” center=”false” text=”Cincinnati Bearcats” subtext=”” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/cind.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/odds/cincinnati-bearcats” link1follow=”false”][/subheader]

Last week, we saw the first real clunker from Emory Jones in a Cincinnati uniform. However, he faced his toughest matchup yet in Iowa State. He and the rest of the Bearcats’ offense will have a much easier time against this Baylor defense.

The Bears haven’t been able to stop much of anything thrown at them this season. Baylor is allowing 34.8 points per game and is 108th in yards allowed per game.

The edges are plentiful for Cincy in this matchup. It will be able to control the game with a big push up front, as it outranks Baylor 38 to 110 in Line Yards.

Meanwhile, the Bears are 102nd in Passing Success Rate and 121st in PFF’s coverage grading.

So, look for Jones to bounce back and lead this offense up and down the field on multiple occasions.

[appcard imageurl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/509930_NCAAFArticleCard.png” cta=”The must-have app for college football bettors” firstupsell=”The best NCAAF betting scoreboard” secondupsell=”Free picks from proven pros” thirdupsell=”Live win probabilities for your bets” buttontext=”DOWNLOAD NOW” buttonurl=”https://action.onelink.me/qhpb/4fb1273b”][/appcard]

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Baylor vs Cincinnati” subtext=”Matchup Analysis” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/bay.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/odds/baylor-bears” link1follow=”false” logo2url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/cind.png” link2=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/odds/cincinnati-bearcats” link2follow=”false”][/subheader]

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Baylor and Cincinnati match up statistically:

Baylor Offense vs. Cincinnati Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 118 15
Line Yards 98 17
Pass Success 119 112
Havoc 97 13
Finishing Drives 128 73
Quality Drives 62 76
Cincinnati Offense vs. Baylor Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 57 102
Line Yards 38 110
Pass Success 59 102
Havoc 39 82
Finishing Drives 65 102
Quality Drives 55 98
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 125 46
PFF Coverage 121 133
Special Teams SP+ 106 65
Middle 8 89 81
Seconds per Play 26.5 (59) 25.9 (53)
Rush Rate 48.7% (106) 57.0% (30)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus, and SportSource Analytics.

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Baylor vs Cincinnati” subtext=”Betting Pick & Prediction” center=”false” logo1url=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/252389_action-logo-check.png”][/subheader]

While this is a number that is begging you to fade the Bearcats again, there’s an even stronger angle.

Baylor is bound to bounce back offensively off of the bye, but it will need Shapen to be consistent, as there may not be much slowing down the Bearcats’ offense.

Take the over and avoid the sweat of backing either side and their struggling secondaries.

[quickslip picktext=”Pick: Over 49.5 (Play to 50.5)” linktext=”Bet the Over at FanDuel With QuickSlip” link=”https://switchboard.actionnetwork.com/v1/deeplink?marketId=42.400350021&selectionId=7017916&context=qs-articles” linkfollow=”false” bookthumbnaillogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/392973_FanDuel.png”][/quickslip]

What is QuickSlip?

QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.

_InlineAdBlock=3

Posted

in

by

Doug Ziefel

Tags:

, , , ,