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Western Michigan vs Ohio Odds, Prediction: A 1H Bet to Make

Western Michigan vs Ohio Odds

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We have more MACtion to bet, as the Western Michigan Broncos (2-5) visit the Ohio Bobcats (5-2) in Week 8.

These two teams have been on different wavelengths through the season’s first seven weeks, with Western Michigan looking like a MAC bottom-feeder and Ohio fighting towards the top of the MAC East.

On paper, this looks like a blowout.

But could there be some value on the underdog Broncos?

Let’s dive into our Western Michigan vs Ohio Pick & Prediction. 

Check out our NCAAF Betting Hub for more college football previews, predictions, news and analysis.

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Western Michigan is in the midst of a season to forget.

The Broncos’ lone conference victory came against Ball State in Week 5. But there’s a problem: Ball State is undoubtedly the only MAC team worse than Western Michigan.

What’s odd about the Broncos is their offense is somewhat decent. They’ve averaged 27 points per game over the past three weeks against relatively solid teams like Mississippi State and Miami (OH).

The Broncos rank 33rd in Havoc prevented, an extraordinary number considering their results. Despite trailing in most games early, quarterback Hayden Wolff has flashed potential.

There are nice things to say about Western Michigan’s offense. The same can not be said about Western Michigan’s defense.

The Broncos are 45th in Havoc generated but sub-100th in almost every other significant statistic we use to determine defensive strength.

The offense is the key to this handicap. Ohio’s defense is among the nation’s best, but if the Broncos could string together just a few quality drives, they could stay in the fight.

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Ohio is excellent.

Not just on the mid-major curve.

The Bobcats are just flat-out good.

The Bobcats’ defense is fifth in Havoc generated and 14th in Rush Success Rate Allowed. Frankly, Western Michigan might not be able to move the ball at all.

Western Michigan (along with every other team in the MAC) understands that you don’t run against Ohio. It won’t end well. Opponents rush at just a 42% clip against the Bobcats, among the nation’s lowest rates.

While Ohio’s offense is merely decent, it might not matter as much in this matchup. Ohio’s defense should set the tone. If that happens, Western Michigan’s offensive momentum could come to a screeching halt.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Western Michigan and Ohio match up statistically:

Western Michigan Offense vs. Ohio Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 96 14
Line Yards 52 22
Pass Success 89 42
Havoc 33 5
Finishing Drives 33 2
Quality Drives 116 9
Ohio Offense vs. Western Michigan Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 64 106
Line Yards 45 122
Pass Success 40 99
Havoc 55 45
Finishing Drives 89 127
Quality Drives 48 123
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 106 113
PFF Coverage 85 103
Special Teams SP+ 127 123
Middle 8 122 46
Seconds per Play 24.7 (26) 29.9 (118)
Rush Rate 56.0% (17) 54.5% (36)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

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Ohio is undoubtedly the superior team, but the Bobs are laying a huge number.

Western Michigan upsetting Ohio would be among the MAC’s biggest surprises this year.

Still, I believe this spread is a tad inflated. But I don’t think backing the Broncos across 60 minutes is the right approach.

I suspect Western Michigan can hang tough, at least for a bit.

Ohio’s defense will ice this game late, but I project a battle in the first half.

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Daniel Preciado

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