I’m very excited about the next two races.
The Next Gen car races very well at 1.5-mile tracks like Las Vegas and Homestead, especially when tire wear is a factor, which it will be at both of these circuits.
Tire wear also means that practice is a more important indicator when projecting speed for the race, so I’m diving right into yesterday’s on-track activity to sift through NASCAR odds for Las Vegas to pinpoint my favorite pick for Sunday’s South Point 400 (2:30 p.m. ET, NBC).
NASCAR Pick for Las Vegas
*NASCAR odds as of Sunday
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To be honest, I don’t get this line for today’s NASCAR race.
Now, that probably means you should immediately close this article, but I’m sorry, I just cannot help myself from taking Bubba Wallace at -115 to finish ahead of Joey Logano on Sunday afternoon.
As I mentioned earlier this week when also betting Wallace to score a top-1o finish today, the 23XI Racing driver has posted the fourth-best driver rating on 1.5-mile tracks, like Las Vegas, this year, while leading the fifth-most laps and running the sixth-most fast laps.
Logano, on the other hand, has just the 18th-best driver rating while ranking 24th in fastest laps run and 12th in laps led.
This alone does not suggest that Wallace vs. Logano should be listed a pick’em.
In addition, Wallace had the faster five-lap average in practice and will start two positions ahead of Logano.
Again, nothing here says to me that this should be a coin-flip matchup.
For the many reasons above, I’m taking Wallace’s Toyota to finish ahead of Logano’s Ford today at Las Vegas
The bet: Wallace -115 over Logano (BetMGM)
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