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College Football Odds & Picks for Kansas State vs Oklahoma State

Kansas State vs Oklahoma State Odds

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Kansas State and Oklahoma State face off Friday night in what should be a fun Big 12 matchup.

These teams each prefer to play at a fast pace and are capable of putting up numbers on the offensive side of the ball. However, there’s one team I’m far more confident will put points on the board this week.

Let’s dive into my preview and Kansas State vs. Oklahoma State best bet.

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Kansas State is once again looking to win the Big 12 and is off to a fast 3-1 start. The Wildcats were driven largely by their defense last season, but the offense is taking the reins this time around.

KSU is 26th ranks Offensive Success Rate and fourth in Finishing Drives. The Wildcats have scored 40-plus points in all three of their wins and also scored 27 on the road against Missouri.

Those outputs become even more impressive when you consider that the Wildcats accomplished them against a tough slate of opposing defenses. All of their games against FBS opponents were against teams whose defenses rank in the top 50 of SP+.

Meanwhile, Oklahoma State’s defense ranks 56th.

Kansas State has a fairly balanced offensive attack, ranking 28th in Rushing Success Rate and 35th in Passing Success Rate.

Defensively, Kansas State may have taken a slight step back this year. It ranks 24th in Success Rate but is 122nd in Explosiveness. At the end of 2022, Kansas State was rated as the 24th-best defense by SP+; it’s now 36th.

Still, Kansas State’s run defense is stout. The Wildcats rank first in Rushing Success Rate Allowed and fifth in Rushing PPA Allowed.

However, the passing defense has seen its struggles. Kansas State is just 73rd in Passing Success Rate Allowed and 80th in Passing PPA Allowed.

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Fresh off of a bye week, it seems like Mike Gundy has finally decided on a starting quarterback. Alan Bowman, a transfer from both Texas Tech and Michigan, will start for the Cowboys.

After getting off to a choppy start and playing musical chairs with three quarterbacks, Oklahoma State is hoping deciding on one will help its offense move forward.

The way to attack the Wildcats is through the air, so it will be up to Bowman to lead the attack. Oklahoma State passes at the ninth-highest rate in FBS but has just the 115th-best Passing Success Rate.

Oklahoma State’s defense has been ravished by explosive plays. Down-to-down, the Cowboys don’t look so bad and rank 36th in Success Rate, however, they’re 126th in Explosiveness and 121st in Finishing Drives.

Passing defense is another weakness for Oklahoma State. The Cowboys are 60th in Passing Success Rate Allowed and 124th in Passing PPA Allowed.

Oklahoma State is 115th in PFF coverage grade and 121st in PFF tackling grade, so there should be ample opportunities for Kansas State to score.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Kansas State and Oklahoma State match up statistically:

Kansas State Offense vs. Oklahoma State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 29 27
Line Yards 49 59
Pass Success 35 123
Havoc 4 103
Finishing Drives 5 120
Quality Drives 44 60
Oklahoma State Offense vs. Kansas State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 41 1
Line Yards 65 1
Pass Success 116 80
Havoc 18 10
Finishing Drives 47 41
Quality Drives 96 44
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 50 131
PFF Coverage 94 104
Special Teams SP+ 96 27
Middle 8 102 88
Seconds per Play 25.7 (46) 24.0 (17)
Rush Rate 51.5% (70) 41.4% (125)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Kansas State vs Oklahoma State” subtext=”Betting Pick & Prediction” center=”false” logo1url=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/252389_action-logo-check.png”][/subheader]

I believe Kansas State’s offense will put plenty of points on the board. The Wildcats offense has been one of the top units in the country, and I think that’ll continue here.

On the Oklahoma State side, I don’t know what to expect. With Kansas State’s strong rushing defense, the Cowboys will have to look through the air if they hope to keep up.

Oklahoma State has run its offense at the 24th-fastest pace in the country, while Kansas State ranks 53rd. If I was more certain about Oklahoma State’s offense, I would take the over in this game. However, I’m much more confident in the Wildcats being able to hold up their end of the bargain, so I’m looking to Kansas State’s team total instead.

The Wildcats should be pushing 40 once again, so I’d take this over up to 35 points.

Pick: Kansas State Team Total Over 33.5 (Play to 35)

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Cody Goggin

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