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NCAAF Odds, Picks for Bowling Green vs. Georgia Tech

Bowling Green vs. Georgia Tech Odds

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Buried in this week’s college football slate is an intriguing nonconference matchup between Bowling Green and Georgia Tech.

The Bowling Green Falcons have started the season 1-3 with their only win coming in Week 2 over Eastern Illinois. Much of the Falcons’ failures can be attributed to the inability of quarterback Connor Bazelak and this offense to create a balanced attack.

On the other side, Georgia Tech bounced back after two opening losses to Louisville and Ole Miss by defeating Wake Forest, 30-16.

The Yellow Jackets pulled off a comfortable win despite outgaining Wake Forest by just six total yards. However, they won the turnover battle, 5-1.

Can Georgia Tech keep the momentum going? Let’s take a look at the odds and make a pick for the Bowling Green Falcons vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets on Saturday, Sept. 30.

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On paper, this Bowling Green team has struggled to start the year. Offensively, the Falcons rank 115th nationally in Success Rate and 122nd in Points per Opportunity, averaging just 13 points per game through four weeks.

Although these numbers are concerning, I believe Bowling Green has been the victim of a tough opening schedule. The Falcons have faced three very competent offenses in Liberty, Michigan and Ohio.

Even against these talented units, Bowling Green ranks inside the top 65 in Points per Opportunity and explosives allowed on the defensive end.

This ability to limit explosive plays will be critical against a Georgia Tech offense that has leaned on its ability to create explosives. The Yellow Jackets rank second nationally in offensive explosiveness despite sitting just 73rd nationally in overall Offensive Success Rate.

On the other side of the ball, look for Bowling Green’s offense to use the rushing attack to limit the number of possessions in this contest.

The Falcons come in at 27th nationally in rushing explosiveness, which will be critical in creating scoring chances against a Georgia Tech defense that ranks 88th in rushing explosiveness allowed and 92nd in Defensive Rushing Success Rate.

This, combined with an offense that’s 17th nationally in seconds per play, gives me enough reason to think Bowling Green can keep the score looking respectable.

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There’s no denying that this is a crucial game for Georgia Tech if it wishes to reach bowl eligibility.

No matter how important this matchup is, the Yellow Jackets will have to be more effective on the defensive end if they wish to win this one comfortably.

Overall, Georgia Tech has had success this season by creating explosive plays on offense, which has made up for an inability to find consistent defensive production.

Defensively, the Yellow Jackets rank 89th in Success Rate and have allowed teams to stay ahead of the chains by giving up an average of 250 rushing yards per game. That will play a big role against a Bowling Green offense that ranks 27th nationally in rushing explosiveness.

Although Georgia Tech may not be in fear of dropping this crucial game at home, I still believe there are enough holes in this defensive front for Bowling Green to attack.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Bowling Green and Georgia Tech match up statistically:

Bowling Green Offense vs. Georgia Tech Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 99 85
Line Yards 102 64
Pass Success 101 40
Havoc 131 78
Finishing Drives 124 66
Quality Drives 129 111
Georgia Tech Offense vs. Bowling Green Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 96 90
Line Yards 23 121
Pass Success 47 123
Havoc 40 81
Finishing Drives 53 61
Quality Drives 22 94
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 23 65
PFF Coverage 100 35
Special Teams SP+ 115 100
Middle 8 58 11
Seconds per Play 30.2 (117) 26.5 (63)
Rush Rate 51.9% (82) 52.6% (65)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

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Backing this Bowling Green team will be tough considering the form of Bazelak and this Falcons offense. However, I believe the market is too low on BGSU after it faced three balanced teams in Liberty, Michigan and Ohio.

Offensively, look for Bowling Green to find enough success on the ground to eat up clock and limit the number of possessions for Georgia Tech’s offense.

Add in the Falcons’ ability to limit the explosive plays that Georgia Tech has thrived on to start the season, and I’ll back Bowlin Green in a game our Action Analytics team projects at just under two touchdowns.

[quickslip picktext=”Pick: Bowling Green +22.5 (Play to 21.5) ” linktext=”Bet BGSU Instantly at FanDuel With QuickSlip!” link=”https://switchboard.actionnetwork.com/v1/deeplink?marketId=42.397725551&selectionId=7017916&context=qs-articles” linkfollow=”false” bookthumbnaillogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/392973_FanDuel.png”][/quickslip]

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Cooper Van Tatenhove

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