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iowa state cyclones vs oklahoma sooners-odds-picks-predictions-ncaaf betting preview-saturday sept 30

Iowa State vs. Oklahoma | Odds, Picks & College Football Betting

Iowa State vs. Oklahoma Odds

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The Oklahoma Sooners welcome the Iowa State Cyclones to Norman, Oklahoma for a Big 12 matchup in Week 5.

Oklahoma remains undefeated in the second year under head coach Brent Venables. The Sooners are led by fifth-year quarterback Dillon Gabriel, who’s in his second season in Norman after transferring from UCF in 2022.

Matt Campbell leads Iowa State in his eighth season as head coach, and the Cyclones currently sit at 2-2 on the year.

Both Iowa State and Oklahoma are 1-0 in Big 12 play, but which team will move to 2-0 with a win on Saturday?

Find a betting preview, pick and prediction for Iowa State vs. Oklahoma below.

Check out our NCAAF Betting Hub for more college football previews, predictions, news and analysis.

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The Cyclones have had an up-and-down season thus far. They’ve beaten Oklahoma State and Northern Iowa — two teams they were favored to beat — and lost to their in-state rivals — the Iowa Hawkeyes.

Additionally, the Cyclones were embarrassed in a tough 10-7 road loss to the Ohio Bobcats.

Iowa State will look to build on these first four games and hand Oklahoma its first loss of the season.

The Cyclones are led by redshirt freshman quarterback Rocco Becht, who will be making his fifth career start this week. Passing has been the strength of this Iowa State offense, and Becht looked strong last week against Oklahoma State, as he threw for 348 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions.

However, in his first road start of his career at Ohio, he threw for 233 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions.

Last week’s strong showing should help Becht with his confidence, but he might struggle again in a much tougher road environment at Memorial Stadium.

The Iowa State run game will likely do him no favors, as the Cyclones rank a horrific 132nd in Rush Success Rate, second-worst among all 133 FBS teams.

Iowa State brings in a top-25 defense, which will be the toughest unit Oklahoma has seen so far this season. This Cyclones defense ranks 20th in Passing Success Rate Allowed and ranks 54th in limiting Explosive Plays.

The front seven has also been strong against the run, allowing only 115 yards per game on the ground.

Most importantly, the Cyclones are 22nd in Finishing Drives, and they may cause early problems for the Sooners’ offense.

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The Sooners have been rolling this season, as they’re 4-0 following a road win against the Cincinnati Bearcats in Week 4.

This is a lookahead spot for Oklahoma before clashing with rival Texas next week in Dallas at the Cotton Bowl.

Gabriel is the engine of this Sooners offense, which has the best Passing Success Rate in the country. With 1,227 passing yards and 12 passing touchdowns through four weeks, Gabriel is reminiscent of Sooner quarterbacks under former coach Lincoln Riley.

The Oklahoma running game has been pretty average this season, and this can be attributed to mediocre offensive line play, which needs to improve. The Sooners will need the run game to get going early against an Iowa State defense that thrives against the pass.

After a disappointing 6-7 campaign in 2022, Oklahoma is looking to improve its defense in the second season under the defensive-minded Venables. Along with Iowa State, Oklahoma’s defense ranks in the top 25 this year, coming in at 20th.

However, Oklahoma’s run defense is more stout than the passing defense.

This isn’t ideal against an Iowa State offense that’s better throwing the ball than running the ball. But with the talent on this defense and Venables at the helm, the Sooners should get some stops and force a few turnovers against a young quarterback and a struggling Cyclones offense.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Iowa State and Oklahoma match up statistically:

Iowa State Offense vs. Oklahoma Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 132 20
Line Yards 131 2
Pass Success 75 26
Havoc 36 21
Finishing Drives 72 6
Quality Drives 87 8
Oklahoma Offense vs. Iowa State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 61 41
Line Yards 79 41
Pass Success 1 15
Havoc 28 78
Finishing Drives 5 22
Quality Drives 13 31
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 92 8
PFF Coverage 15 29
Special Teams SP+ 62 17
Middle 8 34 56
Seconds per Play 29.6 (110) 24.6 (25)
Rush Rate 48.1% (87) 54.3% (51)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

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While in years past this game has typically been very competitive, this matchup could be a different story because the Iowa State offense is just not good enough to keep pace with Oklahoma’s explosive passing offense.

The Iowa State defense will allow the Cyclones to hang around early, but as the defensive snap counts add up, Gabriel should start to pick Iowa State apart in a comfortable win.

Bet Oklahoma -19.5 on the spread and play the Sooners down to -21.

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Eric Caselton

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