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west virginia vs tcu-odds-picks-predictions-ncaaf-betting preview-saturday sept 30

West Virginia vs TCU Odds & Picks: Back Mountaineers’ Defense

West Virginia vs TCU Odds

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In a meeting between two Big 12 foes, TCU hosts West Virginia at Amon G. Carter Stadium on Saturday night looking to continue a solid start to the season.

The Horned Frogs have bounced back from the opening defeat to Colorado with convincing wins over Nicholls, Houston and rival SMU.

Meanwhile, the Mountaineers also picked up a loss in Week 1, but they have rattled off three-straight victories to own a 3-1 record.

This should be a great battle under the lights in Texas, and I think it will be closer than the odds suggest.

So, where does the betting value lie? Let’s dive into the West Virginia vs. TCU odds and find a pick in this NCAAF betting preview for Saturday, Sept. 30.

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After posting back-to-back losing seasons, West Virginia head coach Neal Brown was on the hot seat coming into the year. However, he has silenced the doubters with a solid start.

The first big win came in the Backyard Brawl against Pittsburgh. West Virginia then followed that up with a solid victory over Texas Tech.

In those contests, the stout defense has carried the Mountaineers, holding both Power 5 opponents to a combined 20 points.

The advanced metrics also back up the defensive efforts. WVU ranks inside the top 30 in multiple categories, including Defensive Passing Success Rate (20th), Havoc (24th) and Defensive Line Yards (28th).

Brown’s team will have to defend the pass well again if West Virginia wants to hold off TCU for a fourth straight win.

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In the offseason, one of the biggest questions was how the TCU offense would look after the switch at offensive coordinator from Garrett Riley to Kendal Briles.

Well, life under Briles is off to a solid start.

It’s been the impressive performances on the ground that have caught most of the headlines. The Horned Frogs sit in the top 25 in Offensive Line Yards (15th), Rush Success (17th) and Quality Drives (22nd).

Running back Emani Bailey has spearheaded the rushing attack, averaging six yards per carry for 483 rushing yards. Coming into this week, he leads the Big 12 in yards on the ground and has topped 100 yards in three of his four contests.

This will be the toughest defense that TCU has lined up against this season, but you know that veteran head coach Sonny Dykes is always confident in his offense.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how West Virginia and TCU match up statistically:

West Virginia Offense vs. TCU Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 73 58
Line Yards 54 79
Pass Success 89 81
Havoc 23 74
Finishing Drives 79 30
Quality Drives 79 47
TCU Offense vs. West Virginia Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 17 45
Line Yards 15 28
Pass Success 28 20
Havoc 33 24
Finishing Drives 74 56
Quality Drives 22 49
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 59 104
PFF Coverage 122 85
Special Teams SP+ 14 46
Middle 8 29 39
Seconds per Play 28.7 (93) 21.8 (3)
Rush Rate 66.4% (5) 53.8% (64)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”West Virginia vs TCU” subtext=”Betting Pick & Prediction” center=”false” logo1url=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/252389_action-logo-check.png”][/subheader]

If you like to follow the betting odds throughout the week, the opening lines at FanDuel and DraftKings both started under double digits. However, bettors hammered those numbers to push it to where it now sits at 14 points.

At this point, I really feel that the numbers have gone just a bit too far. So, my best bet is to back West Virginia at +14, which I would play to +10.5.

The theme for the Mountaineers has been their defense keeping them in games, and they should be able to do enough to keep this under two scores.

After all, this is a WVU defensive unit that has held Pittsburgh and Texas Tech to a combined average of less than four yards per carry.

The Mountaineers also have a significant advantage in PFF tackle grading, ranking 59th compared to TCU at 104th. While it’s a little concerning that WVU ranks 122nd in PFF’s coverage rankings, I feel it’s more important to stop the run first in this game.

One injury note to pay attention to as we get closer to kickoff is the status of West Virginia starting quarterback Garrett Greene, who missed the last game. He was available in an emergency role for the win over the Red Raiders, which makes me feel like he has a great shot of playing here.

If he’s good to go, this number may move. But I still like the Mountaineers to keep it close even if he doesn’t suit up.

[quickslip picktext=”Pick: West Virginia +14 (Play to +10.5)” linktext=”Bet WVU Instantly at FanDuel With QuickSlip!” link=”https://switchboard.actionnetwork.com/v1/deeplink?marketId=42.397577115&selectionId=7017916&context=qs-articles” linkfollow=”false” bookthumbnaillogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/392973_FanDuel.png”][/quickslip]

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Brett Pund

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