[gamematchup league=”ncaaf” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/msud.png” awayname=”Michigan St” awayslug=”michigan-state-spartans” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/iowd.png” homename=”Iowa” homeslug=”iowa-hawkeyes” date=”Saturday, Sep 30″ time=”7:30pm ET” network=”NBC” col1text=”Spread” col2text=”Total” col3text=”Moneyline” col1awaytext=”+12.5″ col1awayline=”-115″ col1hometext=”-12.5″ col1homeline=”-105″ col2awaytext=”36.5″ col2hometext=”36.5″ col2awayline=”-110o / -110u” col2homeline=”-110o / -110u” col3awaytext=”+350″ col3hometext=”-465″ col3awayline=”” col3homeline=”” bookname=”FanDuel” bookthumbnaillogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/392973_FanDuel.png” bookreviewslug=”fanduel”][/gamematchup]
The Michigan State vs. Iowa line for Saturday of college football Week 5 is a match for two profitable systems in Bet Labs.
And both the 60%- and 59%-winning models match on a Michigan State vs. Iowa pick and prediction against the spread Saturday.
Spartans vs. Hawkeyes in Week 5 boasts a matchup of struggling offenses.
Believe it or not, one of the two systems with an opinion on the Michigan State vs. Iowa line accounts for teams failing to score double digits in their previous game.
The other system, meanwhile, only submits a prediction against the spread in conference games.
Let’s dive into both profitable college football models, how they work and the betting pick to consider for Spartans vs. Hawkeyes.
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Michigan State vs. Iowa Pick, Prediction
Michigan State mustered nine points in a home loss to Maryland last week.
Iowa, meanwhile, couldn’t manage 80 total yards in a shutout loss at Penn State.
With that in mind, today’s Michigan State vs. Iowa line fits a college football model labeled Scoring Streak Fade.
Here, it’s a fade on the Iowa Hawkeyes and pick on Michigan State against the spread.
This 60%-winning system suggests betting against home favorites held to single digits the previous game.
[betlabsembed systemid=”1038361″ systemname=”Scoring Streak Fade (PRO)” leaguename=”ncaaf” filters=”%7B%22list%22%3A%5B%22the%20game%20is%20played%20during%20the%20Postseason%20or%20Regular%20season%22%2C%22the%20team’s%20%201%20Game%20Points%20streak%20is%20between%200%20and%209%22%2C%22the%20team%20is%20the%20Favorite%22%2C%22the%20team%20is%20the%20Home%20team%22%5D%7D” amountwon=”$8,399″ record=”304-202-7″ winpct=”60%”][/betlabsembed]
The theory states:
“A poor offensive game can be a sign of things to come. Teams favored at home after scoring fewer than 10 points in their previous game have struggled to cover the spread.”
Iowa’s 2.1 yards per play ranked last of any team nationally last Saturday.
Meanwhile, the second system in Week 5 backing the Spartans against the spread is Road Dog, Low Totals.
This 59%-winning model has value betting road underdogs of seven points or more, in conference play, with an over/under of 48 or lower.
[betlabsembed systemid=”1030845″ systemname=”Road Dogs Low Totals (PRO)” leaguename=”ncaaf” filters=”%7B%22list%22%3A%5B%22the%20game%20is%20played%20during%20the%20Regular%20season%22%2C%22the%20closing%20total%20is%20between%200%20and%2048%22%2C%22the%20team%20is%20the%20Visitor%20team%22%2C%22the%20spread%20is%20between%207%20and%20100%22%2C%22the%20game%20is%20a%20Conference%20game%22%5D%7D” amountwon=”$10,600″ record=”426-295-14″ winpct=”59%”][/betlabsembed]
With the line and total in range, it’s another solid recommendation on Michigan State to cover the spread at Iowa Saturday.
PRO Report Prediction: Michigan State ATS
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For more Action Network coverage of the 2023 NCAAF season, check out the latest college football odds, as well as the public betting percentage breakdowns for all games.