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Ohio vs Bowling Green Prediction, Odds, Picks: Target this MAC Total

Ohio vs Bowling Green Odds

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Ohio and Bowling Green are coming into this game on completely different sides of the momentum spectrum.

The Bobcats are 3-1 and coming off back-to-back upsets over FAU and Iowa State, while the Falcons are 1-2 and coming off a dismantling by a national title contender in Michigan.

The spread is set like it, with the Bobcats favored by 13 points. The question for Bowling Green is whether or not it can keep it close.

So, where does the betting value lie in the MAC matchup? Let’s look at the odds and find a pick for Ohio vs. Bowling Green in this NCAAF betting preview for Saturday, Sept. 23.

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Ohio is riding high coming into this game, but I think it may be set to get knocked down a peg.

When looking at the advanced metrics for this offense, it doesn’t seem like a team that should be favored by double digits over almost anyone. Why? The Bobcats struggle to generate big plays and to score touchdowns when they enter their opponents’ side of the field.

The Bobs rank 124th in Points per Opportunity and 129th in explosiveness. Their Success Rate is just average at 67th, as is their Havoc rating at 61.

They put themselves in holes early in drives by struggling on standard downs, ranking 122nd in PPAPplay. This thrusts them into long situations, as they rank 81st in standard downs rate.

Kurtis Rourke has been underwhelming this season after a stellar 2022 campaign saw him earn a PFF grade of 92. So far through four games this season, he owns a grade of just 75.4. They will need him to be better than average down the road.

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I think Bowling Green’s statistics are likely being repressed by playing two teams far ahead of it in talent so far. The Falcons were soundly beaten by Liberty and Michigan, but the good news for this offense is that it can’t get much worse.

They rank 97th in Success Rate, 105th in Points per Opportunity and 104th in Havoc Allowed. Not ideal.

The worst part is that Connor Bazelak has shown why he’s had to transfer from two schools already, posting a 54.2 PFF grade this season.

This offense has looked sluggish and anemic all year, and I don’t necessarily expect it to come out swinging against a pretty decent opponent in Ohio.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Ohio and Bowling Green match up statistically:

Ohio Offense vs. Bowling Green Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 81 111
Line Yards 60 120
Pass Success 58 108
Havoc 58 79
Finishing Drives 124 57
Quality Drives 80 100
Bowling Green Offense vs. Ohio Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 93 21
Line Yards 102 17
Pass Success 81 65
Havoc 126 15
Finishing Drives 107 7
Quality Drives 102 17
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 36 41
PFF Coverage 113 105
Special Teams SP+ 61 121
Middle 8 47 61
Seconds per Play 29.2 (99) 30.7 (122)
Rush Rate 55.4% (50) 55.2% (56)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Ohio vs Bowling Green” subtext=”Betting Pick & Prediction” center=”false” logo1url=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/252389_action-logo-check.png”][/subheader]

This is a matchup of two offenses that have had a slow start to the year.

I’m more than happy to bet on them continuing their run of sluggish form. Give me the under here in this matchup between MAC counterparts.

[quickslip picktext=”Pick: Under 44.5″ linktext=”Bet the Under Instantly With FanDuel QuickSlip” link=”https://switchboard.actionnetwork.com/v1/deeplink?marketId=42.396674765&selectionId=617088&context=qs-articles” linkfollow=”false” bookthumbnaillogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/392973_FanDuel.png”][/quickslip]

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