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byu cougars vs kansas jayhawks-odds-picks-predictions-ncaaf-betting preview-saturday september 23-lance leipold

College Football Odds, Picks for BYU vs. Kansas

BYU vs. Kansas Odds

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After an upset win over Arkansas, BYU heads back on the road, looking for another upset in Lawrence.

The Cougars escaped Fayetteville through fluky plays and field position. The Cougars are now 3-0 on the season but have hardly looked impressive, especially on offense. This is a historic occasion for them — their first-ever conference game as a member of the Big 12 — but the matchup isn’t great.

Kansas looked sluggish in Reno Saturday night but secured a 24-17 win to get to 3-0.

This is a look-ahead spot for Kansas, as it’s traveling to Austin next weekend for its biggest game of the season. However, a win here is crucial for Kansas to reach bowl-eligibility at the end of the season.

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BYU quarterback Kedon Slovis transferred to his third school after a lackluster season at Pitt. In 2022, he had a PFF passing grade of just 72.7 with 12 Big Time Throws compared to 16 Turnover Worthy Plays.

He definitely wasn’t the reason the Cougars beat Arkansas, as he went just 14-for-26 for 168 yards and had a PFF passing grade of 50.5.

The problem for Slovis, as you can see below, is that he was lousy under pressure at Pitt.

Image via PFF.

His numbers under pressure are important, as BYU is rehauling its offensive line. The two players with starting experience had to change positions to allow several transfers to play their natural positions.

Through three games, Slovis has been under pressure on 40% of his dropbacks, one of the highest marks in college football.

So, if Slovis can’t get it done, the BYU rushing attack must be effective. So far, that hasn’t been the case.

The Cougars didn’t have a good game on the ground against Arkansas despite breaking off a couple of runs, as they averaged only 2.5 yards per carry. Overall, BYU is 133rd in Rushing Success Rate and 126th in Offensive Line Yards, with the numbers coming against Sam Houston and Southern Utah.

The Cougars are pretty stout in their front seven, returning five of their top six tacklers from last year’s squad. However, they were one of the worst teams in the country against the run last season and just got torched for 177 yards and 4.5 yards per carry by Arkansas’ backup running back.

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Kansas played a lackluster game in Reno on Saturday, but this is still one of the most efficient offenses in the country. KU crossed Nevada’s 40-yard line seven times but only scored 24 points, so there isn’t much cause for concern.

The Jayhawks return a whopping 10 starters on offense, with the only starter lost being on the offensive line.

Jalon Daniels is highly comfortable in an Andy Kotelnicki offense that’s very difficult to prepare for, given the range of motion and formations he throws at opponents.

The weather won’t be conducive to a productive passing attack on Saturday, so Kansas will likely run the ball a lot. That’s no problem, given that its rushing attack is one of the toughest to stop in the country.

As a team, the Jayhawks are averaging over five yards per rush attempt, ranking 24th in Rushing Success Rate and 10th in Offensive Line Yards. Devin Neal has continued to build off of a 1,000-yard season in 2022, as he already has over 300 yards rushing, has forced 17 missed tackles and is averaging 3.8 yards per rush after contact.

There’s no way to sugarcoat it. Kansas’ defense has been bad for a couple of years now.

The Jayhawks rank 133rd nationally in Finishing Drives allowed through three games but are the top team at generating Havoc. BYU turned it over twice against Arkansas, and the reality is that the Cougars are an utterly inept offense that even Kansas could stop.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how BYU and Kansas match up statistically:

BYU Offense vs. Kansas Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 133 80
Line Yards 126 80
Pass Success 87 68
Havoc 70 1
Finishing Drives 22 133
Quality Drives 119 71
Kansas Offense vs. BYU Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 24 14
Line Yards 10 52
Pass Success 3 76
Havoc 34 59
Finishing Drives 46 51
Quality Drives 16 13
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 11 102
PFF Coverage 68 44
Special Teams SP+ 73 62
Middle 8 130 57
Seconds per Play 28.5 (91) 29.8 (110)
Rush Rate 49.2% (92) 59.2% (25)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

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That win BYU had against Arkansas may have been one of the luckiest wins of the season. It won on many gimmick plays and was gifted with exceptional field position. The Razorbacks outgained the Cougars, 424-281, and had a 96% post-game win expectancy, per CollegeFootballData.

The weather won’t be good in Lawerence on Saturday, with the forecast calling for 16 mph winds at kickoff. That means the rushing attacks will be pivotal in who comes out on top.

Kansas has one of the best rushing attacks in the country, while BYU has one of the worst.

Plus, BYU can’t stop the run to save its life, so going on the road for a second straight week against an elite rushing attack is not an ideal scenario for the Cougars’ defense.

I have Kansas projected as a -17.2 favorite, so I like the value at -8.5 and would play it up to -12.5.

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