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USC vs Arizona State Odds & Prediction: Target Saturday Night’s Over/Under

USC vs Arizona State Odds

[gamematchup league=”ncaaf” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/11/2021-USC-Logo-100.png” awayname=”USC” awayslug=”usc-trojans” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/asu.png” homename=”Arizona State” homeslug=”arizona-state-sun-devils” date=”Saturday, Sept. 23″ time=”10:30 p.m. ET” network=”FOX” col1text=”Spread” col2text=”Total” col3text=”Moneyline” col1awaytext=”-34.5″ col1awayline=”-110″ col1hometext=”+34.5″ col1homeline=”-110″ col2awaytext=”62.5″ col2hometext=”62.5″ col2awayline=”-105o / -115u” col2homeline=”-105o / -115u” col3awaytext=”-10000″ col3hometext=”+2500″ col3awayline=”” col3homeLine=”” bookname=”BetMGM” bookthumbnaillogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/902516_MGM2.png” bookreviewslug=”betmgm”][/gamematchup]

The USC Trojans embark on their first road trip of the season to face the Arizona State Sun Devils on Saturday.

These teams enter this game on completely different trajectories, as USC is flying high with Caleb Williams, while ASU has lost its last two games amid lots of injuries.

While there have been plenty of entertaining games in this series, this will not be one of them. The gap between the Trojans offense and the Sun Devils’ injury-riddled offense is about the size of the Grand Canyon, which is why it makes perfect sense for USC to be such a big favorite.

Let’s take a look at the odds in the final Pac-12 matchup between ASU and USC.

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When they aren’t restricting access to local reporters, the Trojans are pretty good at putting points on the board.

Williams is the rare hyped-up quarterback who actually lives up to all the hype. He’s so good that nobody bats an eye when he’s compared to Patrick Mahomes, and he’s putting up Mahomes-level stats in college.

After a masterful Heisman campaign last year, Williams already has thrown for 878 yards and 12 touchdowns in three games this season, and that’s with him sitting out large portions of second halves because USC is blowing teams out.

It helps that Williams has an almost endless stream of weapons in Lincoln Riley’s offense.

Tahj Washington leads the team in receiving with 233 yards and three touchdowns, but there’s hardly any drop-off from him to Dorian Singer, Zachariah Branch, Mario Williams, Brenden Rice and Duce Robinson.

The Trojans can kill teams on the ground as well, with MarShawn Lloyd rushing for 7.8 yards per carry.

Even though USC’s offense grabs the headlines, its defense looks to be a bit better than it was last year. The Trojans defense also grades out well, and it makes sense after they allowed 24 total points in their last two games, and most of those scores were in garbage time.

USC has gotten after the passer with eight sacks as a team, led by Solomon Byrd with a team-leading 2.5 sacks.

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[subheader sizedown=”false” center=”false” text=”Arizona State Sun Devils” subtext=”” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/asu.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/odds/arizona-state-sun-devils” link1follow=”false”][/subheader]

Good fortune has not been on the side of the Sun Devils this football season.

Head coach Kenny Dillingham brought in tons of transfers to help ASU bounce back after the Herm Edwards era, but a poorly-timed postseason ban announcement and an almost comical amount of injuries have thrown everything out of whack.

This isn’t just missing a few starters. Just look at how bad the Sun Devils offensive line has been hit with the injury bug:

https://twitter.com/ChrisKarpman/status/1700768243835875379?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1700768243835875379%7Ctwgr%5E22d7e951f9c283001f778db6ee814820392b9b51%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Ftrojanswire.usatoday.com%2Flists%2Farizona-state-enters-usc-game-under-the-worst-possible-set-of-circumstances%2F

Not good! And the offensive line isn’t the only problem.

Freshman starting quarterback Jaden Rashada is out. Backup QB Trenton Bourguet is out. Running backs DeCarlos Brooks and Tevin White likely won’t play. Defensive end Clayton Smith, backup offensive tackle Max Iheanachor and wide receiver Melquan Stovall each left the Fresno State loss with injuries as well, just to name a few.

As a result, ASU has not scored a single point in its last six quarters. It suffered eight turnovers in its 29-0 loss to Fresno State last Saturday (yes, you read that right), four of which came from backup QB Drew Pyne.

Pyne actually threw for 318 yards and three touchdowns against the Trojans last year when he was at Notre Dame, but he does not have the ND offensive line in front of him this time, so it’s hard to envision a repeat performance.

In spite of all the offensive issues, the Sun Devils defense has actually been decent.

ASU had six sacks against the Bulldogs and that helped them limit Fresno State to 29 points, which is pretty impressive given all the turnovers. The Sun Devils are top-40 in Rushing and Passing Success Rate, so maybe they provide a bit more resistance than USC is used to.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how USC and Arizona State match up statistically:

USC Offense vs. Arizona State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 14 38
Line Yards 3 67
Pass Success 4 40
Havoc 4 116
Finishing Drives 19 79
Quality Drives 14 108
Arizona State Offense vs. USC Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 94 61
Line Yards 92 23
Pass Success 123 20
Havoc 109 6
Finishing Drives 125 1
Quality Drives 129 25
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 59 65
PFF Coverage 49 77
Special Teams SP+ 56 66
Middle 8 48 76
Seconds per Play 26.0 (55) 25.3 (35)
Rush Rate 43.9% (111) 49.5% (101)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”USC vs Arizona State” subtext=”Betting Pick & Prediction” center=”false” logo1url=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/252389_action-logo-check.png”][/subheader]

When most sportsbooks are favoring USC by 34 to 35 points, it is fair to expect this game to be an absolute blowout. I just don’t like the spread because I don’t want to risk a backdoor cover by ASU. It’s just too many points.

That’s why I like the over of 61.5 points. The Trojans can get to 50 on their own, and I think the Sun Devils are capable of a functional offensive outing that scores 14 or 17 points. ASU won’t commit that many turnovers again and that should lead to more scoring drives — even if they come in garbage time.

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