It’s NFL overreaction week!
I’m sure you’ve heard this already (or are sick of hearing it altogether), but recreational bettors have a tendency to overvalue what happened in Week 1 when examining NFL odds and spreads for Week 2.
Remember, while we have the luxury of examining data from real regular season action, it is just a one-week sample that can lead to bettors putting too much emphasis on those results.
On the other hand, long-term winners avoid making mistakes like overvaluing small samples of data when handicapping NFL odds.
With this in mind, let’s dig into the two smartest NFL picks for Week 2, including spread bets Seattle Seahawks vs. Detroit Lions and Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals.
NFL Picks for Week 2
*NFL odds as of Sunday morning
Seahawks vs. Lions Pick
1 p.m. ET | FOX
The Seahawks got smoked by the Los Angeles Rams in Week 1 while the Detroit Lions beat the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs in the Thursday night season opener, so it’s not all that surprising to see the market’s biggest bettors taking a contrarian position on Seattle this afternoon.
Pete Carroll’s team was available as a 6-point underdog earlier this week, but as I just mentioned, large wagers have been flowing on the Seahawks ever since.
The Action Network’s NFL public betting data is reporting that Geno Smith and Company have landed 51% of the tickets, suggesting very balanced action.
However, the underdogs have also attracted a much more impressive 69% of the money, helping to explain why oddsmakers have felt motivated to adjust this spread down to +4.5 heading into Sunday afternoon’s matchup.
PRO Report pick: Seahawks +4.5 (+110)
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Ravens vs Bengals Pick
1 p.m. ET | CBS
Just like Seattle above, Cincinnati got pounded one week ago but that hasn’t stopped big bets from backing the Bengals in Week 2.
Behind 78% of the loot, and on just 57% of the tickets, the Bengals have stretched from -3 to a consensus of -3.5 as of the time of writing.
And while most sportsbooks are at -3.5, a handful of shops, like FanDuel, are offering Cincy at -3, so be sure to shop for the best NFL odds if expecting a Bengals bounceback against the Ravens.
PRO Report pick: Bengals -3 (-118) via FanDuel
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