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UTEP vs Arizona Odds & Picks: Value on Late-Night Over/Under

UTEP vs Arizona Odds

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Let’s head down to Tucson, Arizona, where the Arizona Wildcats will host the UTEP Miners in Pac-12 After Dark action.

The Wildcats are looking to build off a gritty performance against Mississippi State that ended in a 31-24 overtime loss. The Wildcats were down early but came roaring back thanks to the play of quarterback Jayden de Laura.

The Miners got absolutely waxed last week and lost, 38-7, to a Northwestern team they were favored over. I don’t think the bottom of the barrel has been reached quite yet, but we’re getting there.

Let’s dig deeper into both of these teams and see if we can uncover a best bet in this UTEP vs. Arizona betting preview for Saturday, Sept. 16.

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Is this the Jacob Cowing revenge game? Well if it is, the Miners are in big trouble.

UTEP ranks 42nd in Rushing Success Rate and 35th in Line Yards. This team is an absolute snail, and if it’s going to play slow, it has to remain successful on the ground.

Unfortunately for UTEP, Arizona is pretty stingy against the run. This could be a disaster for the Miners, as they’re also 83rd in Offensive Finishing Drives. If they find themselves getting stuffed in short-yardage situations, a lot of their potential touchdown drives will result in punts or field goals.

Senior quarterback Gavin Hardison will have to protect the football in this matchup, and I’m sure the Miners will look to improve their passing attack. UTEP ranks 83rd in Passing Success Rate, which is a huge problem against a team that can stifle the run.

I expect the Miners to try and keep the ball away from Arizona’s offense, but I have a hard time believing they’ll be able to rely on their ground attack against Arizona’s defensive front.

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Arizona is a fun team to watch. Last week, it appeared the Wildcats were going to get blown out, but they fought back rather quickly. de Laura played a terrific game, as did Tetairoa McMillan, who racked up 181 yards receiving.

It’s usually a good idea to buy low on a team that showed a lot of fight the week before, but I’m a bit worried that we could see a sleepy effort from Arizona. The Wildcats know the Miners just got trucked by Northwestern, so it’s entirely possible they’ll overlook their opponent.

Even if de Laura is sleepy to start, I think the Wildcats will take care of business against the Miners. I’m assuming they’re going to rely on their run game, as the Miners’ defensive “strength” comes against the pass.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how UTEP and Arizona match up statistically:

UTEP Offense vs. Arizona Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 42 28
Line Yards 35 18
Pass Success 83 66
Havoc 49 54
Finishing Drives 83 32
Quality Drives 56 46
Arizona Offense vs. UTEP Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 28 98
Line Yards 47 78
Pass Success 5 80
Havoc 111 90
Finishing Drives 75 94
Quality Drives 82 84
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 39 70
PFF Coverage 82 119
Special Teams SP+ 133 56
Middle 8 55 57
Seconds per Play 30.5 (123) 27.5 (78)
Rush Rate 64.0% (15) 41.6% (119)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

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I usually like to back a team after a gritty effort the week before, but the market is steering me away from Arizona here.

I could see the Wildcats overlooking UTEP here after they faced an SEC opponent and saw the Miners get worked by the worst team in the Big Ten.

That being said, I think the under is the best play here. Even if Arizona comes out hot, I have a hard time believing UTEP’s offense can keep pace. The Miners rank outside the top 80 in Passing Success Rate and Finishing Drives for a reason.

Both of these offenses are complete snails, and although the number has started to crash, it still sits above the key number of 55. Give me the under, and let’s root for some defense in Tucson.

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John Feltman

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