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Fresno State vs Arizona State Odds & Prediction: Can Sun Devils Keep It Close?

Fresno State vs Arizona State Odds

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Fresno State vs. Arizona State is a great Week 3 nightcap. Both teams have taken similar paths this season and are separated by just a 3-point spread.

With Fresno State hitting the road, new quarterbacks on each side make for an intriguing matchup. The Bulldogs will face a tough task in Tempe, as the Sun Devils may be figuring things out on offense.

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Fresno State has started the year with two close victories. It beat Purdue by four, then escaped Eastern Washington with a three-point, double-overtime win. This is expected to be another close game, as Fresno State is favored by three.

The Bulldogs have struggled to replace all of the offensive production they lost from last season. They rank 73rd in Offensive Success Rate, and the bulk of that success has come through the air. Fresno State ranks 41st in Passing Success Rate and 37th in passing PPA, while the rushing attack ranks just 98th in Success Rate and 115th in PPA.

Offensive line play has been an issue for the Bulldogs. The unit ranks 108th in PFF pass blocking and 83rd in PFF run blocking. If ASU is able to push them around in the trenches, Fresno State could struggle on Saturday night.

Quarterback Mikey Keene is averaging 0.13 EPA per play this season. Against Purdue, he put up a 92nd-percentile EPA per dropback. However, he was only able to manage a 41st-percentile output against EWU. Eastern Washington’s defense is rated 108th in FCS by SP+, so those results are a bit concerning.

Fresno State’s defense ranks 70th in Success Rate and 78th in Finishing Drives. The Bulldogs have been a bit better against the run this season, but have played like a middle-of-the-road defense overall.

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Freshman Jaden Rashada has taken over at quarterback, likely earlier than expected. The four-star recruit seems to still be getting acclimated to college football. He’s averaging -0.08 EPA per play, but there have been flashes of his talent.

Kenny Dillingham is trying to turn this program around, but the Sun Devils are off to a rocky start. After a close win against FCS Southern Utah and a loss to Oklahoma State, ASU’s offense is 97th in Success Rate and 73rd in Finishing Drives.

Behind Rashada, the passing game is 115th in Success Rate, but 82nd in PPA.

The Arizona State defense has been a bright spot this year, ranking 46th in Success Rate and 36th in Explosiveness. The Sun Devils have been strong against both the run and the pass, ranking 40th and 54th in Success Rate, respectively.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Fresno State and Arizona State match up statistically:

Fresno State Offense vs. Arizona State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 98 46
Line Yards 97 46
Pass Success 33 47
Havoc 34 105
Finishing Drives 10 119
Quality Drives 89 73
Arizona State Offense vs. Fresno State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 75 74
Line Yards 60 35
Pass Success 118 75
Havoc 73 101
Finishing Drives 51 74
Quality Drives 113 82
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 115 70
PFF Coverage 114 63
Special Teams SP+ 108 77
Middle 8 120 44
Seconds per Play 25.2 (42) 27.1 (70)
Rush Rate 45.8% (109) 53.1% (59)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

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These teams are in very similar positions. Both have struggled on offense, but have still looked competent at times with new quarterbacks and OK defensive play.

Because these teams are so similar, I want to grab the points Saturday night.

It’s going to be hot in Tempe, as the forecasted temperature is well over 90 degrees. I think the Sun Devils will keep this close and could potentially even come out of this game with a victory.

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Cody Goggin

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