[gamematchup league="nfl" awaylogo="https://assets.actionnetwork.com/598430_bears1.png" awayname="Bears" awayslug="chicago-bears" homelogo="https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/tb.png" homename="Buccaneers" homeslug="tampa-bay-buccaneers" date="Sunday, Sep 17" time="1:00pm ET" network="FOX" col1text="Spread" col2text="Total" col3text="Moneyline" col1awaytext="+3" col1awayline="-110" col1hometext="-3" col1homeline="-110" col2awaytext="41.5" col2hometext="41.5" col2awayline="-110o / -110u" col2homeline="-110o / -110u" col3awaytext="+130" col3hometext="-154" col3awayline="" col3homeline="" bookname="FanDuel" bookthumbnaillogo="https://assets.actionnetwork.com/392973_FanDuel.png" bookreviewslug="fanduel"][/gamematchup]There’s a bad team with big betting value against the spread in Bears vs. Buccaneers on this Sunday of NFL Week 2.
Action Network PRO and Bet Labs‘ winning systems are active today with a bunch of picks to consider.
Today, a 62%-winning NFL trend in particular is active Sunday with a Bears vs. Buccaneers spread prediction.
Tampa Bay was the worst bet against the spread in the entire NFL last season (4-13-1 ATS), but picked up an outright win in the opener.
The Bears, meanwhile, were the second-worst bet against the spread (5-11-1 ATS) behind the Bucs.
Let’s see what it has in store today for Bears vs. Buccaneers in NFL Week 2, which features Tampa Bay a short home favorite.
Bears vs. Buccaneers Spread Prediction
The Bears were walloped by the Packers as home favorites to kick off the season, yet again losing against the spread.
And despite upsetting a potentially-fraudulent Vikings squad, the Buccaneers mustered just 3.6 yards per play – the third-worst mark of any offense Sunday.
In a matchup of two seemingly unattractive sides, our 62%-winning NFL model shows value on the Chicago Bears against the spread in Week 2 this Sunday.
Justin Fields and Co. match Bet Labs’ Road Dog, Low Total After Bad Season PRO NFL model Sunday afternoon.
This angle suggests betting:
- Road underdogs
- When the betting spread is 0.5-6.5
- With an over/under at 50 or lower
The crux of the model, though, is betting teams that won six or fewer games the previous season – as the Bears did (3-14).
[betlabsembed systemid="1039990" systemname="Road Dog, Low Total After Bad Season (PRO)" leaguename="nfl" filters="%7B%22list%22%3A%5B%22the%20game%20was%20played%20on%20Sunday%20or%20Monday%22%2C%22the%20team%20is%20the%20Dog%22%2C%22the%20team's%20previous%20season%20win%20total%20is%20between%200%20and%206%22%2C%22the%20team%20is%20the%20Visitor%20team%22%2C%22the%20game%20is%20played%20during%20the%20Regular%20season%22%2C%22the%20spread%20is%20between%200.5%20and%206.5%22%2C%22the%20closing%20total%20is%20between%200%20and%2050%22%2C%22the%20game%20was%20played%20in%20September%20or%20December%20or%20November%22%5D%7D" amountwon="$8,615" record="246-152-10" winpct="62%"][/betlabsembed]The theory to this winning NFL model is this:
“This system looks to take advantage of the perceptions that a team may not be very good based on last season’s results. When the total isn’t too high, small dogs have covered at a very high rate.”
They’ve covered 60% of the time, in fact.
It’s a recommended pick on the Bears to cover the spread in Week 2.
PRO Report Prediction: Bears ATS
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For more Action Network coverage of the 2023 NFL season, check out the latest NFL odds, as well as the public betting percentage breakdowns for all games.