Giants vs. Phillies Odds
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The Philadelphia Phillies will open an important three-game set with the San Francisco Giants while holding a two-game lead over them for the top NL wild-card spot.
The Phillies will start Aaron Nola (4.58 ERA, 153 and 1/3 IP) versus opener Scott Alexander (4.06 ERA, 37 and 2/3 IP) and are priced as -165 favorites.
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Alexander will open this contest and likely lead in to Sean Manaea for the bulk of the game, followed by a strong Giants bullpen. That combination might be a little tougher than it sounds, as Manaea has been in excellent form in the second half of the season.
Alexander has pitched to a 3.63 xERA with a 4.02 xFIP. He has allowed hard contact 33.1% of the time and features a Pitching+ rating of 97.
Manaea has pitched to a 3.42 ERA with a WHIP of 1.08 in 23 2/3 innings since the All-Star break. He has thrown to an xFIP of 3.81 this season and has seen that mark improve drastically since his first 10 outings. He owns a Stuff+ of 94, and a Location+ of 101.
The Giants’ bullpen continues to be a strength as well, as you would expect from a team locked into a playoff spot despite owning relatively modest offensive results. In 166 1/3 innings since the All-Star break, Giants relievers have pitched to a seventh-best 3.43 ERA, with an xFIP of 4.16.
Over the last 30 days, the Giants’ offense has hit to a wRC+ of 71, with a league-low hard-contact rate of 28.8%. They will be in their better split versus a righty in Nola. They own a wRC+ of 95 versus right-handed pitching this season.
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Nola has struggled to an ERA of 5.24 and WHIP of 1.31 in 34 1/3 innings since the All-Star break, but his underlying metrics remain solid and he should be due to run better on batted balls over a larger sample. His xERA has trended upward to its current mark of 3.87, but it still is a clear case of his tough luck.
His stuff still rates well better than league average (106 Stuff+) and his command has been strong as well (107 Location+) despite allowing 1.58 HR/9. Nola has stranded just 65.6% of baserunners this season, which is 8% below his career average clip.
The Phillies have a wRC+ of 101 over the last 30 days, which is 16th in the majors. A well higher-than-average strikeout rate of 23.8% has been the main concern. They have hit to a wRC+ of 102 versus left-handed pitching this season.
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Giants vs. Phillies” subtext=”Betting Pick & Prediction” center=”false” logo1url=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/252389_action-logo-check.png”][/subheader]
Manaea has stabilized throughout the second half and seems likely to continue finding better results moving forward. He will be supported by a strong Giants bullpen, which could offer the Giants a chance to hang around in this contest despite their shaky offensive play.
Nola still deserves to be viewed as an above-average starter, and this sets up as a great spot for him to bounce back with a better outing at home versus a Giants offense that has been drastically worse than average, even in their better splits versus right-handed pitching.
This quietly sets up as a potentially lower-scoring matchup, especially with weather conditions likely to be slightly favorable to pitchers at first pitch.
Betting the under at +100 is my favorite play on the game, and I would bet anything better than -110.
Pick: Under 8.5 +100 (DraftKings)
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