Sean Koerner — FantasyPros’ most-accurate draft ranker from 2019-21 — is breaking down his positional rankings and draft strategy for 2023.
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Quarterbacks | Running Backs | Tight Ends
Fantasy WR Rankings & Tiers
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Tier 1
Justin Jefferson
Ja’Marr Chase
Cooper Kupp
You could make a case for taking any one of these WRs first overall in the draft. I only have a two-point difference between Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase, but Burrow’s recent calf injury would give me pause in taking Chase ahead of Jefferson at this point. Either way, these WRs are a great way to start your draft and having Cooper Kupp fall to you in the 6-7 overall pick range seems like one of the best values of Round 1.
Takeaway: Draft all three of these WRs at ADP
Tier 2
Tyreek Hill
It seems crazy that Tyreek Hill would post career-high numbers for targets (170), receptions (119) and yards (1,710) after leaving Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs to play for Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins. But that just shows how much of a centerpiece he was in this offense. Hill saw a career-high 32% target rate and led the league with a 3.1 yards per route run rate last season. I don’t think I would consider him over any of the Tier 1 WRs, but he is clearly ahead of the next group of WRs, which puts him in a tier of his own.
Takeaway: Target Hill at ADP
Tier 3
Stefon Diggs
CeeDee Lamb
Garrett Wilson
Amon-Ra St. Brown
A.J. Brown
Davante Adams
This group of stud WR1s all go between the end of Round 1 or mid/late Round 2.
Due to all of the chaos/news that has been happening recently to the RB position (surprise, expect more!) I think it’s critical to scoop up either Bijan Robinson or Saquon Barkley after Christian McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler, Travis Kelce and the top-four WRs are off the board. You will likely have one of these WRs make it back to you in Round 2. That typically means Stefon Diggs, CeeDee Lamb and Amon-Ra St. Brown will all be off the board for your next pick, but I have no problem targeting Garrett Wilson or St. Brown.
Davante Adams does worry me considering he doesn’t seem like a good fit with Jimmy Garoppolo and if Garoppolo were ever to miss time (which always seems likely), Adams will be more of a WR2 option. However, if he’s the last remaining option from this tier, I’ll take him.
If both Robinson and Barkley are taken (which is possible if you are picking 10-12 overall), I would consider drafting two WRs from this tier and then taking 1-2 RBs on the Round 3-4 turn.
Takeaway: Target this Tier heavily once McCaffrey, Ekeler, Kelce and Tiers 1-2 of WRs are off the board
Tier 4
Jaylen Waddle
Tee Higgins
Both Jaylen Waddle and Tee Higgins are the No. 2 target on their team, but they’re in offenses that can produce multiple WR1 options. They’re excellent picks toward the end of the second round, especially if you landed McCaffrey/Ekeler/Kelce with your first pick.
This is also the time the top-three QBs (Mahomes/Allen/Hurts) go in a hurry. I’d consider one of those QBs if I was able to land Jefferson, Chase or Kupp with my first pick. I think it’s too risky to go the first two rounds without a WR this year.
Takeaway: Great mid/late Round 2 options, especially for those who took an RB or TE in Round 1
Tier 5
Devonta Smith
D.K. Metcalf
Amari Cooper
Deebo Samuel
Keenan Allen
Chris Olave
This batch of WRs typically goes in the 3rd-4th Round. It’s a pretty valuable Tier because it goes at a time when the RB position starts to get dicey and it’s not a great time to target QB/TE. If you are drafting in the 7-12 slots, there is a chance you could land two WRs from this Tier, which would be ideal if you started the first couple of rounds targeting other positions.
Amari Cooper is usually the last WR drafted from this Tier, which means you can usually get him in the 4th. He had the 6th highest share of team air yards last season and stands to benefit a ton if Deshaun Watson is able to have a bounce-back season.
Chris Olave is going much earlier than Cooper and while I love Olave as a talent, I do wonder if Derek Carr will be a slight downgrade. Olave saw 24 targets 20+ yards downfield which was the 10th most in the league last season. Andy Dalton was 11th (out of 38 qualified QBs) in catchable target rate on passes 20+ yards downfield, while Derek Carr ranked 24th. Olave also took advantage of both Michael Thomas/Jarvis Landry missing most of the 2022 season. If Michael Thomas is able to stay healthy for most of 2023, it could eat into Olave’s target share to make him more of a mid-range WR2, than a fringe WR1/2 (where he is being drafted).
Takeaway: Fade Olave at ADP, target Cooper at ADP. Overall, this is a valuable Tier because it’s during a time when you’ll want to continue to stock up on WRs and it’s a shaky time to be targeting QB/RB/TE.
Tier 6
Calvin Ridley
Jerry Jeudy
Both of these WRs have the talent to produce as a Tier 5+ wideout this year, but they also have a few more question marks.
It’s been nearly two years since we’ve seen Calvin Ridley play at a high level. There’s a chance he could be a bit rusty, similar to Deshaun Watson last year, but he’s still at the tail end of his prime at 28 and is now paired with one of the best young QBs in the league. If you recall, I’ve always been high on Ridley and think he’s worth taking a flier on here, but I prefer landing his teammate Christian Kirk, who goes a could rounds later.
Jerry Jeudy will benefit if new HC Sean Payton is able to get Russell Wilson to have a bounce-back season. Jeudy’s value recently went up a bit after Tim Patrick suffered yet another season-ending injury before Week 1. These two WRs offer a nice consolation prize if you missed out on grabbing 2+ WRs by the end of Tier 5. You should definitely have at least 2 by the time this Tier is off the board.
Takeaway: Target Jerry Jeudy at ADP. You should probably have at least 2 WRs before this WR is off the board.
Tier 7
Tyler Lockett
Christian Watson
D.J. Moore
Christian Kirk
Chris Godwin
Mike Evans
Terry McLaurin
Michael Pittman Jr.
DeAndre Hopkins
Diontae Johnson
Brandon Aiyuk
Drake London
Marquise Brown
Mike Williams
We need to land a No. 3 WR by the time this tier is off the board, or even start stocking up our bench with another WR3 option. The best values are Tyler Lockett, Christian Kirk and Mike Evans, while Terry McLaurin, Drake London and Mike Williams go a tad too early.
Landing Christian Kirk or Tyler Lockett near the end of the sixth round is one of the more valuable picks at the position because you are getting a WR2/3 option for cheap, but it’s also when the WR position starts to take a significant drop. The drop-off from WR31-50 is 31 points and it’s a range where you don’t want to be relying on any of them as your WR3 as they all typically have a wide range of outcomes, which is perfect for your bench.
Michael Pittman Jr. has the widest range of outcomes in this Tier. Anthony Richardson will likely become the Colts’ starting QB at some point in his rookie season, so the question is when? He’s going to need quite a bit of work to adjust to the NFL as a passer but will lean on his rushing ability a ton bail him out. Both factors will make it tough for Pittman to maintain low-end WR2 value. However, when Gardner Minshew is under center, the Colts’ passing attack will be much more potent and Pittman may even be able to post high-end WR1 numbers. That could happen for at least the first few games, so just realize that if you land Pittman, you may want to sell high and trade him away if he gets off to a hot start with Minshew.
Takeaway: Target Tyler Lockett, Christian Kirk, and Mike Evans at ADP. Fade Terry McLaurin, Drake London, and Mike Williams at ADP.
Tier 8
Jordan Addison
Kadarius Toney
Brandin Cooks
Gabriel Davis
Jordan Addison is my favorite rookie WR and the only one I think should be drafted ahead of ADP.
The Vikings likely drafted Addison in the first round to immediately take over the Adam Thielen role. He’s a smaller receiver at 5-foot-11 and 175 pounds, which has raised concerns, but I’m confident it will not be an issue. He gives me DeVonta Smith and Emmanuel Sanders vibes. Both thrived at the NFL level with a similar height/weight as Addison.
The former Pitt and USC star is also capable of lining up inside and outside and winning at all levels of the field. I don’t envision him as ever being a true No. 1 WR in an offense, but will thrive as a No. 2 option (similar to Smith or Sanders).
Here is a great catch by Addison in camp, and I would imagine Cousins realizes by now that he has another WR he can trust to make plays like this:
QB Kirk Cousins connects with rookie WR Jordan Addison in the back corner of the endzone: pic.twitter.com/fuPfFgUfq6
— vikesinsider (@vikesinsider) July 31, 2023
Gabe Davis had a ton of hype entering the 2022 season and as the President of the Gabe Davis Fan Club, I was partly responsible. However, he was unfairly labeled as a “bust” and everyone seems to move on from him.
Did Davis fail to reach my lofty expectations? Of course. He had an ADP of WR26 entering the season and finished as the WR27. In what universe is that a “bust” in fantasy? He was very much a boom/bust type of receiver on a weekly basis, but that comes with the territory of a player who sees most of his targets downfield. He was the only player who saw a 15% target share and an Average Depth of Target of 16+ yards.
Davis also had a couple of other factors going against him last season. He suffered an ankle injury in practice heading into Week 2, which forced him to miss that week, but he later admitted that he may have returned too soon in Week 3. Davis was likely hindered by his ankle injury until after Buffalo’s Week 7 bye. Just a couple of games later, Josh Allen injured the UCL in his elbow, which then led to Allen being less willing to throw the ball downfield, which sapped Davis’ value.
Count me in for buying the dip on Davis at ADP this year.
Takeaway: Target Addison and Davis at ADP. While I think Toney is a shaky pick in this range due to his injury risk, this is the range you are drafting bench players. I’m OK taking swings on players with massive upside to start filling out your bench with.
Tier 9
George Pickens
Courtland Sutton
JuJu Smith-Schuster
Michael Thomas
Zay Jones
Jahan Dotson
Allen Lazard
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
JuJu Smith-Schuster’s ADP took a hit when it looked like DeAndre Hopkins’ most likely landing spot was going to be with the Patriots. However, after Hopkins signed with the Titans, we haven’t seen JuJu’s ADP return to where it should be WR40-45 range. It might seem like Smith-Schuster has been around for over a decade, but he’s the same age as D.J. Moore and still in his prime at 26 years old. The Patriots offense was a disaster under Matt Patricia last season, but it should be better under new offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien. Smith-Schuster will likely operate as Mac Jones’ No. 1 target this season, which gives him a nice floor/ceiling combo in this range.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba reminds me of when CeeDee Lamb landed on the Cowboys, where he began his career as their No. 3 WR. We knew eventually he would become the team’s top receiver over the next few seasons. JSN finds himself in a similar situation where he will likely be the No. 3 option behind DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. I think his ADP may be a bit too high if everyone is able to stay healthy. However, he has WR2/3 upside if either Metcalf/Lockett misses time. I still think Addison should be the first rookie WR off the board, though.
Takeaway: Target Smith-Schuster and Allen Lazard at ADP, fade Jahan Dotson. If you missed out on Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk or Evan Engram, then Zay Jones provides you with the cheapest way to invest in the Jaguars passing attack. I get the market shying away from him with Ridley now in the mix, but he still offers upside on your bench in the event any of the Jags pass catchers miss time.
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Tier 10
Jakobi Meyers
Rashod Bateman
Treylon Burks
Elijah Moore
Nico Collins
Quentin Johnston
Romeo Doubs
Rondale Moore
Jakoki Meyers, Rashod Bateman and Elijah Moore offer more value in PPR formats and are nice high-floor options for your bench. Nico Collins and Quentin Johnston offer the most upside in this tier. Johnston might be getting drafted a bit earlier than I would like to take him, but he offers the most upside of all rookie WRs. He’s just a Keenan Allen or Mike Williams injury away from offering WR2/3 value, and it seems likely for that to happen at some point this season.
Takeaway: Target Meyers, Bateman and Moore in PPR formats if you need a high-floor option on your bench. Target Nico Collins at ADP. I’m fine with taking Quentin Johnston at ADP based on his WR2/3 upside if Keenan/Williams ever miss time.
Tier 11
Adam Thielen
Tyler Boyd
Michael Gallup
Odell Beckham Jr.
Van Jefferson
Zay Flowers
Curtis Samuel
Darnell Mooney
K.J. Osborn
Donovan Peoples-Jones
Robert Woods
Rashid Shaheed
This tier has a handful of receivers who have a very high floor but offer a low ceiling. These are WRs I would only draft in formats where you will likely have to start them often (14+ team leagues, leagues that start 4+ WRs, or a Best Ball team with a handful of boom/bust WRs already). Adam Thielen, Tyler Boyd, Curtis Samuel and Robert Woods are the specific players I am referring to.
Instead, this is a time to target upside and if they get off to a slow start to the season, you can cut them loose for someone else. Michael Gallup, Odell Beckham Jr., Van Jefferson and Zay Flowers have the type of upside I’m looking for in this range. Gallup was playing at less than 100% last season and the Cowboys want him to have a more versatile route tree this season. While the Cowboys did add Brandin Cooks in the offseason, they also lost tight end Dalton Schultz. The two moves could offset each other in terms of potential targets for Gallup this season.
Beckham has WR3 upside as long as he’s healthy and the Ravens offense becomes much more pass-heavy under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken. The same goes for Flowers, who could become the Ravens’ No. 1 WR in his rookie season.
Jefferson had a season to forget in 2022 as he missed the first seven weeks and only played three games with Matthew Stafford under center last season. He will likely be the No. 2 WR for the Rams, meaning he should be a top-three target for Stafford this season. The Rams defense will likely take a big step back this season, meaning they’ll likely have to throw even more. Jefferson is a great late-round pick.
Takeaway: Target Adam Thielen, Tyler Boyd, Curtis Samuel and Robert Woods if you need a high-floor PPR option. Target Michael Gallup, Odell Beckham, Van Jefferson and Zay Flowers in all other formats for their upside.
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Tier 12
Jameson Williams
Alec Pierce
Skyy Moore
Marvin Mims
D.J. Chark
Jonathan Mingo
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
Russell Gage
John Metchie III
I still can’t figure out why Jameson Williams is being drafted as the WR44. Are people aware that he’s suspended for the first six games? I’m high on Jameson as a prospect and can usually make a case as to why you should draft/stash a player who is expected to miss a handful of games, but people are drafting him closer to where I would have him ranked if he was eligible for all 17 games this season.
Marvin Mims is my favorite target of this tier as you can still get him much later. He’s set to become the Broncos’ No. 3 receiver following Tim Patrick’s Achilles tear. Mims is a second-round rookie out of Oklahoma who profiles as a downfield threat out of the slot, which means he won’t need as many targets to offer spiked weeks.
Bryce Young is a QB who loves to throw on the move and to short/intermediate areas of the field, getting his receiver in position to rack up yards after the catch. He’s less willing/capable of targeting downfield, which means D.J. Chark doesn’t seem like a great fit for Young.
However, Jonathan Mingo is a perfect fit as he turns into an RB with the ball in his hands and will typically see targets closer to the line of scrimmage. He’s sort of an RB/WR hybrid who gives me Deebo Samuel/Laviska Shenault vibes. The rookie finds himself in a WR room that is so wide open that he has a realistic shot to be the team’s #1 target by the end of the season.
Takeaway: Target Marvin Mims, Jonathan Mingo at ADP. When someone in your league drafts Jameson Williams, ask them, “Why?” and let me know what their answer was.
Tier 13
Jayden Reed
Josh Downs
Hunter Renfrow
Mecole Hardman
Tyquan Thornton
Wan’dale Robinson
Rashee Rice
Chase Claypool
Josh Palmer
Mack Hollins
Jayden Reed is my favorite target in this tier since he should open the season as the Packers’ starting slot receiver. He’s excellent after the catch and has a chance to be the No. 2 target in the Packers offense, which gives him a nice floor/ceiling combo this late in your draft.
Mecole Hardman is a sneaky pick in this range because he has the most injury upside of the tier. All it would take is an injury or two to the Jets’ WR room, and Hardman could become a top-two target for Aaron Rodgers. While it’s still unlikely, it’s at least a path for him to offer WR3 value at some point this season. I don’t think you can say that about any other WR in this Tier.
Rashee Rice is the only other receiver who has WR3 upside. He’s a second-round rookie out of SMU who gives me Chris Godwin vibes. Rice can make contested catches downfield or rack up yards after the catch on underneath targets. He’s a versatile receiver who could thrive in a wide-open WR room for the Chiefs. There is a chance he becomes a top-three target for Patrick Mahomes and is worth a flier this late.
Takeaway: Target Jayden Reed, Mecole Hardman, and Rashee Rice
