Jessica Andrade vs. Tatiana Suarez Odds
The UFC Nashville co-main event on Saturday features an important strawweight clash when Jessica Andrade and Tatiana Saurez clash on ESPN.
Andrade, who is a former champion in this weight class, is looking to stop the bleeding of a two-fight losing skid.
Standing in the Brazilian’s way is Suarez, a long-time prospect making her way back down to 115 pounds.
Multiple injuries kept Suarez on the sidelines for nearly four years, but the undefeated 32-year-old made a successful return at flyweight in February and will be looking for similar results a division down.
Let’s look into the UFC Nashville co-main event odds and my pick for Andrade vs. Suarez.
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Tale of the Tape
| Andrade | Suarez | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 24-11 | 10-0 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 9:20 | 9:49 |
| Height | 5’1″ | 5’5″ |
| Weight (pounds) | 115.5 pounds | 115.5 pounds |
| Reach (inches) | 62″ | 66″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 9/25/1991 | 12/19/1990 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 6.82 | 4.35 |
| SS Accuracy | 50% | 66% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 5.40 | 1.34 |
| SS Defense | 54% | 49% |
| Take Down Avg | 2.61 | 6.12 |
| TD Acc | 54% | 58% |
| TD Def | 73% | 100% |
| Submission Avg | 0.4 | 0.8 |
Despite Andrade being a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt who regularly takes part in grappling competitions, this matchup still has some “striker vs. grappler” feels attached due to the dominant submission wrestling of Suarez.
An accoladed freestyle wrestler who grew up defying the odds, Suarez possesses a skill set that’s historically hard to come by at strawweight.
We’ve seen what a wrestling base can do for undersized fighters such as two-time former champion Carla Esparza (someone whom Suarez beat down, mind you), so there’s no illusion as to what the assignment is for Suarez’s opponents.
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If forced to stand, Suarez appears to lack any real depth or comfort given that her strikes are typically a means to an end in regard to closing the distance.
Once in clinch space, Suarez has excellent wrestling chains that she likes to go to.
Whether she’s snapping down opponents into front-headlock positions or reaching down to snatch up single-legs, Suarez seldom seems at a loss for ideas in transition.
https://twitter.com/WMMARankings/status/1686821491327778841
That said, Suarez will need to be careful to not get too reckless when it comes to closing space or dropping down for submissions.
Aside from being a strong grappler from topside, Andrade is also a powerful puncher who can be difficult to get underneath given her stout stature.
An absolute powerhouse in this weight class, Andrade isn’t beyond getting high-amplitude takedowns of her own.
https://twitter.com/WMMARankings/status/1686005221325938688
I don’t suspect we’ll see Andrade get the jump on Suarez in that department, but things could get interesting if the Brazilian is able to use her wrestling in reverse.
Although Andrade is officially 1-2 opposite UFC-level southpaws, her two losses were fights that were primarily contested on the mat (against the likes of Valentina Shevchenko and Liz Carmouche).
Andrade’s boxing-centric style seemed more disjointed in open-stance affairs, but she still should have a considerable edge in striking stanzas with Suarez.
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Andrade vs. Suarez Pick
Despite the line opening a little wider, the American is still holding strong as the betting favorite across the board, listing Suarez -375 and Andrade +280 as of this writing.
Although I can’t blame anyone for taking an underdog shot at these odds in women’s MMA, I’m having a hard time cobbling together any confidence in Andrade finding her win conditions.
Outside of cleaning Suarez’s clock with a perfectly placed right hand, I don’t see the depth needed in Andrade’s counterstriking or grappling to consistently keep her afloat in this contest.
Suarez may not have looked great against Montana De La Rosa earlier this year, but – aside from the expected ring rust from a four-year layoff – De La Rosa was an actual flyweight who also comes from a wrestling base.
I expect Suarez to look much better and stronger now that she’s back in her natural weight class, particularly against Andrade.
I hate the price tag on Suarez’s moneyline, so I suggest taking a gander at her to win by submission if you’re looking to back the undefeated fighter.
Aside from submissions being Suarez’s preferred way to finish a fight, Andrade’s propensity to turtle to her base or commit to high underhooks serve as open invitations for opportunistic front-chokes.
Add in the fact that Andrade’s stature will keep snap-down options in play for Suarez on the feet, and I’ll be taking a healthy stab at Suarez’s submission prop (as well as sprinkling small on her to win in Rounds 2 or 3 when those numbers become more available).
Pick: Tatiana Suarez wins via submission (+125) | Bet to: +100 |
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