Sean Koerner — FantasyPros’ most-accurate draft ranker from 2019-21 — is breaking down his positional rankings and draft strategy for 2023.
This series is part of our PRO subscription, which will not only grant you access to these tiers, but also to his real-time rankings as part of our 2023 Fantasy Draft Kit.
Running back continues to be the most critical position in fantasy football.
There are two main reasons RB typically decides the fate of your team each season:
As the NFL becomes an increasingly pass-heavy league and RBs are deployed for specific purposes, there are fewer workhorse backs. Positional scarcity makes it critical to draft at least two workhorse RBs.
The position is very volatile. RBs are the most likely players to miss time due to injury or to lose their job. Given the position is much more about opportunity rather than talent, it paves the way for late-round picks or even waiver-wire pickups to emerge as league winners.
Because of those two factors, there are a lot of draft strategies focused solely on how many RBs you should acquire early on.
On one end of the spectrum is the Zero RB strategy, which I agree with … in theory. It mainly focuses on Reason No. 2 above, but ignores Reason No. 1. That’s why I would dub my approach as the RB Surplus Strategy: I first aim to draft two RBs before the end of Round 4/5 because, as I mentioned, it’s critical to acquire two who are set to open the season with a reliable workload. Then I target high-upside backs in the middle and late rounds.
Another important component of your draft strategy should be to understand the purpose of your bench. Generally, you don’t want to waste a bench slot on a quarterback or tight end since it’s very easy to find a replacement for either on the waiver wire if you’re in a pinch or need a bye-week fill-in.
If I have seven bench slots, I’ll usually aim to fill them with two to three WRs and four to five high-upside RBs.
Note: For Best Ball, my strategy is very different, and I usually draft five RBs total. (You can listen to my Best Ball tips, including how to approach roster construction here.)
The goal of stashing high-upside RBs, specifically, is to hopefully strike gold if one earns a one-off start or becomes their team’s starter indefinitely. Think about the backup RBs who usually require a No. 1 waiver wire claim or the highest Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB) bid to acquire when injury or depth chart news breaks mid-season — I can’t tell you how many times a RB who fits that profile was already on my bench.
Drafting RBs with the highest potential to be league winners allows me to be even more aggressive when I have first priority on waiver wire claims or still have a high percentage of my FAAB available.
To help you easily identify them, I will be releasing my RB Upside Ratings chart in the coming weeks. In that chart, I highlight which backup RBs offer the most upside at their current ADP based on where I will rank them when their starter is in/out of the lineup.
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Fantasy RB Rankings & Tiers
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Tier 1
Christian McCaffrey
Austin Ekeler
Christian McCaffrey and Austin Ekeler combined for two games with 20+ rush attempts last season and yet, both are the clear favorites to lead the position in scoring this year. That is because they dominate in high-value touches: receiving and goal-line. They leave the low-value touches (rush attempts outside of the red zone) to their backups.
I have the two backs neck and neck atop my RB rankings, but I give the slight edge to CMC (27) as he is a year younger than Ekeler (28) and will have the entire offseason to become even more integrated into the offense he was traded into in mid-season last year. The 49ers have one of the most fantasy-friendly running schemes and now we get to see one of the best backs in the league in it for a full season. The sky is the limit for CMC, and he should go anywhere from picks 1-5 overall.
Takeaway: Target both CMC and Ekeler at ADP.
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Tier 2
Saquon Barkley
Bijan Robinson
Jonathan Taylor
Derrick Henry
Tony Pollard
Nick Chubb
Josh Jacobs
We have a pretty massive mid-range RB1 tier this year, and I think there are 5-7 backs you could make a case for being the RB3. That’s why I have found it easier to just draft a WR or Travis Kelce in Round 1 and then take whichever one of these backs make it back to me in Round 2. That appears to be the optimal draft strategy right now and takes advantage of my Tiers approach.
Josh Jacobs and the Raiders failed to reach an agreement on a long-term deal, which resulted in him skipping the opening of training camp and even leaving the team. It’s a situation that needs to be monitored closely and could result in Jacobs skipping all of training camp and potentially even missing regular season games. Jacobs already carries a ton of risk coming off a 393-touch season, so he is a back I only target if I have to.
Takeaway: Target an elite WR over the RBs in this Tier being selected in the 1st round. Target the RBs in this Tier that make it back to you in Round 2. Be careful with Josh Jacobs.
Tier 3
Rhamondre Stevenson
Najee Harris
Joe Mixon
Breece Hall
If you miss out on a true RB1, this tier provides you with a fringe RB1/2 option. I would be very careful with Rhamondre Stevenson right now as the Patriots have been trying out FAs like Dalvin Cook and Leonard Fournette. It suggests the Pats might not be comfortable heading into 2023 with Pierre Strong being Stevenson’s main competition for touches.
Breece Hall’s ADP is about to drop quite a bit with it looking likely that the Jets ink Cook to a deal. I would avoid drafting Hall at his current ADP, and maybe once the dust settles after Cook’s pending deal, we can buy low on Hall. There are clearly concerns over Hall’s Week 1 availability, so Cook could also imply that Hall is a ways off from being 100% back from his knee injury.
Takeaway: Be careful with Rhamondre Stevenson and fade Breece Hall at current ADP.
Tier 4
Travis Etienne
Aaron Jones
Kenneth Walker III
Travis Etienne and Kenneth Walker III are both coming off strong first seasons in the NFL. However, both of their teams added some rookie competition in Tank Bigsby (third round) and Zach Charbonnet (second round). Both backs are capable of becoming workhorse backs at the NFL level, and I think both backs pose a threat to Etienne/Walker’s goal line touches.
Here were both backs’ rushing stats inside the opponent 5-yard line last season:
- Travis Etienne: 13 rush att, 3 TDs (5.34 xTDs)
- Kenneth Walker: 10 rush att, 2 TDs (4.11 xTDs)
Etienne and Walker were the second and third worst RBs in terms of TDs-below-expected inside the 5 last season. Often times this is a result of bad luck and it’ll mean we can expect that player’s TD rate to go up the following season. However, sometimes it can simply mean that a back is below average in goal-line situations.
The jury is still out on Etienne/Walker, but their home run-hitting style of running could suggest that they will continue to struggle in goal-line situations. Bigsby and Charbonnett both profile as above-average short yardage backs, so I would be concerned about either Etienne or Walker losing out on precious goal-line carries in 2023. It’s something that gives me pause before selecting either back.
Takeaway: Target Aaron Jones at ADP. Be cautious with Travis Etienne & Kenneth Walker III.
Tier 5
Miles Sanders
Dameon Pierce
Jahmyr Gibbs
Alexander Mattison
This is usually the range where we embark on the dreaded “frozen pond,” or as a lot of people call it now the “dead zone.” I’m not a fan of calling it the dead zone, because it paints a doom-and-gloom scenario we want to avoid at all costs.
That isn’t always the case. I prefer calling it the “frozen pond” because while on the surface all of these backs seem like safe plays, there is always a higher risk of the ground below you collapsing at a moment’s notice, sending you into the frozen depths. But if the ground manages to hold and you stay dry, you potentially end up with a “league winner.” Tony Pollard and Josh Jacobs were in the frozen pond range last year, surrounded by busts. Pollard was one of my most targeted RBs last year and it’s a strategy that paid off. Who will be this year’s Tony Pollard? Let’s take a walk across the “frozen pond” to see who that might be.
The first part of the “frozen pond” is a fairly sturdy part. All of these backs have a pretty strong hold on their team’s starting role. Miles Sanders signed a four-year, $25 million contract with the Panthers. While he’s going from a much more potent Eagles offense to the Panthers, a move that will likely hurt his efficiency across the board, he’s also much more likely to see a true workhorse role. I think Sanders is one of the safer bets on the frozen pond and is someone you should target in this range.
Dameon Pierce will be the Week 1 starter for a Texans offense that should take a step forward this season with the QB of their future, CJ Stroud. However, Devin Singletary could end up being a serious threat to Pierce’s weekly floor/ceiling combo.
Jahmyr Gibbs should inherit the D’Andre Swift role in the Lions offense right away. However, David Montgomery could see more of the early down work, especially near the goal line, which caps Gibbs’ upside as a rookie.
Alexander Mattison finally gets to become the Vikings’ lead back following the release of Dalvin Cook. However, he might not be talented enough to hold off all three backs behind him on the depth chart. Mattison is the textbook definition of a “frozen pond” back from the Tier.
Takeaway: Target Miles Sanders at ADP.
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Tier 6
Dalvin Cook
Javonte Williams
David Montgomery
James Conner
Rachaad White
J.K. Dobbins
Cam Akers
Now we are smack dab in the middle of the “frozen pond.” None of these backs are truly safe, but there could be 1-2 league winners in here.
Dalvin Cook has yet to sign with a team but is currently -500 to sign with the Jets. It’s a landing spot that seems like a below-average one, considering the Jets already have a high-end RB in Breece Hall. If it turns out that the Jets signed Cook because Hall’s injury is expected to prevent him from suiting up in Week 1, Cook will offer high-end RB2 value to begin the season. But ultimately, Cook may end up being more of a RB3/Flex value once Hall is fully healthy.
I can’t imagine Cook (28) being able to hold off a back like Hall (22) and this would likely become a very frustrating 50/50 timeshare. It’s a pending move that will lower both of their fantasy value. I’m avoiding Cook right now.
Javonte Williams carries a ton of injury risk heading into the season. There is a chance he’s eased back into action similar to J.K. Dobbins last season and there is still a chance the Broncos end up adding another veteran RB for insurance.
David Montgomery is my favorite back to target in this Tier. He’s being overlooked due to all of the hype surrounding Jahmyr Gibbs. Gibbs is an exciting prospect and will likely take over the D’Andre Swift role within the offense. It’s a role that will provide a ton of upside, especially in PPR formats. However, he’s unlikely to become a true workhorse back due to his smaller frame, and it’ll likely be David Montgomery who gets the goal-line carries in this offense. It’s a role that allowed Jamaal Williams to lead the league in rushing TDs with 17.
Montgomery should see enough touches and TD upside to be trusted as a low-end RB2 most weeks, and he carries RB1 upside if Gibbs were ever to miss time. Tony Pollard was my favorite RB to target in this range last year and Montgomery offers a similar floor/ceiling combo. That is why I am targeting Montgomery heavily right now.
James Conner has missed 2+ games due to injury in each of his six seasons as a pro. He carries more injury risk than other backs in this range, and at 28 he’s in the decline phase of his career. However, he offers the highest weekly floor (when healthy) of all the backs in this range. That’s why he’s worth targeting at ADP.
Rachaad White, J.K. Dobbins, and Cam Akers are the textbook definition of “frozen pond” backs from this Tier. There are plenty of reasons to like each of these backs’ 2023 outlook, but there are red flags in terms of job security, injury risk and their teams’ offenses preventing these backs from returning value at their current ADP.
Takeaway: Fade Dalvin Cook at his current ADP. Smash the draft button on David Montgomery at ADP. Target James Conner at ADP.
Tier 7
D’Andre Swift
James Cook
Isiah Pacheco
A.J. Dillon
Alvin Kamara
We have reached the very end of the “frozen pond,” and while the ice is much less stable here, it’s very shallow. So even if we fall in, it probably won’t kill us. In fact, the reason why the ice is much thinner is because it happens to sit atop a hot springs. So while it’s making it much more likely we fall in, there’s also a chance the water ends up being pleasantly warm and we decide to stay in at that point as we just hit the jackpot. That’s essentially how I would describe this Tier, as we have a handful of backs who I would consider to be high risk/high reward.
D’Andre Swift may end up being the lead back in one of the most potent rushing attacks in the league. But he’s more of a pass-catching specialist who will be playing alongside a QB who is more likely to pull it down and run, as opposed to check down to his RB.
James Cook seems likely to be the Bills‘ Week 1 starter following the departure of Devin Singletary. However, his smaller frame makes him unlikely to ever be a true workhorse back. Damien Harris/Latavius Murray could end up inheriting most of the early down work left behind by Singletary.
Isiah Pacheco ran away with the Chiefs‘ starting job toward the end of his rookie season. He could end up becoming a legit RB2 fantasy option if he can maintain the starting job, but he’s unlikely to steal any of the passing down work away from Jerick McKinnon or Clyde Edwards-Helaire, a role that is a valuable one on the Chiefs. Plus, there is a non-zero chance Edwards-Helaire finally breaks out in year 4 and reclaims the starting role in this offense.
A.J. Dillon still remains one of the top backups in the league. But the Packers‘ offense will likely take a step back this season going from Aaron Rodgers to Jordan Love. Dillon tends to offer more value in more run-heavy, leading game scripts, which may be tougher to come by for the Packers in 2023.
Alvin Kamara still has a possible suspension looming over his 2023 outlook. However, the closer we get to Week 1, the less likely it appears the league will hand one down. He could end up being a no-brainer pick at his current ADP. However, the Saints added some significant competition for Kamara in Jamaal Williams and Kendre Miller. Even if Kamara ends up playing all 17 games this season, he could end up topping out at RB3/Flex value due to being in a 2-3 way committee.
Takeaway: This is the “Frozen Pond” Tier that sits atop a hot springs. All backs are high risk/reward.
Tier 8
Antonio Gibson
Khalil Herbert
Brian Robinson Jr.
Samaje Perine
Khalil Herbert is my favorite “bet on talent” of all the RBs this season. Despite David Montgomery’s departure, Herbert finds himself in a murky three-way RBBC heading into training camp. The Bears decided to add a veteran early-down back in D’Onta Foreman and fourth-round rookie Roschon Johnson, who was Bijan Robinson’s backup at Texas but capable of becoming an NFL starter.
Either one of the new additions could run away with the starting role this season. However, Herbert already has two seasons playing in the Bears’ offense alongside Justin Fields. He is the perfect back for their scheme and is incredibly efficient as a runner. NextGenStats tracks how many yards a running back gets over expected (based on the tracking data of where blockers/defenders are on the field) and Herbert led the league with a 1.29 RYOE per attempt.
He also stepped up when Montgomery was out of the lineup. In the past two seasons, Herbert has made five spot starts for Montgomery, and in those five games he’s averaged 12 points per game in 0.5-PPR scoring leagues. That would have been good for RB18 in points per game last season.
For a back who you can get outside of the top 35, a range where backs typically need an injury to a teammate in order to become a league winner, Herbert has the talent to become a league winner, even without needing a teammate to go down.
A lot of Samaje Perine’s appeal the past few weeks has been due to the chance of him getting a couple of starts early in the season if Javonte Williams isn’t ready to suit up by Week 1. However, there were rumors that if Williams isn’t going to be ready for Week 1, the Broncos would likely add a veteran back, which would obviously lower Perine’s stock considerably. Now it’s looking likely that Williams will be ready to go for Week 1, which also lowers Perine’s stock.
I would be careful getting too excited about Perine in this range, because it seems like all paths lead to his stock only going down heading into draft season.
Takeaway: Target Khalil Herbert at ADP.
Once you get to this point of the RB position, you are typically getting into the No. 2 or 3 backs on the depth chart. This means that a lot of their potential value depends on the health of their team’s starter, which is a factor that is totally out of their control. That’s why I tend to put these RBs into specific labels/groups as opposed to just a raw rank/projection.
I typically like to draft backs in this range who can do one of either 2 things: 1) provide potential RB3/Flex value even when their team’s starter is healthy 2) provide RB2+ upside if their starter were ever to miss time.
Often times, if a RB already ticks the first box, they will also tick the second. These are the best types of RBs to target and start filling your bench out with, and it’s important to know exactly who they are. I ranked the various “groups” of backs in order of potential value they provide on your bench, and I will also be updating my RB Upside Ratings chart that does a better job of illustrating which backup RBs provide the most expected value based on ADP. Look for that to come out over the next couple of weeks.
Tier 9
Zach Charbonnet
Damien Harris
Devin Singletary
Tyler Allgeier
Jamaal Williams
Jaylen Warren
Elijah Mitchell
Tank Bigsby
These are all backs who are either the strict backup or the tail-end of a RBBC, but their role should be big enough to potentially offer RB3/Flex value at times, even when the starter is healthy. They also carry RB2+ upside in the event the starter were to miss time. These are the most valuable type of backups because they can provide you with value, even in the event their team’s starting RB were to play all 17 games this season, but they also carry a ton of injury upside.
Takeaway: Target these backs in the middle rounds as they offer the ideal floor/ceiling combo to start filling out your bench with. It’s hard to say exactly which backs to target because their end of season value depends solely on how many games their team’s starter ends up missing this season.
Tier 10
Jerick McKinnon
Devon Achane
Rashaad Penny
Chuba Hubbard
Raheem Mostert
Michael Carter
The top 3 backs in this Tier should be drafted alongside most of the backs in Tier 1. Jerick McKinnon offers a very high weekly floor given his third-down role. He’s someone I would target in PPR if you want to have a steady RB on your bench who can give you a handful of points in any given week.
Devon Achane and Rashaad Penny could end up becoming their teams’ lead back without needing an injury to anyone on their teams’ depth charts. There is still a chance the Dolphins bring in a veteran back like a Dalvin Cook, which adds some risk taking Achane at ADP. However, with recent news that Cook could be signing with the Jets soon, the time to invest in Achane is right now. His ADP will likely shoot up if Cook signs with any non-Dolphins team.
Penny is as injury prone as they come, but when he is healthy, should be able to provide plenty of spiked weeks in this Eagles offense.
Takeaway: Target Jerick McKinnon in PPR formats or leagues that start a higher number of players and/or require more bench depth. Target Devon Achane and Rashaad Penny at ADP.
Tier 11
Kareem Hunt
Ezekiel Elliott
Leonard Fournette
All three of these backs are veterans who have yet to sign with a team. I often find these types of backs are overlooked, simply because they aren’t on a team yet. It makes it tricky to project at the moment, but it’s likely they sign with a team that gives them the best path for touches.
With training camp underway and preseason games starting next week, we unfortunately see players start to pick up injuries. If a team were to have a key RB go down, the agents for all three of these backs would likely get a call.
There is a real chance 1-3 of these backs will see their ADP shoot up before the start of the season. Therefore, I think it’s worth taking a flier on these guys in spots if they do end up falling outside of the top 50.
Takeaway: Take shots on these guys if they fall outside of the top 50.
Tier 12
D’Onta Foreman
Gus Edwards
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Roschon Johnson
Jeff Wilson Jr.
Cordarrelle Patterson
Kendre Miller
Kenneth Gainwell
Ke’Shawn Vaughn
These are backups who have a fairly wide range of outcomes, because most of them are in a three-way RBBC where they might need two RBs on their team to miss time in order for them to provide RB3+ value, but there is also a path for them to not need an injury at all in order to become their team’s lead back.
It makes sense to take some swings on backs in this Tier later in your draft. Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Ke’Shawn Vaughn are two backs who have been trending up the past couple of weeks just given how volatile their teams’ backfield depth charts appear to be heading into the season.
Takeaway: Target Clyde Edwards-Helaire, fade Kenneth Gainwell at ADPs.
Tier 13
Tyjae Spears
Jerome Ford
Joshua Kelley
Keaontay Ingram
Malik Davis
Pierre Strong Jr.
Zamir White
Chase Brown
All of these backs are their teams’ strict backup. However, if the team’s starter were ever to miss time, they would all likely become the lead back and potentially offer RB3/Flex+ value. This makes them worthy of late-round stashes (especially instead of rostering a K and/or DEF for the next several weeks). Consider all these backups as lotto tickets/fliers.
Takeaway: Target these backs late in drafts to stash on your bench. It’s hard to say exactly which backs to target because their end-of-season value depends solely on how many games their team’s starter ends up missing this season.
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