Reds vs. Orioles Odds
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
|
+120
|
8.5
-110 / -110
|
+1.5
-176
|
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -142 |
8.5
-110 / -110
|
-1.5
+146
|
In the midst of a breakout season, Tyler Wells has emerged as one of the best pitchers in the Baltimore Orioles’ rotation. He’ll have his hands full on Tuesday night, however, against a surging — and stacked — Cincinnati Reds lineup.
The Reds have been a top prospect factory of late. It seems like everyone they bring up immediately succeeds — notably Elly De La Cruz and Matt McClain — and Cincy fans are absolutely loving it.
On Tuesday, we’ll get a good look at another top prospect in starter Andrew Abbott, who has the reputation of being a strikeout machine.
Since Baltimore’s lineup ranks in the middle of the pack lately against lefties, the Reds have a massive edge when batting. They should win this game.
Continue reading for my breakdown of the second game of Reds vs. Orioles from Camden Yards on Tuesday night.
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Cincinnati Reds
Abbott racked up 271 strikeouts over 185 innings in the Minor Leagues, and some of those skills have translated early in the bigs.
The 24-year-old southpaw owns a 1.14 ERA against a 3.39 xERA in four starts. He did not allow a run until his last start against the Rockies, an outing in which he struck out 10.
He’s had a tendency to walk batters and give up hard contact, but he should be able to keep Baltimore off balance.
Andrew Abbott's 9th and 10th Ks. pic.twitter.com/bfGgQX5N2t
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 21, 2023
The Reds lineup is the true story of this game. They have a 115 wRC+ against right-handers in June. They also have a 10.4% walk rate against a 20.3% strikeout rate. Their OPS is .813 — basically everything seems to be working for them when a righty toes the rubber.
They have seven active hitters with a .325+ xwOBA; this constitutes the majority of their batting order.
In relief, Cincy has struggled all year. In June specifically, the Reds have a 5.19 xFIP, which ranks 28th in MLB. They have just two relief arms below a 4.00 xFIP.
That said, Baltimore’s bullpen also hasn’t been up to snuff, so the battle of the bullpens could just end up being a wash.
If Abbott can make it through six innings, which he’s already done thrice in four starts, that could mitigate the potential negatives of the Reds ‘pen.
Baltimore Orioles
Wells is a good pitcher — he has a 3.22 ERA against a 3.54 xERA and has proven to be the most reliable starter on the O’s.
He only walks 5.7% of hitters, which is where much of his success stems from. However, he owns a Barrel Rate of 11.5% and an Average Exit Velocity of 89 mph. Since the Reds have been hitting so well lately, they have the potential to expose Wells.
On offense, Baltimore has been about average against lefties in June with a 96 wRC+ and 6.9% walk rate. The O’s also strike out at 26.9% clip against southpaws, another plus for Abbott in this matchup.
Essentially, Baltimore will not be able to take advantage of Abbott’s fatal flaws. Since Baltimore ranks in the middle of the league in Exit Velocity, Abbott should perform better than Wells.
The O’s bullpen has a 4.24 xFIP in June — better than the Reds — but given the mismatches Abbott causes, Baltimore may not have as much of an edge. The Orioles have four arms below a 4.00 xFIP in June, so they have some options after Wells.
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Reds vs. Orioles Betting Pick
As strong as the Orioles bullpen has been this year, they have taken a step back lately. The Reds are weak in this area, but Abbott puts forth a tough matchup for Baltimore’s middling lineup.
Since Baltimore has not shown much against lefties, Abbott should throw at least five strong innings. The Reds should also push across a few runs early.
Take Cincy at +120, and play them to -115. They should be favored.
Pick: Reds ML (+120 | Play Down to -115) |
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