Heat vs. Bucks Odds, Pick | NBA Betting Prediction (Sunday, April 16)

Heat vs. Bucks Odds

With the Heat limping into the NBA postseason, it’s no surprise to see them as +350 underdogs at FanDuel in Game 1 of their first round series against the Bucks.

But is that line mispriced?

Typically, these lines are at equilibrium, with plenty of casual fans and sharp bettors alike hammering both sides of the spread, moneyline and total.

For this Sunday afternoon game, our algorithms indicate slight value on the spread and moneyline.

Our models consider every data point for every NBA game, including matchups, form, rest, stylistic differences, lingering injuries, history and more. The algorithms also consider more qualitative data in assessing value for every game.

The algos then produce a single, fair-value line for each associated mainline.

Heat vs. Bucks NBA Odds, Prediction

The Action Network’s proprietary betting algorithms indicate the Heat should be only +7.4 underdogs tonight.

That’s relative to a market-wide price of about +9.5.

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At a market-best price of Heat +9.5 (-112) at FanDuel, the models assign that pick a roughly 4.3% betting edge.

That means you’ll receive a 4.3% discount from the fair-value price by betting on the Heat at +9.5.

Another way to think about it: you’re accumulating 4.3% of positive expected value the second after you make that pick, according to our models.

Do keep in mind that our algorithms work best when you use the same unit sizing for as many games as possible, over a long sample size.

PRO Pick: Heat +9.5

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