Red Wings vs Lightning Odds, Pick | NHL Betting Prediction (Thursday, April 13)

Detroit Red Wings vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Odds

The Red Wings and Lightning face off in a Thursday night matchup that has zero bearing on the standings.

Tampa Bay has already locked up the Maple Leafs in the first round of the NHL playoffs.

Meanwhile, the Red Wings have been mired in mediocrity during a season in which there had been mild faith. Detroit was set up in playoff position, but sputtered out down the stretch.

For games like this, a casual bettor may be under the impression that there’s no edge available. Motivations are unknown, efforts are unclear and lineup changes are a distinct possibility, even mid-game.

But the Action Network’s proprietary betting algorithms indicate clear value on one side of the moneyline. The proprietary models incorporate qualitative factors like rest, motivation and more that would ordinarily impact a game with as limited magnitude as tonight.

In fact, it’s games like these that may reflect the most value because the market isn’t at equilibrium.

In addition to our proprietary models, one of our premier NHL experts is also tailing this side of the moneyline. So are sharp and big moneyed bettors across the landscape, according to our tracking data.

Red Wings vs. Lightning NHL Odds, Prediction

The Action Network’s proprietary betting algorithms indicate the Red Wings should be only +142 underdogs tonight, considering quantitative and qualitative factors.

The sharp, big moneyed and expert bettors across the marketplace are all bullish on this particular line, too. Our premier NHL expert, Nick Martin, has been up about $20,000 in purely hockey wagers for $100 per game bettors. Of course, toggle that up and down depending on your unit sizing. A $500 per game bettor that’s tailed Martin on hockey would be up $100,000 in five seasons.

And Martin is rolling with the Red Wings tonight, although he got some closing line value on a +230 line.

At a now market-best price of Red Wings +205 at Caesars, the models assign that pick a roughly 8.5% betting edge.

That means you’ll receive a 8.5% discount from the fair-value price by betting on the Red Wings +205.

Another way to think about it: you’re accumulating 8.5% of positive expected value the second you make that pick, according to our models.

Do keep in mind that our algorithms and expert picks work best when you use the same unit sizing for as many games as possible, over a long sample size.

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