Karl Williams vs. Chase Sherman Odds
(Note: Prior to the start of UFC 287, UFC officials announced the cancellation of the Karl Williams vs. Chase Sherman preliminary-card bout due to an undisclosed medical issue for Sherman.)
The big men will rock the cage during the UFC 287 preliminary card on Saturday when Chase Sherman takes on late replacement Karl Williams.
William notched a UFC win less than a month ago, and he now makes a quick turnaround to take on Sherman, who’s on a 1-5 skid but still a knockout threat as long as he’s swinging leather.
Let’s break down the heavyweight bout.
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Tale of the Tape
| Williams | Sherman | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 8-1 | 16-11 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 15:00 | 10:23 |
| Height | 6’3″ | 6’4″ |
| Weight (pounds) | 235 lbs. | 250 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 79″ | 78″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 1/6/1990 | 11/16/1989 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 2.07 | 6.30 |
| SS Accuracy | 61% | 46% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 0.90 | 6.85 |
| SS Defense | 53% | 51% |
| Take Down Avg | 5.50 | 0.10 |
| TD Acc | 68% | 50% |
| TD Def | 100% | 66% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Along with Ignacio Bahamondes, Williams is the other big favorite I see slight value in betting for Saturday. However, I’m not typically inclined to lay -400 on a heavyweight MMA bout.
Williams has shown a -400 skillset, with dominant grappling efforts on the Contender Series against standout college wrestler Jimmy Lawson and his UFC debut against Lukasz Brzeski. Williams prioritizes control over damage, and he prefers to blanket opponents rather than pursue a finish. Despite more than 10 minutes of control time in his past two fights, Williams attempted just 36 ground strikes (1.8 per minute) and landed only 24 (1.2 per minute).
Williams carries power at a distance, but Sherman should be the more technical man in an extended striking battle.
However, Sherman has porous takedown defense (66% career) and worse defensive grappling, which is probably the reason why Williams was willing to take the fight on short notice after defeating Brzeski on the March 25 UFC card. Williams has the rare distinction of competing on back-to-back UFC cards.
If Sherman can extend the fight and last beyond the first round, he may have a chance to rally. Williams has shown the ability to grind against opponents for 15 minutes, but he also gets extremely winded at various points throughout his bouts, leading to potential opportunities for his opponents to close the show.
Even though he doesn’t relentlessly pursue finishes, Williams still tires himself out with poor fight IQ decisions (example: picking up and slamming an opponent at the end of a round he has already won). Williams is still young in his MMA career (nine pro fights), so perhaps he will lean to manage his gas tank better – or attempt to finish opponents more quickly.
Williams vs. Sherman Pick
You can use Williams as a parlay piece up to -420 (projected -422), but I would need at least -375 or better to consider playing him in a straight wager.
And I don’t see value concerning any props or totals for this fight.
The Pick: Use Karl Williams as a parlay piece (to -420)
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