Arkansas vs. UConn Odds
| Arkansas Odds | +3.5 |
| UConn Odds | -3.5 |
| Over/Under | 139.5 |
| Date | Thursday, March 23 |
| Time | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| How to Watch | CBS |
| Odds via FanDuel as of Thursday | |
The world seems to be betting UConn in droves after the Huskies dominated the first two rounds of 2023 March Madness.
But is it a farce? Will the tides of March disregard all semblance of momentum from everyone’s favorite sleeper team to win the NCAA Tournament?
According to the Action Network’s historical data, there’s an edge on the spread for this matchup between Arkansas and UConn on Thursday night.
The betting system has generated data since 2005 — when Mario’s “Let Me Love You” topped the charts.
Since then, this system has won 57% of the time and has returned 10 cents for every dollar wagered — a 10% ROI over a very lengthy sample size.
Does it fade the experts — including our own — and their sensibilities regarding UConn? Or does the betting system corroborate their analyses?
Arkansas vs. UConn College Basketball Odds, Prediction
Action Network’s proprietary betting system utilizes three factors to select games and spreads that fit the parameters of the long-standing system.
- The spread for the team in question needs to be +1 to +11.
- The team’s seed needs to be No. 7 or lower.
- The team’s pace needs to be 72.2 or lower, meaning the team averages about 72.2 possessions per game or fewer.
The game also needs to take place in the NCAA Tournament in order to fulfill the betting system.
Teams with a pace of 72.2 or lower are in the roughly bottom three quartiles of pace across the college basketball landscape.
The idea is that these type of teams will slow down possessions, where then variance can take its course. Under these circumstances, worse teams are more profitable.
As aforementioned, these sorts of teams win 57% of the time, historically, with a 10% ROI.
The team to bet on for the Sweet 16? Arkansas at a market-best rate of +4 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook.
Do keep in mind that this betting system works best when you use the same unit sizing for as many games as possible that fit the system, over a long sample size.
Pick: Arkansas +4 (-110)
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