Michigan State vs. Kansas State Odds
| Michigan State Odds | -1.5 |
| Kansas State Odds | +1.5 |
| Over/Under | 137.5 |
| Date | Thursday, March 23 |
| Time | 6:30 p.m. ET |
| How to Watch | TBS |
| Odds via FanDuel as of Thursday | |
The Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament is on, and the first game on the docket will be live from Madison Square Garden on Thursday night.
My colleague Darren Rovell wrote a piece earlier today highlighting his opinion that the market is mispricing Kansas State’s moneyline by leaning too heavily on recency bias and overestimating Michigan State’s abilities.
For massive games like the ones in the Sweet 16, the market is typically at equilibrium, with millions of bettors making trades across all sportsbooks around the world.
But Action Network’s proprietary betting models do think there’s a betting edge for this contest.
Does it fade Rovell? Or is he right?
Our betting algorithms consider dozens of data points for every college basketball game, integrating stylistic differences, injuries, rest, coaching, form and more. The algorithms integrate qualitative factors, too.
Those betting models then generate a fair value price for every mainline for every NCAA Tournament game.
For Michigan State vs. Kansas State, one line differs substantially from the market available price.
Michigan State vs. Kansas State College Basketball Odds, Prediction
Action Network’s proprietary betting algorithms indicate value on the Kansas State spread on Thursday night.
Our models think Kansas State should be -3 on the spread. Meanwhile, the best price on the market is with PointsBet at Kansas State +1.5 (-110).
That pick has a roughly 10% of betting edge — easily the best pick on the NCAA Tournament docket on Thursday.
That means you’ll receive a 10% discount from the fair-value price by betting on Kansas State +1.5.
Another way to think about it: you’re accumulating 10% of positive expected value the second after you make that pick, according to our models.
Do keep in mind that our algorithms work best when you use the same unit sizing for as many games as possible over a long sample size.
Pick: Kansas State +1.5 (-110)