Shannon Ross vs. Kleydson Rodrigues Odds
Two flyweights in search of their first UFC win clash on the UFC 284 preliminary card with Shannon Ross vs. Kleydson Rodrigues.
Rodrigues is a heavy favorite in this matchup against a fellow Contender Series alum.
But is he the right side? Let’s look at the matchup.
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Tale of the Tape
| Ross | Rodrigues | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 13-6 | 7-2 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 9:22 | 15:00 |
| Height | 5’6″ | 5’5″ |
| Weight (pounds) | 125 lbs. | 125 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 66″ | 67″ |
| Stance | Switch | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 5/12/1989 | 10/22/1995 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 7.15 | 5.73 |
| SS Accuracy | 38% | 61% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 8.43 | 3.07 |
| SS Defense | 54% | 48% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| TD Acc | 0% | 25% |
| TD Def | 100% | 66% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 1.0 |
I’m surprised the market isn’t more optimistic about this flyweight tilt ending inside the distance.
I set the line at 58% (-136), and the market is between -140 and -150. Still, Ross has extremely questionable durability – getting knocked down five times in his past three fights alone – but he’s also willing to die on his sword, biting down on the mouthpiece and forcing exchanges in the pocket.
Rodrigues is an imposing physical force who dropped his UFC debut as a -400 favorite but is getting similar respect for his sophomore effort.
I’m still uncertain where I fall on Rodrigues’ ceiling as a fighter. He’s relatively inexperienced, but 27 isn’t necessarily young for flyweight.
And these dramatic moneyline prices may not be justifiable in the long run.
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Ross vs. Rodrigues Pick
While I don’t necessarily project actionable value on this fight from any perspective, the pace should be incredibly hot.
I’m willing to bet on Rodrigues inside the distance (projected +118, listed +125 at BetMGM) at a small edge for small stakes.
And I would consider betting the fight to end inside the distance (projected -136, listed -135 at BetMGM) as an alternative.
The Pick: Kleydson Rodrigues wins Inside the Distance (+125, 0.25u at BetMGM)
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