Gilbert Burns vs. Neil Magny Odds
Two welterweight contenders clash on UFC 283’s main card with the Gilbert Burns vs. Neil Magny matchup.
Burns, a former title challenger, looks to rebound from a competitive 2022 loss to Khamzat Chimaev when he meets Magny, the UFC’s all-time wins leader at 170 pounds.
Is Burns a rightful heavy favorite, or is Magny a live ‘dog?
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Tale of the Tape
| Burns | Magny | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 20-5 | 27-10 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 11:40 | 12:48 |
| Height | 5’10” | 6’3″ |
| Weight (pounds) | 170 lbs. | 170 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 71″ | 80″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 7/20/1986 | 8/3/1987 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.46 | 3.62 |
| SS Accuracy | 48% | 46% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.21 | 2.27 |
| SS Defense | 54% | 54% |
| Take Down Avg | 2.00 | 2.43 |
| TD Acc | 34% | 42% |
| TD Def | 47% | 57% |
| Submission Avg | 0.6 | 0.3 |
Despite standing four inches shorter, Burns has all the tools to completely dismantle Magny, despite a nine-inch reach discrepancy between the pair.
Magny struggles against offensive grapplers and leg kickers – and Burns does both of those things exceptionally well.
Burns should have a clear power advantage in the matchup too. Magny can likely jab him up from range on the feet, but if Burns enters the pocket and continually hammers that lead leg, he could turn Magny into a sitting duck for some left hooks and overhands rights.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=24B6AEow9oY
Still, Burns – a world champion grappler – should look to wrestle proactively. Magny wins fights by jabbing up opponents and mixing in takedowns, but he’ll only be able to do one of those things against Burns, an extremely dangerous submission grappler.
And Magny’s long limbs often prove a detriment on the ground since opponents have more surface area to control him – or hunt for submissions.
Burns should land significantly more damage throughout the fight, given the power discrepancy, and it’s difficult to envision a path to victory for Magny unless Burns’ cardio ultimately falls off a cliff since Magny’s cardio is potentially his greatest attribute.
Burns vs. Magny Pick
If you’re looking to bet on Magny, wait until after Round 1 to bet him live; Burns should win the first round at a very high percentage.
I see value in Burns’ moneyline (projected -550) and on both his KO/TKO (projected +294) and submission (projected +238) props. Furthermore, I see value in his odds of winning inside the distance (projected -121, listed +100 at BetMGM).
I’ll play the finish prop and use Burns as a key parlay piece.
The Pick: Gilbert Burns wins by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission (+100 at BetMGM, 0.5u)
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