Chargers vs. Jaguars Odds, Prediction
| Chargers Odds | -2.5 |
| Jaguars Odds | +2.5 |
| Over/Under | 47.5 |
| Date | Saturday, Jan. 14 |
| Time | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| Channel | NBC |
*Odds via FanDuel as of Saturday morning
The Action Network has developed an elite betting algorithm that targets the NFL Wild Card Round and has fit every game in that round since 2005.
Amazingly, this algorithm has won 69% of the time — and again, it fits every single wild card contest. Major hat tip to my colleague Brandon Anderson for developing this system.
The proprietary algorithm has gone 53-24-3 (69% win rate) against the spread over the last 16 seasons and targets only the closing line.
A $500 per game bettor would be up $12,000 overall. That’s a 30% annualized return on investment.
We don’t recommend using this betting algorithm as an alternative to investing — variance is a much sturdier constraint in sports gambling compared to the financial markets — but similar principles apply in regard to gains over a long time horizon.
Chargers vs. Jaguars: The 69% Accurate Algorithm Pick for Saturday
This betting algorithm has a list of parameters it targets when selecting a line. Elementally, it targets teams with pedigree and fades teams without it.
Here’s the thesis, courtesy of Brandon Anderson:
“Teams who made last year’s playoffs, then earned a home game by winning the division this year, have proven they are consistently good and worth backing. They’ve been here before, have experience and pedigree, and proven their quality.
By contrast, teams hosting in this year’s Wild Card Round who didn’t make last year’s postseason might have overachieved, or caught some lucky breaks. History says to fade such teams.”
Simple enough.
“Makes sense to me that if you made the playoffs last year and then won enough games in the regular season to earn a home game this round again that you must be a pretty good team, but if you are the Jaguars and got the home game this year but didn’t make the playoffs last year, that might be a dead giveaway that you are a lucky team that won a bad division or caught some bounces this year,” Anderson said.
The Vikings certainly fit that bill.
“It’s kind of showing how the unexpected “good” teams might not be that great.”
Of course, the system also says to fade the Vikings on Sunday afternoon. The Giants’ spread is at +3 as of Saturday afternoon.
PRO Pick: Jaguars +2.5 (-114) or better