Alabama vs. Kansas State Odds & Picks
| Alabama Odds | -7 |
| Kansas State Odds | +7 |
| Over/Under | 56 |
| Date | Saturday, Dec. 31 |
| Time | 12 p.m. ET |
| Channel | ESPN |
*Odds as of Saturday morning
College football fans and bettors are used to seeing Alabama play on New Year’s Eve, but this year is a little different.
The Crimson Tide take on the Kansas State State Wildcats in the 2022 Sugar Bowl instead of a College Football Playoff semifinal, which has been the norm for Nick Saban’s program.
As a result, motivation could be a factor for a team that always expects to be in the national championship picture, but isn’t this year, especially as a favorite.
To ensure we’re not going too far down the narrative rabbit hole to make our college football picks, let’s rely on data, and data alone.
To do this, I looked at the Action Network’s College Football PRO Projections, which are showing valuable betting opportunities on both the spread and total for Alabama vs. Kansas State in Saturday’s Sugar Bowl.
Alabama vs. Kansas State Predictions
Let’s start with the Alabama vs. Kansas State spread.
The Wildcats are 7-point underdogs against the Crimson Tide based on the latest college football odds, but that line appears to be a bit too long.
Our college football betting model projects this spread at Kansas State +4.3, resulting in a 6.1% edge when compared to the widely-available +7.
But we’re not done yet.
Bettors can also lock in a 5.1% edge by taking a position on the Sugar Bowl over as well.
While sitting at 56 across the market, our model projects this total at nearly 60 — 59.6 to be exact — suggesting that there’s plenty of value in betting on higher-scoring game on Saturday afternoon.
PRO Report Picks: Kansas State +7 | Over 56