Dolphins vs. Bills Odds, Prediction: The Egregiously Elite Betting System for Spread (Saturday, Dec. 17)

Dolphins vs. Bills Odds, Prediction

*Odds via FanDuel as of Saturday morning

There is an egregiously elite betting system that lights up for just 10 NFL games per season and does so for the spread for Dolphins vs. Bills on Saturday night.

The algorithm has gone 72-46-4 (61%) since 2010. That’s about 120 NFL games over a very lengthy sample size. $500 per game bettors would have netted about $10,000 during that time frame.

That’s an annualized 18% return on investment (ROI) over a very lengthy timeframe. Hat tip to my colleague Brandon Anderson for developing this betting algorithm.

Some of the algorithm’s factors include time of season, previous game margin, off days and whether the contest is a divisional matchup.

An offshoot betting system to the one aforementioned has a smaller sample size, but the win rate increases to 64% and the ROI increases to 23% under those parameters.

We don’t recommend using these algorithms as an alternative to investing — variance is much less forgiving in sports gambling compared to the financial markets — but similar principles apply in regard to profits over a long time horizon.

Dolphins vs. Bills Egregiously Elite Betting System 

The betting system targets certain teams in particular.

These clubs have to be on short rest that are coming off of a solid win against their previous opponent.

The prior game also needs to have been a divisional contest.

“Solid win” indicates a win of at least four points against their previous opponent.

And “short rest” indicates four to six days between games.

The Bills fit all criteria of this betting algorithm. They beat the Jets last Sunday 20-12 — in a game that looked closer on paper than it actually was — and will have six days between games.

Teams of these sort have covered the spread 61% of the time since 2010 and returned an ROI of 18%. They’re riding the momentum from a big divisional win into their following contest, in which their opponent is also playing on short rest.

The ancillary betting system adds one wrinkle: The team’s previous game needs to have been a divisional contest, but the game in question needs to be, too.

Under those parameters, teams win an aforementioned 64% of the time, with an ROI increased to 23%. This system has only applied to 40 NFL games since 2010, though, compared to 120 in the main algorithm.

Pick: Bills -7

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