The Action Network’s proprietary betting algorithms have indicated value on three 1 p.m. ET spreads for Sunday Week 12.
The three games? Buccaneers vs. Browns, Ravens vs. Jaguars and Bengals vs. Titans.
The betting models assign value based on injuries, matchups, rest, rotations, travel and every other variable associated with NFL games.
Our proprietary tracking data also indicates sharp action on each of these spreads, too.
That means wise guys are betting heavy — and fading the public — in picking a side for Sunday.
Sports betting’s main short-term constraint, though, is variance. You’ll lose some bets along the way — and often many in a row. So make sure you’re using the same unit sizing every time you tail smart money.
Week 12 NFL Predictions
For Bucs vs. Browns, the smart money is fading the public on Tom Brady, who the retail bettors always love. Tampa has gone 1-7 ATS over the last eight games, with the market consistently overrating the team on the backs of Brady’s pedigree.
So, with the hook at +3.5, the wise guys are all over the Browns. Cleveland has a market-best vig of -115 at PointsBet at that clip.
The Jaguars with a similar hook, meanwhile, are the smart money pick at home against the Ravens. The best price on the market is with FanDuel at +3.5 (-105).
Pick: Jaguars ATS |
Meanwhile, the Bengals to cover as road favorites is the wise guy move. While only 39% of the individual bets are on this game, about 74% of the money is.
That 35% discrepancy indicates that a trove of big-moneyed bettors are dropping money on the Bengals to cover. That’s corroborated by our proprietary tracking data, which indicates several big bets on Cincy to cover.
The best market price is on FanDuel at -2.5 (-110).
Pick: Bengals ATS |
PRO Report Picks: Browns +3.5 (-115) or better | Jaguars +3.5 (-105) or better | Bengals -2.5 (-110) or better