Bears vs. Jets at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday fits a historically profitable betting algorithm developed by the Action Network.
The algorithm has gone 243-150-10 (62%) since 2005. That’s over 400 NFL games over a very lengthy sample size. $100 per game bettors would have netted about $8,500 over that time frame.
That’s an annualized 21% ROI over a very lengthy timeframe.
Under specific parameters proprietary to the Action Network, certain types of teams under certain types of scenarios have done fantastic against the spread (ATS) over a long sample size. The algorithm aligns with all facets of Bears vs. Jets.
Some of the algorithm’s factors include time of season, how low a total is, spread range and how the opposing team did last season.
We don’t recommend using this betting algorithm as an alternative to investing — variance is much less forgiving in sports gambling compared to the financial markets — but similar principles apply in regard to profits over a long time horizon.
Bears vs. Jets Inefficient Line Prediction
The betting system targets bets on small road underdogs that were horrible last season. A total of 50 or lower is required.
The game needs to be played on Sunday or Monday in order to eliminate Thursday Night Football, which has more variance due to the short rest time.
“Horrible last season” means six wins or fewer. “Small road underdog” indicates the team’s spread is between +0.5 and +6.5.
All of those parameters fit the road team — the Bears — on Sunday.
Their best market price is with PointsBet at Chicago +6 (-107).
Do keep in mind that this historically profitable algorithm applies to about 25 NFL games per year. This might be an opportunity to cash in, but keep in mind that this is a long-term investment.
The best way to make money through this algorithm is to bet on every game that fits these parameters for the rest of the year.
We’ll continue to write about them.
PRO Pick: Bears +6 (-107) or better