The total for Browns vs. Bills has jutted and jived in eighty different directions since last week on account of a simple venue change.
But the number the market decided was equilibrium a few hours before kickoff is still inefficient.
That’s according to the Action Network’s proprietary betting models, which assign value based on injuries, matchups, rest, rotations, travel and every other variable associated with NFL games.
For Browns vs. Bills, the pick on the total has roughly 5% in value. Effectively, you’ll be receiving a 5% discount on what the fair value price is for this line.
Over the long run, if you only bet on lines with at least a 5% betting edge, you’re all but assured to make a profit. In the short term, of course, variance is a constraint.
Browns vs. Bills NFL Algorithm Prediction
This line opened at roughly 47 before deteriorating to about 42.5 amid news that Western New York was going to be hit by a torrential blizzard later that week.
By Tuesday, that line fell below the key number of 42 to roughly 41.5. Sharp and big moneyed bettors in the know were all over that line on account of the weather.
Then, the game got moved to Detroit, under a roof and in moderate climate.
Most original bets were voided, depending on the sportsbook you wagered with. The new line re-opened at its original mark of 47.
And since then, the line has ballooned to 50.5 because of the temperate weather conditions. The retail bettors pounced at the chance to take an over on Josh Allen at a total below 50.
However, the Action Network’s proprietary betting algorithms think the public went too far. The fair value line should be closer to 48.5, according to our models.
So, at a market-best price of u50.5 (-107) at PointsBet, the under has roughly 5% in betting edge.
Another way to think of betting edge — a 5% discount means you can expect to make $5 for every $100 wagered in the long run on similarly mispriced lines.
PRO Pick: Under 50.5 (-107) or better
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