Week 11 Fantasy Rankings & Tiers
Fantasy QB Rankings & Tiers
Tier 1
Patrick Mahomes (@ LAC)
Josh Allen (vs. CLE)
Tier 2
Jalen Hurts (@ IND)
Lamar Jackson (vs. CAR)
Justin Fields (@ ATL)
Tier 3
Dak Prescott (@ MIN)
Tier 4
Joe Burrow (@ PIT)
Daniel Jones (vs. DET)
Justin Herbert (vs. KC)
Tier 5
Kirk Cousins (vs. DAL)
Russell Wilson (vs. LV)
Tier 6
Marcus Mariota (vs. CHI)
Aaron Rodgers (vs. TEN)
Jimmy Garoppolo (@ ARI)
Taylor Heinicke (@ HOU)
Kyler Murray (vs. SF)
Tier 7
Zach Wilson (@ NE)
Davis Mills (vs. WAS)
Jacoby Brissett (@ BUF)
Ryan Tannehill (@ GB)
Tier 8
Matthew Stafford (@ NO)
Matt Ryan (vs. PHI)
Baker Mayfield (@ BAL)
Justin Herbert will be back in the QB1 discussion if Keenan Allen and/or Mike Williams return this week. Right now, both WRs are tentatively expected to return to action for what could be a potential shootout against the Chiefs.
We are on Desmond Ridder watch in Atlanta. Marcus Mariota could be benched in-game for the rookie QB at any given moment going forward. However, I don’t think it’ll be this weekend, when the Falcons are 3-point home favorites. I’m cautiously optimistic of a high-end QB2 performance from Mariota this week, but I would be cautious trusting Mariota in the future when the Falcons are underdogs. It’s a chance that could breathe some life into Drake London and Kyle Pitts fantasy value if/when head coach Arthur Smith makes this move.
Kyler Murray opens the week as “day to day” with a hamstring injury that held him out in Week 10. The 49ers are currently 8-point road favorites, which suggests sportsbooks likely think Colt McCoy will get his second straight start here. I’m pencling in Murray for the start in my initial projections, but I would make plans for him missing his second straight game.
Matthew Stafford is still rostered in 57% of Yahoo! Leagues. Please do not be one of those people. He was already droppable, but now he’s really droppable with Cooper Kupp out indefinitely.
Fantasy RB Rankings & Tiers
Tier 1
Saquon Barkley (vs. DET)
Tier 2
Derrick Henry (@ GB)
Josh Jacobs (@ DEN)
Tier 3
Alvin Kamara (vs. LAR)
Christian McCaffrey (@ ARI)
Jonathan Taylor (vs. PHI)
Austin Ekeler (vs. KC)
Joe Mixon (@ PIT)
Tier 4
Dalvin Cook (vs. DAL)
David Montgomery (@ ATL)
Dameon Pierce (vs. WAS)
Rhamondre Stevenson (vs. NYJ)
Tier 5
Aaron Jones (vs. TEN)
Miles Sanders (@ IND)
Nick Chubb (@ BUF)
Tier 6
Tony Pollard (@ MIN)
Devin Singletary (vs. CLE)
James Conner (vs. SF)
Jamaal Williams (@ NYG)
Cordarrelle Patterson (vs. CHI)
Antonio Gibson (@ HOU)
Tier 7
Najee Harris (vs. CIN)
Brian Robinson Jr. (@ HOU)
Gus Edwards (vs. CAR)
D’Onta Foreman (@ BAL)
D’Andre Swift (@ NYG)
Tier 8
Isiah Pacheco (@ LAC)
Kenyan Drake (vs. CAR)
Damien Harris (vs. NYJ)
Melvin Gordon (vs. LV)
Ezekiel Elliott (@ MIN)
A.J. Dillon (vs. TEN)
Tier 9
Tyler Allgeier (vs. CHI)
Michael Carter (@ NE)
Darrell Henderson (@ NO)
Latavius Murray (vs. LV)
Kareem Hunt (@ BUF)
James Robinson (@ NE)
Jaylen Warren (vs. CIN)
Elijah Mitchell (@ ARI)
Tier 10
Jerick McKinnon (@ LAC)
Chuba Hubbard (@ BAL)
Tier 11
Cam Akers (@ NO)
Kenneth Gainwell (@ IND)
Dontrell Hilliard (@ GB)
Caleb Huntley (vs. CHI)
Kyren Williams (@ NO)
Trestan Ebner (@ ATL)
Samaje Perine (@ PIT)
James Cook (vs. CLE)
Tier 12
Ameer Abdullah (@ DEN)
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (@ LAC)
Chase Edmonds (vs. LV)
Matt Breida (vs. DET)
Rex Burkhead (vs. WAS)
Alexander Mattison (vs. DAL)
Justin Jackson (@ NYG)
Isaiah Spiller (vs. KC)
Nyheim Hines (vs. CLE)
Keaontay Ingram (vs. SF)
Jonathan Taylor is back. The 2022 season has been a huge disappointment for the consensus No. 1 overall pick, but he erupted for 22/147/1 on the ground against the Raiders last week. Interim HC Jeff Saturday opted to go back to Matt Ryan under center and have a run-heavy approach on offense. It’s great news for Taylor’s rest-of-season outlook, and the formula to beat the Eagles appears to be to attack their run funnel defense, so I’m expecting another big game from Taylor this week. Congrats if you were able to pry him away from an impatient manager recently.
David Montgomery gets a massive boost with Khalil Herbert expected to miss at least the next four games due to a hip injury. Trestan Ebner is a speedy rookie back out of Baylor that the Bears drafted in the sixth round. He could make some splash plays in Herbert’s absence but is unlikely to push Montgomery for a near-even timeshare in the same way Herbert did. I’m treating Montgomery as a high-end RB2 while Herbert is out, and as a low-end RB1 in a plus matchup this week against the Falcons.
We finally got a taste of what Tony Pollard fully unleashed looks like for a 2-game stretch where Ezekiel Elliott was held out due to an injury and how sweet it was. He erupted for rushing lines of 14/131/3 & 22/115/1, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he sees a much bigger role once Elliott returns to action, which will likely be this week. I’m treating Pollard as a mid-range RB2 option with the assumption Elliott will be limited in his first game back. Pollard would become a top-five option if Elliott is held out again, which is why he was one of my favorite high upside backup RBs heading into the season.
Najee Harris is coming off his biggest game of the season, rushing for 99 yards on 20 carries and this could be a good time to sell high on him while you can. The Steelers ran the ball a season-high 43 times last week thanks to a positive game script in their 20-10 win over the Saints. However, Jaylen Warren remained very involved and continues to eat into Najee’s usage. Najee had a 40% routes run rate to Warren’s 35%. That sort of usage will become an issue when the Steelers face a potential negative game script like they do this week against the Bengals.
So, while Harris had a great week, he’s unlikely to provide games like that consistently going forward. If you could sell him for a midrange RB2 kind of back, I would do it.
It wasn’t until Isiah Pacheco’s third start until we finally saw him break out with a solid 16/82/0 rushing game. More importantly, Clyde Edwards-Helaire didn’t see a single tough in the game, meaning his fantasy value has finally hit rock bottom. Head coach Andy Reid said that they will continue to use a RBBC and try to get Edwards-Helaire touches in the future. However, it’s clear that Pacheco is the Chiefs best option on early downs.
Pacheco has a great matchup this week against a Chargers defense that ranks 29th in DVOA against the run. Pacheco doesn’t offer much in the passing game, but he is a home run-hitting back who can score from anywhere on the field. I’m betting we see him break off a long TD run in the very near future.
Elijah Mitchell returned to game action for the first time since Week 1 and shockingly out-rushed Christian McCaffrey in rush attempts 18-14. It’s a reminder that Mitchell is still a valuable piece in this offense and might still be able to offer RB3/Flex value when McCaffrey is healthy. In matchups where the 49ers are heavy favorites, like this week against the Cardinals, Mitchell gets a boost. He’s a sneaky RB3/Flex option this week.
Kyren Williams finally made his NFL debut and as expected, made immediate contributions as a pass catcher, going for 30 yards on three receptions. With the Rams season circling down the drain and Cooper Kupp sidelined for at least the next four games, I would not be surprised if the Rams give Williams a shot at more of a workhorse back role as they begin to evaluate for the 2023 season and beyond.
Keaontay Ingram has quietly become one of the better backup RBs to stash after the Cardinals decided to release Eno Benjamin. Ingram is now a James Conner injury away from potentially offering low-end RB2 value. Considering Conner’s extensive injury history, including this season, the odds of Ingram getting a spot start or two over the final weeks seem pretty good. There’s also a chance he could carve out a Chase Edmonds-type role even if James Conner remains healthy for the remainder of the season.
I was a bit surprised when Ingram fell to the Cardinals in the sixth round since he was very good at USC and gave off Kareem Hunt vibes. He was able to flash some of his upside on Thursday Night Football against the Saints a few weeks ago and if you have the space on your bench, would be a great upside stash.
That @keaontay_ingram kid is elusive. 😯#NOvsAZ on Prime Video
Also available on NFL+ https://t.co/aKjbRcE0ca pic.twitter.com/zjHc728fks— NFL (@NFL) October 21, 2022
Fantasy WR Rankings & Tiers
Tier 1
Justin Jefferson (vs. DAL)
DeAndre Hopkins (vs. SF)
Stefon Diggs (vs. CLE)
CeeDee Lamb (@ MIN)
Davante Adams (@ DEN)
Amon-Ra St. Brown (@ NYG)
A.J. Brown (@ IND)
Tier 2
Tee Higgins (@ PIT)
Tier 3
Deebo Samuel (@ ARI)
DeVonta Smith (@ IND)
Terry McLaurin (@ HOU)
Chris Olave (vs. LAR)
Tier 4
Tyler Boyd (@ PIT)
Juju Smith-Schuster (@ LAC)
Allen Lazard (vs. TEN)
Courtland Sutton (vs. LV)
Brandon Aiyuk (@ ARI)
Garrett Wilson (@ NE)
Michael Pittman Jr. (vs. PHI)
D.J. Moore (@ BAL)
Rondale Moore (vs. SF)
Diontae Johnson (vs. CIN)
Tier 5
Curtis Samuel (@ HOU)
Gabe Davis (vs. CLE)
Jerry Jeudy (vs. LV)
Adam Thielen (vs. DAL)
Christian Watson (vs. TEN)
Jakobi Meyers (vs. NYJ)
Darius Slayton (vs. DET)
Tier 6
Josh Palmer (vs. KC)
Allen Robinson (@ NO)
Michael Gallup (@ MIN)
Nico Collins (vs. WAS)
Amari Cooper (@ BUF)
Drake London (vs. CHI)
Kadarius Toney (@ LAC)
Brandin Cooks (vs. WAS)
Darnell Mooney (@ ATL)
Tier 7
Wan’Dale Robinson (vs. DET)
Jarvis Landry (vs. LAR)
George Pickens (vs. CIN)
Mike Williams (vs. KC)
Kalif Raymond (@ NYG)
Tier 8
Robert Woods (@ GB)
Parris Campbell (vs. PHI)
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (@ LAC)
Mack Hollins (@ DEN)
Treylon Burks (@ GB)
Terrace Marshall (@ BAL)
Ben Skowronek (@ NO)
Noah Brown (@ MIN)
Donovan Peoples-Jones (@ BUF)
Keenan Allen (vs. KC)
Tier 9
Laviska Shenault (@ BAL)
Devin Duvernay (vs. CAR)
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (@ GB)
Josh Reynolds (@ NYG)
Isaiah McKenzie (vs. CLE)
Van Jefferson (@ NO)
Tier 10
DeAndre Carter (vs. KC)
K.J. Osborn (vs. DAL)
Olamide Zaccheaus (vs. CHI)
Mecole Hardman (@ LAC)
Chris Moore (vs. WAS)
Demarcus Robinson (vs. CAR)
Chase Claypool (@ ATL)
Jahan Dotson (@ HOU)
Sammy Watkins (vs. TEN)
Alec Pierce (vs. PHI)
Jauan Jennings (@ ARI)
As I mentioned in the QB section, there’s a chance Justin Herbert gets both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams back this week. The Chargers’ WR duo practiced on Wednesday. These rankings, obviously, assume they are not going to be active. When news breaks on either, check out my real-time rankings.
This week sets up for a DeVonta Smith eruption game and he opens the week inside my top-10 ranks. The Colts use zone coverage at the seventh-highest rate, and Smith feasts against zone as he leads the team with a 2.10 yards per route run against zone. Goedert is a close second with a 2.09 Y/RR so with him out for four or more games, Smith should be the pass catcher who benefits the most on a per route basis.
Rondale Moore now has at least six receptions in five of the last six games. With Zach Ertz suffering a season-ending injury, Moore could see even more targets as a result. He was able to post a 9/94/0 line with Colt McCoy under center last week, so even if Kyler Murray is unable to suit up again this week, I would still view Moore as a solid WR2 option. Marquise Brown is nearing a return and will likely push Moore down into WR3 territory once he’s able to return to his full-time role.
It’s still too early to make sit/start decisions based on weather, but all signs are pointing to heavy snow in the Browns vs. Bills game this week. I’m basing my projections on the current weather report. If that weather forecast were to hold, Gabe Davis and Amari Cooper would become dicey WR3 options who would likely be the hardest hit from inclement weather. Start preparing yourself for that decision on Sunday, and I will be updating my projections for that game as the weather forecast updates.
JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Mecole Hardman have all been missing practice and all three are questionable for Week 11. Kadarius Toney will shoot up my ranks if 1-3 of those WRs are eventually ruled out. He carries massive upside in this offense and could become a solid WR2/3 option this week based on the Chiefs final injury report.
Ben Skowronek and/or Van Jefferson could become every-week WR3/Flex options with Cooper Kupp out for at least the next four games. Skowronek is the best short-term option as he will be on the field nearly every snap this week, while Jefferson has the most long-term upside once he’s able to see a full complement of snaps. While it’s discouraging to see Jefferson’s routes run rate drop in each of his three games since he returned (64%, 52%, 35%) we could easily see Sean McVay opt to give him a 80%+ rate as soon as this week. Once he does cross that threshold, he will likely be able to provide WR3/Flex value.
Laviska Shenault is a wide receiver to keep an eye on in deeper leagues. He has seen a ridiculous 47% target per route run rate this season. While that rate is unsustainable, it just goes to show that if he sees an increase in playing time, he could potentially offer WR3/4 value. Last week, Shenault saw his routes run rate shoot up to 53% and while he only managed to post a 3/17/0 receiving line, he also cashed in with two carries for 47 yards and a TD on the ground. None of the Panthers running backs are capable of replacing CMC’s role in the passing game, and I think we see Shenault continue to fill that void since he’s really more of a RB/WR hybrid.
Fantasy TE Rankings & Tiers
Tier 1
Travis Kelce (@ LAC)
Tier 2
Mark Andrews (vs. CAR)
Tier 3
Dalton Schultz (@ MIN)
Tier 4
Kyle Pitts (vs. CHI)
T.J. Hockenson (vs. DAL)
Pat Freiermuth (vs. CIN)
George Kittle (@ ARI)
Tyler Higbee (@ NO)
Greg Dulcich (vs. LV)
Tier 5
Hayden Hurst (@ PIT)
Foster Moreau (@ DEN)
Taysom Hill (vs. LAR)
Cole Kmet (@ ATL)
Gerald Everett (vs. KC)
Tyler Conklin (@ NE)
Robert Tonyan Jr. (vs. TEN)
Tier 6
Juwan Johnson (vs. LAR)
Dawson Knox (vs. CLE)
Tier 7
Hunter Henry (vs. NYJ)
David Njoku (@ BUF)
Austin Hooper (@ GB)
Logan Thomas (@ HOU)
Jack Stoll (@ IND)
Kylen Granson (vs. PHI)
Tier 8
Jonnu Smith (vs. NYJ)
Trey McBride (vs. SF)
O.J. Howard (vs. WAS)
Isaiah Likely (vs. CAR)
Chigoziem Okonkwo (@ GB)
Lawrence Cager (vs. DET)
Jordan Akins (vs. WAS)
Dalton Schultz appeared to be fully over his PCL injury following the Cowboys’ bye week as he posted a solid 6/54/1 game while running a route on 73% of Dak Prescott’s dropbacks. It was the first time he’s topped a 70% routes run rate since Week 4. Schultz does much better against zone coverage as he’s logged a 1.84 Y/RR against zone compared to just a 0.65 yards per route run against man coverage. He faces a Vikings defense that has used zone coverage at the second-highest rate this season. Schultz opens the week as a top-three option. His rest-of-season stock has shot up considerably with Zach Ertz, Darren Waller and Dallas Goerdert expected to miss most of the remaining season, if not all of it, due to injuries.
Tyler Higbee should see an increase in targets while Kupp is out, making him more of a mid/low-end TE1 going forward. He’s coming off of a massive 8/73/0 line and we could see a monster second half from him a la his 2019 breakout season.
Greg Dulcich finally posted a dud and if we were to drop any TE after having a bad game, there wouldn’t be any TEs left not named Travis Kelce or Mark Andrews. I expect Dulcich to bounce back this week against the Raiders and still consider him as a low-end TE1 option for the rest of the season.
Hayden Hurst was dropped in a ton of leagues as he was on bye in Week 10. He should be able to post low-end TE1 value as long as Ja’Marr Chase is out of the lineup. There is a chance that Chase is able to return next week, but keep in mind that whenever he, Higgins or Tyler Boyd are expected to miss time, Hurst will likely be in the TE1 discussion.
Foster Moreau is capable of posting low-end TE1 value as long as Darren Waller remains out of the lineup. We also have to remember that Hunter Renfrow is also on IR right now, meaning Moreau carries a pretty high weekly floor for a TE who is still widely available. Instead of chasing TDs from Cole Kmet/Juwan Johnson types, I would prefer Moreau’s underlying usage as he’s much more likely to continue offering fantasy value week in and week out for the foreseeable future.
Jack Stoll will get the first crack at replacing Dallas Goedert in terms of playing time, but most of his targets will go to the RB/WR groups instead.
The Cardinals drafting the top TE prospect in the second round, in Trey McBride, when they already had Zach Ertz locked into a long term deal reminded me of when the Eagles drafted Goedert in a similar situation. In fact, McBride gave me Goedert vibes when watching his college film.
McBride is off to a bit of a slow start in his rookie season as he has a microscopic 4.4% targets per route run rate so far. Tight ends typically take awhile to adjust to the NFL so we should forgive his slow start, especially since he missed a lot of camp and preseason due to back spasms. We could see him breakout now that he’s being thrusted into Ertz’s role for the remainder of the season. He’s a must add in deeper TE-premium formats and should be able to post TE2 value the rest of the way.