Thursday Night Football’s Commanders vs. Bears matchup figures to be an absolute dud of a game, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t value to be gleaned.
Brian Robinson Jr. is the player the public is most interested in tonight. A substantial plurality of bettors are banking on the former Alabama running back to cross the goal line on Thursday night.
Just a month-and-a-half ago, Robinson Jr. was the victim of a carjacking that left him with gunshot wounds in his leg and glute. He missed only four games.
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View more NFL player prop projections, lines and odds here!
Commanders vs. Bears Most Popular NFL Player Prop Bets
- Brian Robinson to score the first touchdown of the game (+750)
- Brian Robinson to score a touchdown at any time (+180)
- Curtis Samuel over 4.5 receptions (-120)
*Odds and data are according to BetMGM as of Thursday morning.
One of our premier data gurus, Nick Giffen, assessed the value on all of these props and gave the best line to Samuel’s reception odds.
The Action Network has Samuel projected for 4.9 receptions with a 55.2% chance of going over 4.5 catches. So, -120 is a fair line, but don’t grab that line at anything higher than -125.
In regards to Robinson Jr.’s props, there’s a 9% chance for him to score the first TD (expected: +1000), so the line of +750 has no value.
His anytime TD line of +180, meanwhile, has a true value of +225.
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