We’re coming off a Week 4 that saw my rankings come in first, according to FantasyPros. I’m on my quest to bring down my fourth season-long title. I’m sixth on the season, while Chris Raybon is up in second.
It’s still surreal that I get to write about betting and fantasy for a living. I’m thankful to each and everyone of you who follow along every week during the NFL season.
Now, onto Week 5.
Fantasy Rankings & Tiers
Fantasy QB Rankings & Tiers
Tier 1
Josh Allen (vs. PIT)
Jalen Hurts (@ ARI)
Lamar Jackson (vs. CIN)
These three QBs really are the Tier 1 of the position until further notice. Their elite dual-threat makes them matchup-proof, and they carry the optimal floor/ceiling combo.
Tier 2
Patrick Mahomes (vs. LV)
Tom Brady (vs. ATL)
Brady finally has all of his weapons at his disposal and, as a result, the Buccaneers will likely start becoming a pass-heavy team again. I’m also expecting Brady to take out his frustrations from their two-game losing streak out on the Falcons this week.
Tier 3
Joe Burrow (@ BAL)
Justin Herbert (@ CLE)
Herbert has continued playing at a high level despite playing through a painful rib injury. He’s likely going to be much closer to 100% health in the coming weeks and will get a huge boost once Keenan Allen returns to the lineup and 100% health, as well.
Herbert rushed for 10+ yards in 11 games last season but has failed to rush for more than seven yards. It isn’t a huge concern, but hopefully, we see Herbert start to scramble a bit more once his rib injury is fully healed.
Tier 4
Kyler Murray (vs. PHI)
Kirk Cousins (vs. CHI)
Kyler Murray has a brutal matchup this week against an Eagles defense that ranks second in DVOA against the pass. His matchup will improve if Darius Slay (arm) and/or Avonte Maddox are unable to play through their questionable tags. Murray will be getting DeAndre Hopkins back in Week 7 and recently just had Rondale Moore return to action last week. Murray could be a fixture in Tier 2 or 3 starting Week 7.
Tier 5
Russell Wilson (vs. IND)
Trevor Lawrence (vs. HOU)
Jameis Winston (vs. SEA)
Teddy Bridgewater (@ NYJ)
Matthew Stafford (vs. DAL)
Derek Carr (@ KC)
Look for Trevor Lawrence to bounce back after a dreadful Week 4, during which he was responsible for five turnovers. A lot of that had to do with Lawrence not being able to secure the ball in the rain, losing four fumbles because of it. We may have to be careful trusting Lawrence the next time he plays in inclement weather. The weather is expected to be perfect in Jacksonville this Sunday, making him a low-end QB1 option this week.
Teddy Bridgewater is my favorite streaming option at QB this week. He’s one of the better backup QBs in the league and will take over in an offense that has turned Tua Tagovailoa into a legit QB1 option this season.
We’ve already seen a sneak preview of Bridgewater under center in this offense as he threw for 193, one touchdown and one interception in just over two quarters of action. He should be able to post high-end QB2 value with one of the best WR duos in the league at his disposal in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
Tier 6
Aaron Rodgers (vs. NYG)
Jared Goff (@ NE)
Geno Smith (@ NO)
Zach Wilson (vs. MIA)
Ryan Tannehill (@ WAS)
Jared Goff managed to post the top score at QB last week, despite missing Amon-Ra St. Brown, D.J. Chark and D’Andre Swift. This had a lot to do with the Lions defense allowing the Seahawks to score 48 points, forcing the Lions into a pass-heavy game script. The Detroit defense enters Week 5 ranked dead last in DVOA rankings.
The Lions’ dreadful defense is going to help fuel Goff with high-end QB2 value most weeks, but this week I’m treating him more as a mid-range QB2 option. The Patriots offense is unlikely to run up the score with Bailey Zappe potentially under center this week, and the New England defense has been more of a run funnel one in 2022.
Tier 7
Marcus Mariota (@ TB)
Jacoby Brissett (vs. LAC)
Carson Wentz (vs. TEN)
Jimmy Garoppolo (@ CAR)
Bailey Zappe (vs. DET)
The days of ranking Marcus Mariota as a QB1 option are over. He has essentially devolved into Justin Fields, just without the rushing yards. A lot of the blame can be placed on head coach Arthur Smith who has to be committing some sort of federal crime with how he has been using (more like not using Kyle Pitts) in the passing game.
The Falcons have a brutal matchup this week against a Tampa Bay defense that ranks fourth in DVOA and will be looking to bounce back from a two-game losing streak.
It’s unclear if either Mac Jones or Brian Hoyer will be able to suit up for Week 5. For now, I have Bailey Zappe projected to start. Whoever ends up starting will have a mouth-watering matchup against a putrid Lions defense.
Tier 8
Matt Ryan (@ DEN)
Justin Fields (@ MIN)
Kenny Pickett (@ BUF)
Cooper Rush (@ LAR)
Davis Mills (@ JAX)
The Kenny Pickett era in Pittsburgh finally began last week, and it could not have been more volatile. He went 10-for-13 for 120 yards and his three incompletions happened to be interceptions. Pickett also managed to rush for not one, but two rushing TDs. He carries mid-range QB2 upside given his rushing ability and the fact he is surrounded by talented pass catchers. However, this week he is more of a QB3 option due to the brutal matchup against the Bills.
Tier 9
Daniel Jones (@ GB)
Baker Mayfield (vs. SF)
Daniel Jones is questionable for Week 5 with an ankle injury. Even if he does suit up, it appears like his greatest asset, his rushing ability, could be compromised this week. Therefore, I’m treating Jones as a QB3 option unless we get reports that he will have no limitations from his ankle injury this week.
Fantasy RB Rankings & Tiers
Tier 1
Saquon Barkley (@ GB)
Christian McCaffrey (vs. SF)
Nick Chubb (vs. LAC)
Austin Ekeler (@ CLE)
Joe Mixon (@ BAL)
Derrick Henry (@ WAS)
Dalvin Cook (vs. CHI)
We have a massive Tier 1 at RB this week thanks to Jonathan Taylor being out and it being super close inside the top seven this week.
Right now, I have Saquon Barkley ranked as the top back for Week 5, but there is a chance when I update projections later in the week, any one of these players could end up at No. 1.
Tier 2
Leonard Fournette (vs. ATL)
Khalil Herbert (@ MIN)
Miles Sanders (@ ARI)
Jeffery Wilson (@ CAR)
Alvin Kamara (vs. SEA)
Jamaal Williams (@ NE)
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (vs. LV)
Aaron Jones (vs. NYG)
James Robinson (vs. HOU)
Dameon Pierce (@ JAX)
Josh Jacobs (@ KC)
We also have a massive Tier 2 this week!
I’m projecting both David Montgomery and D’Andre Swift as out again this week, which is why Khalil Herbert and Jamaal Williams are ranked so highly. If either Montgomery or Swift is able to return this week, it would send their backup down a handful of Tiers.
After inexplicitly featuring Rex Burkhead as the lead back in Week 1, the Texans have used Dameon Pierce for 89% of their rush attempts over the past 3 weeks. That is a Derrick Henry-eque command over the Texans backfield, and Pierce cashed in with a massive 14/131/1 rushing line last week. He also managed to post a 6/8/0 receiving line, thanks to a season-high 49% routes run rate.
The needle is pointing way up for Pierce, but we should lower our expectations this week as he faces a Jaguars defense that has been surprisingly good this season. However, Miles Sanders was able to post a 27/134/2 rushing line against the Jags last week, which is one of the reasons why I’m ranking Pierce as a mid-range RB2 this week.
Tier 3
Breece Hall (vs. MIA)
Rhamondre Stevenson (vs. DET)
James Conner (vs. PHI)
Breece Hall has officially taken over as the lead back for the Jets. I told you to have some patience with him and it’s finally about to pay off. Hall had nearly twice as many rush attempts as Michael Carter last week, 17-9. He also handled both goal-line carries, converting one of them into a game-winning touchdown with 18 seconds left in the game.
Hall is currently tied with Austin Ekeler for most targets among RBs, despite the fact Hall has only averaged a 41% routes run rate this season. He is coming off a season-high 61% routes run rate last week, which gives me confidence that he should be able to average 3-3.5 receptions a game going forward. Hall’s stock has already shot up after last week, but it’s going to shoot up even more after the next couple of weeks.
Stevenson is another RB whose stock is on the rise. He’s essentially splitting early-down work with Damien Harris while dominating the passing-down work. Stevenson carries low-end RB2 value against a weak Lions defense this week, but there is a chance his stock continues to climb and he becomes an every-week RB2 option.
Tier 4
Damien Harris (vs. DET)
Najee Harris (@ BUF)
A.J. Dillon (vs. NYG)
Ezekiel Elliott (@ LAR)
Devin Singletary (vs. PIT)
Najee Harris gets a significant downgrade this week thanks to a brutal matchup against the Bills that has the Steelers as 14-point underdogs on the road. The chances of Najee getting many goal-line chances here seem fairly low, and Kenny Pickett rushed for two TDs in his NFL debut, meaning the added competition for goal-line touches lowers Harris’ TD odds going forward.
The most concerning stat for Harris last week was the fact he saw 0 targets from Kenny Pickett. If Pickett continues to scramble at a high rate and refuses to throw to his RB, it’s going to be devastating for Harris’ stock. It will be put to the test this week in what should be a trailing game script.
Tier 5
J.K. Dobbins (vs. CIN)
Kareem Hunt (vs. LAC)
Travis Etienne (vs. HOU)
Rashaad Penny (@ NO)
Nyheim Hines (@ DEN)
Raheem Mostert (@ NYJ)
Melvin Gordon (vs. IND)
Nyheim Hines and Melvin Gordon are likely going to be their teams’ starting RB for TNF. Hines has been reduced to a pass-catching specialist the past couple of seasons, but he has operated as the lead back for the Colts at times pre-Taylor.
In 2020, when Taylor missed Week 12 due to COVID, it was Hines who led the Colts backfield with a 10/29/0 rushing line and chipped in 8 receptions for 66 yards. Thanks to his pass catching ability, he’s the only Colts RB I would trust this week as a RB3/Flex option.
Gordon was one of three RBs I gave an A grade to in my RB Upside Ratings before the season, considering he should provide RB3/Flex value even when the starter (Javonte Williams) is active but would offer high-end RB2 upside if Williams were ever to miss time. With Williams out for the season with a torn ACL, Gordon is set up to become the workhorse back for the Broncos and provide high-end RB2 value.
However, due to the fact that Gordon has now fumbled four times this season, there is a chance he could be leapfrogged by Mike Boone or Latavius Murray. I’m treating him as a RB3/Flex option this week, but with a solid performance, I would view him as a RB2 option the rest of the way.
Tier 6
Tyler Allgeier (@ TB)
Michael Boone (vs. IND)
Tony Pollard (@ LAR)
Antonio Gibson (vs. TEN)
Cordarrelle Patterson is out for the foreseeable future with a knee injury, which means Tyler Allgeier has a shot to become the Falcons workhorse back. We already caught a glimpse of how the Falcons are likely going to handle their backfield without Patterson based on their Week 4 usage after he left the game. Allgeier inherited much of Patterson’s receiving role, while Huntley operated as the team’s goal-line back.
Allgeier is going to provide RB3/Flex value in that type of role, but he could see his role grow over the coming weeks and sneak into the RB2 discussion. He reminds me of a discount James Conner and is fully capable of handling a bigger workload. We will see if the Falcons trust him enough to start giving him one.
Antonio Gibson stock has plummeted over the past couple weeks. Last week, his routes run rate fell to a season-low 20%, as J.D. McKissic is dominating the passing down work. This week, it’s likely that we see Brian Robinson make his season debut, which will certainly eat into Gibson’s early down role. I would try to sell Gibson while you might still be able to get a RB2/3 in return.
Tier 7
Darrell Henderson (vs. DAL)
Michael Carter (vs. MIA)
Cam Akers (vs. DAL)
Chase Edmonds (@ NYJ)
J.D. McKissic (vs. TEN)
Most of these RBs have seen their stock fall pretty significantly over the past couple weeks.
Both Rams RBs have struggled this season and the signing of Malcolm Brown could mean this turns into some sort of three-way RBBC in the near future. Chase Edmonds has seen Raheem Mostert leapfrog him as the Dolphins‘ lead back. That is a backfield that could end up being a back-and-forth battle for the rest of the season. Meanwhile, Michael Carter has been leapfrogged by Breece Hall and in Carter’s case, I don’t think he’s likely to be the lead back for the Jets again this season, sans a Hall injury.
Tier 8
Caleb Huntley (@ TB)
Mark Ingram (vs. SEA)
Huntley operated as the Falcons goal-line back after Patterson left the game due to a knee injury that landed him on the IR. Unfortunately, I don’t think that role will provide too much value this week as the Falcons have the second-lowest team total for Week 5.
Mark Ingram would end up shooting up to Tier 5 or 6 if Alvin Kamara is ruled out again this week. He would have less competition for touches with Latavius Murray now in Denver and will be facing a Charmin-soft Seahawks defense.
Tier 9
Phillip Lindsay (@ DEN)
Rachaad White (vs. ATL)
Kenneth Walker (@ NO)
Dontrell Hilliard (@ WAS)
Kenneth Gainwell (@ ARI)
Alexander Mattison (vs. CHI)
Justice Hill (vs. CIN)
Craig Reynolds (@ NE)
Isiah Pacheco (vs. LV)
Rex Burkhead (@ JAX)
Sony Michel (@ CLE)
Rachaad White is a back who should be rostered in most leagues (he is currently available in 73% of Yahoo! leagues). He is starting to eat into Leonard Fournette’s role and could potentially command enough touches to be treated as a RB3/Flex option, even when Fournette is active. He would become a RB2 option if Fournette were ever to miss time.
Fantasy WR Rankings & Tiers
Tier 1
Cooper Kupp (vs. DAL)
Kupp is on pace for 33 more receptions than last season. He is back to claiming Tier 1 all to himself.
Tier 2
Justin Jefferson (vs. CHI)
Stefon Diggs (vs. PIT)
Tier 3
Tyreek Hill (@ NYJ)
Ja’Marr Chase (@ BAL)
Davante Adams (@ KC)
Deebo Samuel (@ CAR)
Davante Adams erupted for a 9/101/1 receiving line last week but could lose 1-2 targets with Hunter Renfrow expected to return to action this week. Adams now has 100 or more receiving yards and/or a TD in all four games this season.
Tier 4
Amon-Ra St. Brown (@ NE)
A.J. Brown (@ ARI)
Courtland Sutton (vs. IND)
Amon-Ra St. Brown (ankle) wasn’t able to return to practice on Wednesday, putting his Week 5 status in serious jeopardy. I’m projecting him as if he’s suiting up much closer to 100% by Sunday, but it’s much more likely he falls in my rankings as the week goes on. You should be making backup plans for him again this week.
Tier 5
Mike Evans (vs. ATL)
Jaylen Waddle (@ NYJ)
D.K. Metcalf (@ NO)
Christian Kirk (vs. HOU)
Tee Higgins (@ BAL)
D.K. Metcalf might have to start taking the cart from the locker room to the field the way he has been shitting on opposing defenses. He has posted the WR6 score over the past two games and we need to start viewing him as a low-end WR1 option with Geno Smith and the Seahawks offense playing at a very high level right now. It’s likely he draws Marshon Lattimore coverage this week, making him more of a high-end WR2 option.
D.K. Metcalf is being carted off the field right now. pic.twitter.com/eGxSnvQhSp
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) October 2, 2022
Tier 6
Tyler Lockett (@ NO)
CeeDee Lamb (@ LAR)
Marquise Brown (vs. PHI)
Brandin Cooks (@ JAX)
Chris Godwin (vs. ATL)
Drake London (@ TB)
Adam Thielen (vs. CHI)
Chris Olave (vs. SEA)
Michael Pittman Jr. (@ DEN)
Godwin looks healthy enough to be considered as a mid-range WR2 option going forward.
Thielen has seen the playing time (97% routes run rate) and target rate (20% or higher in each of the past two games) where we can bank on him to average 4-5 receptions a game with this underlying usage going forward. He’s only scored one TD on the year, so he should offer a nice weekly floor/ceiling combo when he starts seeing positive TD regression. I view him as a low-end WR2 option heading into Week 5
Tier 7
Garrett Wilson (vs. MIA)
Curtis Samuel (vs. TEN)
Diontae Johnson (@ BUF)
Jerry Jeudy (vs. IND)
Mike Williams (@ CLE)
Amari Cooper (vs. LAC)
Keenan Allen (@ CLE)
Romeo Doubs (vs. NYG)
DeVonta Smith (@ ARI)
While Wilson ended up posting his worst stat line to date (2/41/0), I was very encouraged by his routes run rate jumping up to a season-high 88%. I was also encouraged by Zach Wilson in his season debut. The Jets face a Dolphins defense that currently ranks 31st in DVOA against the pass, and I’m projecting Garrett Wilson to bounce back with a big game here. I view him as a low-end WR2 option.
Doubs continues to impress as one of Aaron Rodgers’ top targets this season. He nearly had an even bigger day than his 5/47/1 stat line would suggest since he had a long TD overturned via a replay challenge. I view him as a low-end WR3 option who could eventually become an every-week WR2 option.
Tier 8
Robert Woods (@ WAS)
Allen Lazard (vs. NYG)
Terry McLaurin (vs. TEN)
Gabriel Davis (vs. PIT)
Juju Smith-Schuster (vs. LV)
Brandon Aiyuk (@ CAR)
Elijah Moore (vs. MIA)
Michael Thomas (vs. SEA)
Jakobi Meyers (vs. DET)
Rashod Bateman (vs. CIN)
It’s unclear if Gabe Davis’ ankle injury is the main cause of his recent struggles, but I’m expecting him to break out of his slump soon. The Bills just lost Jamison Crowder to a broken ankle and Isaiah McKenzie (concussion) is shaping up to be a game-time decision. Davis is right on the WR3/4 fringe right now, but I would stick with him if any sort of close calls with him because of his WR1 ceiling.
Tier 9
D.J. Moore (vs. SF)
Marvin Jones (vs. HOU)
Isaiah McKenzie (vs. PIT)
Zay Jones (vs. HOU)
Mack Hollins (@ KC)
Allen Robinson (vs. DAL)
Tyler Boyd (@ BAL)
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (vs. LV)
Jarvis Landry (vs. SEA)
Hunter Renfrow (@ KC)
Rondale Moore (vs. PHI)
Corey Davis (vs. MIA)
Darnell Mooney (@ MIN)
D.J. Moore and Allen Robinson have been downgraded to WR4 options until we see some signs of life from either.
Fantasy TE Rankings & Tiers
Tier 1
Travis Kelce (vs. LV)
Mark Andrews (vs. CIN)
The dropoff from Kelce and Andrews to the rest of the position is so significant, I will continue referring to Tier 2 and “Tier 2,” considering there is really more like a drop of 2-4 tiers from Tier 1 to 2.
Tier 2
Darren Waller (@ KC)
Tyler Higbee (vs. DAL)
Dallas Goedert (@ ARI)
George Kittle (@ CAR)
T.J. Hockenson (@ NE)
Tyler Higbee has emerged as a bonafide top-five TE thanks to his elite playing time (85% routes run rate) and target rate (24.5%).
Speaking of elite playing time rate, Dallas Goedert is coming off a game where he ran a route on 100% of Jalen Hurts dropbacks. It’s unheard of for a TE to ever hit a 100% routes run rate, but Goedert just did it. He has also seen a 19% target rate over the past 3 games which makes him a mid-range TE1.
T.J. Hockenson could jump up a couple of spots if Amon-Ra St. Brown misses another game.
Tier 3
Kyle Pitts (@ TB)
Zach Ertz (vs. PHI)
Pat Freiermuth (@ BUF)
David Njoku (vs. LAC)
Kyle Pitts stock continues to fall based on his underlying usage, with his routes run rate hit a season-low rate of 60% last week. He’s going to be more of a dicey low-end TE1 option unless — and until — we see his routes run rate go back over 70%
David Njoku was able to post another impressive stat line (5/73/0) and his underlying data supports him being able to keep this up. He could end up being one of the top in-season adds at TE this year.
Tier 4
Dalton Schultz (@ LAR)
Gerald Everett (@ CLE)
Logan Thomas (vs. TEN)
Tyler Conklin (vs. MIA)
Irv Smith Jr. (vs. CHI)
Dawson Knox (vs. PIT)
Evan Engram (vs. HOU)
Logan Thomas has seen his playing time trend up as he makes his way back from a 2021 ACL injury. Last week, he crossed the 70% barrier by logging a 73% routes run rate. I think we could see him clear 80% in the coming weeks. With rookie Jahan Dotson looking iffy to suit up for Week 5, Thomas could see an extra 1-2 targets.
Tier 5
Taysom Hill (vs. SEA)
Robert Tonyan Jr. (vs. NYG)
Cameron Brate (vs. ATL)
Hayden Hurst (@ BAL)
Cole Kmet (@ MIN)
Hunter Henry (vs. DET)
Taysom Hill remains a boom/bust TE2 option. He currently ranks as the TE14 despite only having a 1/2/0 receiving line on the season, which pretty well sums up the Taysom Hill experience.
Tier 6
Mo Alie-Cox (@ DEN)
Juwan Johnson (vs. SEA)
Will Dissly (@ NO)
O.J. Howard (@ JAX)
Harrison Bryant (vs. LAC)
Mike Gesicki (@ NYJ)
Noah Fant (@ NO)
Austin Hooper (@ WAS)
Eric Saubert (vs. IND)
O.J. Howard could be a sneaky streaming option at TE this week if Brevin Jordan is held out again this week. The Texans decided to release Pharoah Brown, meaning there’s one less TE that Howard has to compete for playing time with. We also have to remember that Howard joined the Texans during Week 1, so it was going to take him a few weeks to learn the playbook. Last week he ran a route on 67% of dropbacks and carries massive upside if he can ever start to average 60-70% routes run rate.