Padres vs. Mets Game 1 Odds
| Padres Odds | +132 |
| Mets Odds | -156 |
| Over/Under | 6 |
| Time | 8:07 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
| Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
After blowing a 10-game lead in the National League East division, the New York Mets find themselves at home against the San Diego Padres in the Wild Card Round.
The playoffs aren’t the time to hold anything back, but the Mets will attempt to win this series in two games without Jacob deGrom, but in order to do that they they need to take Game 1.
Moving on in two games would give the Mets a better chance in the next round with deGrom starting the series, but we’ll have to see how they do against the Padres first.
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The Parlay (+450):
- Mets Moneyline
- Jeff McNeil 2+ Total Bases
- Max Scherzer 6+ Strikeouts
Same-Game Parlay – Padres vs. Mets
Mets Moneyline
I like the Mets here. The Padres made their big move at the deadline to acquire Juan Soto in a trade with the Nationals, but any momentum they had from that was quickly dashed by shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr.’s performance enhancing drug suspension.
Without Tatis, the Padres don’t have the offensive advantage against the Mets, who are also missing outfielder Starling Marte. With ace Max Scherzer on the mound for the Mets compared to Yu Darvish and his 4.23 xFIP for the Padres, I have to give the Mets the advantage here.
New York is also at home and the environment will favor them towards the end of the game, especially once Edwin Diaz comes in with trumpets playing.
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Jeff McNeil 2+ Total Bases
McNeil can cover this in a few ways. He could get two singles or a double, obviously. I like his chances here in a big game at home against Darvish.
Darvish is a strikeout pitcher with a 25% K%, but McNeil is one of the tougher hitters in all of baseball to strikeout as he has a 10% K% against right-handed pitching this season.
McNeil only has a .152 ISO against right-handed pitching this year, but over the last three years he’s had a .176 ISO against cutters and that’s the pitch Darvish throws the most to left-handed hitters.
Max Scherzer 6+ Strikeouts
Scherzer is going to be psyched out of his mind for this game, his first in the playoffs with the Mets. I expect nothing but a vintage Scherzer performance as he continues to build a hall of fame resume.
The Padres aren’t a strikeout-heavy team this year against right-handed pitching, but Scherzer is a big time strikeout pitcher with a 30% K rate this season.
Six is a good number in this spot as I expect the Mets to lean on Scherzer and push him deep into the game allowing him more opportunities for strikeouts.
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