Oklahoma vs Texas Odds & Picks: How to Bet the Red River Showdown

Oklahoma vs Texas Odds

It may have lost some of its luster with Oklahoma looking as vulnerable as ever, but this is still the Red River Showdown, and we can be sure to see fireworks one way or another.

Last season treated us to one of the biggest comebacks in the storied rivalry, as Oklahoma scored 25 unanswered points in the second half in a 55-48 victory.

But that was last year, and now Oklahoma fields a whole new identity with the departures of Lincoln Riley and Caleb Williams.

Will Texas be able to snap the Sooners’ four-game winning streak? Or will Oklahoma make it five in a row in an upset? Let’s find out.

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I can’t imagine how an Oklahoma fan felt watching the game last weekend. The Sooners were a seven-point favorite and got absolutely demolished by a trendy sleeper pick in the TCU Horned Frogs.

As if it couldn’t get any worse, starting quarterback Dillon Gabriel was knocked out of the game on a late hit and has yet to be cleared for a return.

TCU defender Jamoi Hodge was ejected for this hit on Dillon Gabriel

pic.twitter.com/jTeLoUetRV

— PFF College (@PFF_College) October 1, 2022

In the meantime, head coach Brent Venables announced that either Davis Beville, General Booty or Nick Evers will start the game against Texas. Beville filled in last game and finished with 50 yards on 7-of-16 passing.

Assuming Oklahoma will play a little more conservative as the quarterback settles into the role, we may see a heavier dose of running backs Jovantae Barnes and Eric Gray.

Oklahoma is one of the better rushing units in the nation, ranking 14th in Rush Success and 10th in Line Yards. If Oklahoma wants to keep pace with Texas, it will need to make every offensive possession count until its defense proves it can stop a nosebleed.

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Texas, your prodigal son has returned.

After getting knocked out of the Alabama game with an injury, Quinn Ewers is set to make his return on Saturday against Oklahoma.

While Hudson Card played respectably in his own right, Ewers is a step above in terms of production.

Bringing a more dynamic presence to the backfield, Ewers will look to keep the shaky Sooners’ defense on its toes. Oklahoma was unable to limit TCU’s explosiveness last week and gave up 668 yards in a 55-24 loss.

While Ewers will command attention, we’d be hard-pressed to forget about the potential No. 1 running back in the nation — Bijan Robinson.

This run from Bijan Robinson last year vs. OU was galvanizing! pic.twitter.com/wm4aTLKRbY

— Hook'em Headlines (@HookemHeadlines) October 5, 2022

If the offensive line can generate a push and open holes, Robinson will have plenty of room to work with, as Oklahoma’s Defensive Rush Success is 97th in the nation.

Defending the run may be more important than ever as questions swirl about Oklahoma’s offensive attack with Gabriel still out with an injury.

Assuming Oklahoma goes a little heavier on the run to start, Texas’ top-10 ranking in Defensive Rush Success will be the metric to watch to avoid the upset.

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Oklahoma vs Texas Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Oklahoma and Texas match up statistically:

Texas Offense vs. Oklahoma Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	60	97
Line Yards	93	66
Pass Success	41	74
Pass Blocking**	24	86
Havoc	43	50
Finishing Drives	33	68
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

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Oklahoma Offense vs. Texas Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	14	10
Line Yards	10	31
Pass Success	48	71
Pass Blocking**	30	14
Havoc	16	85
Finishing Drives	23	62
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

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Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	44	29
PFF Coverage	28	77
SP+ Special Teams	35	8
Seconds per Play	25.8 (48)	21.0 (5)
Rush Rate	52.6% (74)	58.1% (33)

Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

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Oklahoma vs Texas Betting Pick

When bettors hear the words “Red River Showdown,” they instantly think about the over.

With the over already taking money, I will shift my focus elsewhere.

I will be backing the Longhorns in the return of Ewers, who is poised to remind everyone what he almost accomplished against Alabama.

Oklahoma has holes throughout its defense — which was made apparent against TCU — and I am hard pressed to see how the Sooners will limit Texas’ weapons.

Robinson may run wild against one of the worst Defensive Rush Success units in football, especially if the offensive line can find some life and generate a push to give Robinson room.

The Oklahoma offense will take on a different look — a more conservative approach — with a new quarterback under center. That approach may dig the Sooners into a hole should they get pushed off the field on early drives.

Take Texas at -7 or better and look for a possible live over should either unit stall early with a rusty Ewers and new-look Sooners’ offense.

Pick: Texas -7

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