Fresno State vs. Boise State Odds & Picks for Week 6: Can Broncos Cover Saturday’s Spread?

Fresno State vs. Boise State Odds

Just one week ago, Boise State’s season seemed in serious jeopardy.

The Broncos were 2-2 with losses to Oregon State and UTEP. They had decided to fire their offensive coordinator Tim Plough shortly after starting quarterback Hank Bachmeier opted to enter the transfer portal immediately and depart from the team.

Boise State had no offensive coordinator, a quarterback whose first career pass attempts came this season against Oregon State and a conference game in less than a week.

Enter the Broncos’ saving grace: Dirk Koetter, a familiar face of the program. Koetter was 26-10 during his previous stint at Boise from 1998-2000.

Fresno State is in need of a saving grace of its own after last week’s 19-14 loss to UConn. It marked the Huskies’ first win over an FBS team since 2019. The loss moved the Bulldogs to 1-3 on the season, their lone win coming against FCS Cal Poly.

The last time Fresno State played in Boise, the famous blue turf was unnoticeable, covered in snow for the 2017 Mountain West Championship game.

The Bulldogs edged out a 19-16 win in overtime that year to win the conference.

Boise State has found its way back on track after a shaky start to the season. Can the Bulldogs do the same?

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Fresno State will again be without its two captains — quarterback Jake Haener and safety Evan Williams — against the Broncos.

They join a growing list of players with injuries on a week-to-week basis, including offensive tackle Dontae Bull, linebacker Raymond Scott and wide receiver Josh Kelly.

It is not yet known if they will travel with the team to Boise.

In Haener’s absence, sophomore Logan Fife will get his second start for the Bulldogs. Against UConn, he went 16-for-27, throwing for just 157 yards while giving up two interceptions and one fumble.

He was also sacked twice as the Bulldogs went 0-for-7 on third downs.

I wish I could say they can’t do worse than that, but they played UConn, one of the worst teams in the nation.

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The Broncos’ new offensive coordinator and quarterback took some time to find their rhythm against San Diego State, going into halftime down 13-0. But once they did, they were off to the races, scoring 35 unanswered points in the second half to grab their second conference win of the season.

Despite the chaos within the program through the first four games, Boise now sits atop the Mountain Division rankings as the only team at 2-0.

The rushing offense is the driving force of the Broncos’ offense, and they found their success in the second half against SDSU. Boise ranks second in the Mountain West in rush yards, average yards per game and rush yards per game.

Expect the Broncos to continue their success on the ground against a Fresno State defense that is allowing 175 rush yards per contest.

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Fresno State vs. Boise State Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Fresno State and Boise State match up statistically:

Fresno State Offense vs. Boise State Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	95	14
Line Yards	102	37
Pass Success	69	1
Pass Blocking**	87	19
Havoc	71	16
Finishing Drives	112	26
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

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Boise State Offense vs. Fresno State Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	102	76
Line Yards	73	100
Pass Success	105	88
Pass Blocking**	71	102
Havoc	101	69
Finishing Drives	78	95
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

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Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	110	7
PFF Coverage	94	26
SP+ Special Teams	84	83
Seconds per Play	26.7 (72)	26.3 (63)
Rush Rate	46.0% (108)	55.0% (57)

Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

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Fresno State vs. Boise State Betting Pick

Both teams bring a lot of questions on offense into this game, but it’s a very different story when you look at their defenses.

Not counting three special teams touchdowns scored against Boise, the defense is giving up just 14.8 points per contest. The Broncos lead the Mountain West in sacks and fewest yards allowed on the season while ranking among the top three in points allowed.

When it comes to third downs, they rank among the best in the nation, currently fourth and only giving up a first down 25% of the time.

On the other hand, Fresno State has allowed two game-winning drives to UConn and Oregon State. The Bulldogs are giving up 386 yards and 26.5 points per game, ranking them out outside the top 75 in both.

Not to mention, they are second to last among Mountain West teams in sacks allowed.

Boise and Fresno’s rivalry dates back to 2001, when the Broncos joined the WAC and upset No. 8 Fresno State in their first conference meeting. In 2005, the idea for a trophy to commemorate the rivalry was presented by two separate Dairy Groups who took an interest in the schools.

And while California ranks No. 1 among the nations leading dairy producers, the Milk Can has rarely spent time in the Golden State. Fresno State has not won the Milk Can since 2018, while Boise leads the all-time series 16-7.

Koetter never had a chance to win the Milk Can during his time at Boise; he didn’t play Fresno State at all from 1998-2000. Back the Broncos to cover the spread and keep the Milk Can at home Saturday night.

Pick: Boise State -9.5 or Better

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